JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Cold seems pretty lodged in as the -NAO exerts some influence. NAM3 trend Starting to be a little more.optimistic back this way for this one... lots of time to reverse the positive trends tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 Early precip trend, still snowing in Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 Parent low trending west/slower, see it colder too over NNJ/NEPA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Cold seems pretty lodged in as the -NAO exerts some influence. NAM3 trend We may actually have a snowstorm for the Northeast on our hands.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 40 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Starting to be a little more.optimistic back this way for this one... lots of time to reverse the positive trends tho. Yeah, our pessimistic posters haven't chimed in, they are waiting for the rug pull. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Yeah, our pessimistic posters haven't chimed in, they are waiting for the rug pull. Our posters right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 That's actually heavy snow down by @Miller A. Wet, sloppy, warm, heavy snow. Might be the heaviest on the scale. Column is cold until you hit near the surface... which is 35 of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 Still pushing a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 Trending colder at 850 This is as precip is coming down heavier. The problem in EPA is that there is a warm nose 800-750mb. So when you don't see it above freezing on 700,850 and 925 layers but sleet or mix is showing up, check the skews. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That's actually heavy snow down by @Miller A. Wet, sloppy, warm, heavy snow. Might be the heaviest on the scale. Column is cold until you hit near the surface... which is 35 of course. Close to isothermal just below freezing, from H7 to close to the surface can produce good rates. Might pack itself down. Power outage stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Close to isothermal just below freezing, from H7 to close to the surface can produce good rates. Might pack itself down. Power outage stuff. And the highest omega is in or close to the DGZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Some probabilities from 1pm Mon - 1pm Tue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 A good look at the speedy flow between the Hudson Bay vortex, and the western Caribbean ridge. After staring at this for a few minutes, I now feel like I should use this view more. You can kinda see how systems moving west, along the southern edge of the ridge, erode the western edge, as it rounds to the north. These brief erosions look like the best storm windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 SREFs ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 It would be funny if the Poconos ended up the jackpot. Hour 57 SREF comp to last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 8:32 PM, JDClapper said: It's intriguing how consistent Boston-ish area is being bullseye'd the past couple days. I'd be sad if I was them, b/c we all know how it USUALLY works out beging 4-6 days out. Now... where will it actually bullseye .. farther south, or father north? 33 minutes ago, MaineJay said: It would be funny if the Poconos ended up the jackpot. Hour 57 SREF comp to last run. Yup haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 38 minutes ago, MaineJay said: It would be funny if the Poconos ended up the jackpot. Hour 57 SREF comp to last run. Rain pops even back my way are getting closer to single digits every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 For shiggles.. long range HRRR. ☃️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: For shiggles.. long range HRRR. ☃️ wow we're that close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 The slight trends towards colder/snowier solutions continue. NAM 12 NAM3 HIRES FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Yup haha Telejunkie also suggested the other day there would/could be changes because not all of the energies were sufficiently sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Some first guesses from CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 And their discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 EFI keeps sliding the best chances at anomalous snow SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, MaineJay said: EFI keeps sliding the best chances at anomalous snow SE. Stretch and HV for ftw???!?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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