Arctic Sea Ice

[MaineJay]

Nares strait still open.

[so_whats_happening]

Comparison of current year to the last 2 years through our triple La Nina.

There does seem to be a small uptick in above 3 meter ice in Archipelago region as well as slightly thicker ice over the last couple years trying to build in this region. The Atlantic front is just bad still.

Typically from this point we add on maybe a .5 meter to a full meter onto ice thickness before we reverse around mid April. Overall would like to see much more widespread 2 meter thick ice across the whole basin before we end the season from taking a look at the 12month gif we see that ice lower than 2 meters is usually all but wiped except for some random situations. With an SSW occurring we will have rather warm and potential hostile conditions until things potentially settle down a bit later in march. With the potential idea of more neutral to slightly warmer than neutral ENSO at play for summer into winter lets see how the ice responds. 

[so_whats_happening]

Antarctic just wow right now. Lowest on recorded history and just a shell of itself.

Edited February 19, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

Baffin bay is probably benefiting from thick ice consistently flowing down Nares straight.  Running out of time for it to freeze.

 Looks like someone flushed the toilet.

[Hiramite]

I don’t know if non-iphoners can access an Apple News link so I included a direct link but you need a subscription. The headlines read…

Arctic ice has seen an ‘irreversible’ thinning since 2007, study says

New research suggests the decline was a fundamental change unlikely to be reversed this century — perhaps proof that the planet has passed an alarming climactic tipping point

 

https://apple.news/Aq9o7xwF_TJiHDtj7vppJRg
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/15/artic-sea-irreversible-low/

[MaineJay]

As we head into the "melting season", it looks like we have a bit of a pattern which would foster increased effort of ice through the Fram Strait, which has been ongoing.

   While ice metrics will begin (or have begun) to fall, it's really only the peripheral areas that will be melting.   

 We are seeing a a continued -NAO. the Greenland high couples with troffing in the east Siberian and Laptev sea regions.  This creates flow from the Pacific to the Atlantic.  

   Thinner ice is more susceptible to winds, simply because there's less weight, and more importantly less "drag" from the ocean.  Winds are becoming more important to ice movement than ocean currents.

  

[so_whats_happening]

We are quickly approaching the typical sea ice thickness seasonal peak. It will be interesting watching just how quickly things reverse in the Arctic circle namely how quickly snow melt occurs and where the pattern sets up allowing the weakness in the ice to show.

Here is a snapshot of this year and the last 2 years of where we stand with the ice pack.

[Hiramite]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are quickly approaching the typical sea ice thickness seasonal peak. It will be interesting watching just how quickly things reverse in the Arctic circle namely how quickly snow melt occurs and where the pattern sets up allowing the weakness in the ice to show.

Here is a snapshot of this year and the last 2 years of where we stand with the ice pack.

 

I guess I'm surprised in how similar the extent and thickness is during the last three years.  I never compared before so I don't know if that's to be expected from year to year for short intervals.

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are quickly approaching the typical sea ice thickness seasonal peak. It will be interesting watching just how quickly things reverse in the Arctic circle namely how quickly snow melt occurs and where the pattern sets up allowing the weakness in the ice to show.

Here is a snapshot of this year and the last 2 years of where we stand with the ice pack.

Beaufort looks weak in the south, but might have some thicker ice to the north to buttress as melting progresses. Lot of thick ice along Greenland speaking to increased Fram export.

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/4/2023 at 6:46 AM, Hiramite said:

I guess I'm surprised in how similar the extent and thickness is during the last three years.  I never compared before so I don't know if that's to be expected from year to year for short intervals.

Here are some other years to add to the mix. Basically the idea is that most of these are virtually the same except a few years where ice was weaker or slightly stronger. The overall process of freezing and the timeframe in which it occurs is relatively unchanged the biggest change and therefore the lack in sea ice thickness we have now is due to warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere around the arctic ( probably highly correlated to the amount of warmth being seen in the oceans within the region). This takes waters much longer to get rid of the remaining heat before freezing so freezing season still starts from about mid September on just the waters are unable to cool quick enough leading to later ice formation compared to 30 plus years ago. Another big change has been how quickly snowfall goes around the arctic and how late snowfall gets going (this one is not always true, highly variable start time). We have been removing snow across the high latitudes rather quickly at the end of seasons which allows the ground and nearby oceans to warmup quicker creating the positive feedback loop and making the situation even worse.

To put this into perspective we have not doubled CO2 since the early/mid 1800s where we sat around 270-280 PPM currently we are at 420-425 PPM averaged annually. Doubling equates to a global temp rise of about 2C obviously it is not evenly distributed but that is the general understanding, what could be throwing wrenches at us is our misunderstanding of the impact of the increase in water vapor into the atmosphere (particularly lower where we know it kicks in and out in a couple days which is the resonance time of water vapor but we don't necessarily measure the change year to year of how much humidity/ moisture has risen/decreased we tend to focus on temps) and methane increases with a resonance time of about 10 years as some of the short term areas of extreme warming years (especially in situations like a La Nina where globally we should be cooling). We can pick out the humidity if we really wanted to but the general consensus is that with a warming atmosphere there is more water to be held, I believe it is for every 1C temp change we add about 7% water vapor ( this goes to about adding maybe another 1% over time to atmospheric distribution of water in 'Air' at any given time). So if 'Air' is 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen the remaining 1% is mixed gases of which CO2 is about 0.03-4% and water vapor is about the same if not slightly more of that 1% mixed gases. We need to remember that this is average values and doesn't speak for localized areas, just like temp overall is about 1.3-1.4C above pre industrial times areas regionally are not seeing the same results. I think that is what confuses people a bit on climate and weather.

