JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 0z Euro Wow, like 100% prob of measurable white in interior Central PA, 0z EPS says. A decent minor event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Wow, like 100% prob of measurable white in interior Central PA, 0z EPS says. A decent minor event. NWS says nearly 100% chance of rain though. The focus by early next week will be on a southern stream shortwave and associated surface low lifting out of the southern plains. All current guidance tracks this system west of Pa, likely resulting in mild weather with a period of rain in the Monday to early Tuesday time frame. A blocking high over northern New England could maintain just enough cold air for an initial period of mixed precip, mainly over the north central mountains. Regardless of precip type, gusty winds appear likely Monday night through Wednesday as the deep low passes nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Wow, like 100% prob of measurable white in interior Central PA, 0z EPS says. A decent minor event. This is a rough one for PA, especially further west you go with the low cutting initially but definitely could pull some snow out if can stay cold long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) In other news, surprise snow down this way. Snowing as good as it has at any point this winter. Surprise 1-2"?? Edited February 25, 2023 by JDClapper 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 SREFs looks like they ticked a hair cooler. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 20230225_081422.mp4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: In other news, surprise snow down this way. Snowing as good as it has at any point this winter. Surprise 1-2"?? We just started flaking micro flakes at 15F. I think this will surprise some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: We just started flaking micro flakes at 15F. I think this will surprise some. Definitely surprised down here. 1" of pure fluff.. we're riding the line of snow/no snow at this point though. Hey, beggars can't be choosers! 🙂 Edited February 25, 2023 by JDClapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 20 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Definitely surprised down here. 1" of pure fluff.. we're riding the line of snow/no snow at this point though. Hey, beggars can't be choosers! 🙂 Lol yeah that radar has greens coming to you or literally zero just under it, no in-between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Lol yeah that radar has greens coming to you or literally zero just under it, no in-between lol That's a wrap in town .. quick surprise 1". Heck yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 NAM 850 temp trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Catskills seem like the jackpot on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 44 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Catskills seem like the jackpot on this one. Agreed, all of ulster county which is immediately N of i84 has been modeled for days now on all OPs and ENS for a 6" storm. Best of season for HV people just Noeth of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Catskills seem like the jackpot on this one. You should get a solid snowfall out of it too tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: You should get a solid snowfall out of it too tho. The path of the low isn't ideal for me, but there is (as currently modeled) good connection to the northern stream feature that kicks it. So QPF will be a little constrained, but ratios could be pretty good. I expect this to be 3-5°F too warm at the surface, for what's depicted. If the Poconos can trend a bit cooler, they could have some real upside potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Awesome, another "look out the window and see what happens" event. Literally, every single storm this year here. 😅 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1/2" so far with moderate snow. Radar looks good wouldn't be surprised if we got over an inch or close to 2". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 We also got a quick 1” surprise here. It all fell at 20F. Canadian/euro had been modeling Tuesday’s event cooler than gfs/nam all along, and now the latter is trending in the direction of the former it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Would have liked a little more qpf but at least its all snow imby for a change. Trending south with the precip. GFS remains more juicy Edited February 25, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Touch colder in the SREFs for our region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Touch colder in the SREFs for our region.. Definitely trending cooler. Yesterday there was barely any winter pops... now, they are the majority, for nearly the entire event back here on the line. Few plumes for CPA, NEPA and SNY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 NAM trend, this is about 8-10 hours before the precip arrives in PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Cold seems pretty lodged in as the -NAO exerts some influence. NAM3 trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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