Anyways back to ice I can't find rhyme or reason other than summer conditions being the main culprit for the lower seasonal max years. Quicker melt of snow means quicker attack on ice but atmospheric patterns could dictate otherwise it really is a rather complex subject but again the overall idea is that we warm we remove more ice thickness. When this next potential step down is anybody's guess. Would like to see Nina years really make a come back to potentially cool things off a bit but that doesn't seem to be happening but of course us in the mid latitudes would like La Nina's to disappear lol. Unfortunately these do not go past about 2015, would have to use piomass data and without my own computer right now I don't have past data.

Edited April 7, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

The two areas to watch for the ability for sea ice to gain thickness in winter and have retention in the summer are how the Beaufort and Laptev Seas look at the end of the season. If those areas are weak we stand a much better chance at getting the ball rolling to some of the more lower extent years for summers.

[so_whats_happening]

Wow the Antarctic is just not looking good as we get close to southern hemisphere winter solstice, still oddly enough the area with the fairly above average readings was near the volcanic eruption back at the beginning of 2022. Meanwhile up north things are holding ok overall no major news to talk on at this point. If we see anything it usually is within the next month where start to see more potential issues arise. We haven't had a bad preconditioning season so far despite NW Canada being on fire overall the idea has been to hold near average if not slightly below average 2M temps. For extent and area in the northern hemisphere we have been squarely on 2010s average for quite some time.

Edited June 13, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

Pretty impressive storm over the Rus side of the ice.  Looks like a fairly heavily occluded storm, so it might be a mix of rain and snow spiralling around it.  This look shows wet snow as the darker reds, areas with many melt ponds are close to black.  Fresh snow would be more orange or peach colored.

I always get excited when there are multiple clouds free days north of Svalbard.  The Yermak plateau is in the area near the interesting daily (tidal?) feature that anticyclones of that area, and heads eastward.   For reference north is down here.  Interesting oceanic features can also be seen near the mouth of the Frame Strait (right hand side) and along the north shore of Svalbard.

[StretchCT]

This is Antarctic but I didn’t see any place for it. 

[so_whats_happening]

Im actually really impressed with how well the Atlantic front has been holding up of late. The Pacific side unfortunately is where a lot of heat can build up over the summer so a slow advancement as we get into refreeze season is expected unless we cool off rather drastically come September then we go thin ice across the region and slow build up from there with heat still being trapped underneath. Would much rather it cool down and slowly build ice to help strip at least some heat out of the ocean.

 

We have about a month until refreeze season is set to begin and with temps around 80N staying cooler than average we probably wont see too much more in the way of melting at high latitudes and just fringe melting. Some forecasts suggest a rather cool basin overall by the end of the month while mid latitudes warm up which would be good for ice retention going forward. Maybe we see an increase this year if all else holds, weird that in past El Nino years we usually roast the ice.

[MaineJay]

Looking like 5th lowest extent this year, I believe area is 2nd lowest however.

The Laptev-Kara-Atlantic sectors benefited from the carnage in the East someone, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas.

Low level winds really explain well what happened.

[Hiramite]

“Riddle of varying warm water inflow in the Arctic now solved”…..

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-riddle-varying-inflow-arctic.html#:~:text=Apparently%2C the phenomenon is caused by an unusual,stationary high-pressure areas%2C also known as blocking highs.

[StretchCT]

On 7/25/2023 at 12:25 PM, StretchCT said:

This is Antarctic but I didn’t see any place for it. 

Here's an update.Seems low.  https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2023/09/antarctic-sets-a-record-low-maximum-by-wide-margin/

Edited September 27, 2023 by StretchCT

[MaineJay]

Big hole in the Chukchi sea still.  Captain Cook couldn't penetrate the ice north if 70° in September 1778. It had dire consequences after deciding to go back to Hawaii, which didn't go so well for Jimmy.

[so_whats_happening]

Looks like volume took a big hit from last year to current view.

[MaineJay]

On 12/18/2023 at 2:00 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like volume took a big hit from last year to current view.

Fram export might go into high gear and send a bunch of ice to it's doom.  Though extent numbers may look inflated.

[so_whats_happening]

17 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Fram export might go into high gear and send a bunch of ice to it's doom.  Though extent numbers may look inflated.

Yea with the rumblings of a SSW the Arctic is going to be in for some strong transport events. Hope it can survive more than we think it will. What is nice is the Barents, Greenland, and Norwegian sea aren't on fire like we have seen so maybe a slow demise? Hopefully the thicker ice near the Archipelago aren't moved by this then we are just adding insult to injury.

[so_whats_happening]

GFS has an extended period of strong Fram export coming up while the Euro does have it with varying intensity but only for about a 4-5 day period versus GFS going for a solid week.

Here is the GFS ill post Euro later on at 00z.

Overall less thick ice around the CAA, but more thick ice in the Beaufort and ESS regions. Also a little more spread out across the Atlantic side. There is hope we can get to a solid 1.5-2m thickness across much of Beaufort and ESS regions with the Chuckchi closing early.

Lets see how much gets flushed through the Fram in the next week.

[so_whats_happening]

Here seems to be a reasonable sea ice drift loop

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim_v2/index.uk.php

[so_whats_happening]

@MaineJay

With the +NAO pattern showing up this could be a good sign for the arctic less outflow of cold, less fram export, and more pushing of thickness toward the beaufort.

The systems that do form do not look terribly strong either so maybe just maybe a more positive shift to close out the month. So while the extent into the barrents is a nice change up I would much rather see thickness increases.

We will probably see a return of the -NAO and some more fram export as we go into the second week of February as we get some tropospheric signs from the latest Stratospheric minor reversal situation. We had a poor spring/summer/fall around the CAA unfortunately things took a big hit.