ElectricStorm Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Whoa moderate risk! 45 hatched wind area, I'm back in the enhanced. I'll have to go back and take a look later but I believe this might be the first moderate risk in OK in February since 2009 (if it's still there on the day 1 outlook which it should be) Edited February 25, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 25, 2023 AMA AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 25, 2023 Impressive event whether it's the squall or the winds behind it. Window for discrete/semi-discrete supercell is small but I can't imagine it'll take long for one to develop based on the shear. I see SPC also mentioned the potential for a strong tornado in this small window. Could easily go without seeing one but certainly worth mentioning. I think it would be somewhere between where the 5% tornado starts and where the 45% wind starts. Very small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Excited to see 0z soundings. But not more excited than seeing tomorrows 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Got some more work to do in the enhanced/moderate risk area Edited February 26, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Got some more work to do in the enhanced/moderate risk area What does the pictures show? I can't see it since School Chromebooks does not like Imgur at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: What does the pictures show? I can't see it since School Chromebooks does not like Imgur at all! 00z soundings at Amarillo and Norman https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/23022600_OBS/ Edited February 26, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 Safe to say we probably won't see model kinematics like this again in the Plains this year, though we often don't need something so extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Safe to say we probably won't see model kinematics like this again in the Plains this year, though we often don't need something so extreme. Dixie Alley kind of wind field. Sure hope there's not a localized area where there's more low-level instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 36 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Safe to say we probably won't see model kinematics like this again in the Plains this year, though we often don't need something so extreme. Goodness gracious! I do sadly think that we are going to see something like this in the Plains later this year as the La Nina dies away, the Plains is overdue for a nasty Spring Season, it's been generally quiet for the past 3 years in the Spring. (Also deciphered the location to be ENE of Watonga, OK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 00z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 It looks like that it's safe to say that February 28th has no severe weather from this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Synoptic winds have arrived. Breezy southerly winds now. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAMA.html Edited February 26, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 Enhanced got expanded and a 10% hatched tor was introduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Moderate risk expanded for wind, 10% hatched for tornadoes maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Today is no joke. Red flag warning in the west, a high wind warning for 40-45 mph sustained winds gusting to 70, and obviously this severe threat. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Amarillo TX 829 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 OKZ001-002-TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317-262230- /O.CON.KAMA.HW.W.0006.230226T1800Z-230227T0800Z/ Cimarron-Texas-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson- Oldham-Potter-Carson-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Palo Duro Canyon- Including the cities of Panhandle, Masterson, Dawn, Amarillo, Bootleg, White Deer, Hereford, Canyon, Four Way, Skellytown, Wayside, Keyes, Hartley, Boys Ranch, Umbarger, Washburn, Dalhart, Dumas, Vega, Wildorado, Borger, Palo Duro Canyon State Park, Boise City, Goodnight, Romero, Stratford, Gruver, Channing, Ware, Conlen, Buffalo Lake, Bushland, Spearman, Guymon, Claude, and Pantex 829 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 40 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected. * WHERE...The western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. * WHEN...From Noon today to 2 AM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds may generate blowing dust, leading to greatly reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions. Edited February 26, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Moderate risk expanded for wind, 10% hatched for tornadoes maintained. Crap! I'm under the Moderate risk! Storm Shelter is ready though. There could be some room for a High Risk of Destructive Winds for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Crap! I'm under the Moderate risk! Storm Shelter is ready though. There could be some room for a High Risk of Destructive Winds for this. I don't think the SPC would introduce a high risk unless we got a 60% hatched for wind and/or the tornado threat was upped to at least 15%, that being said I don't think that happens, Either way definitely going to be a crazy day in the plains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Crap! I'm under the Moderate risk! Storm Shelter is ready though. There could be some room for a High Risk of Destructive Winds for this. There hasn't been a 60 hatched wind since 2014 so I doubt they upgrade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: There hasn't been a 60 hatched wind since 2014 so I doubt they upgrade 26 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I don't think the SPC would introduce a high risk unless we got a 60% hatched for wind and/or the tornado threat was upped to at least 15%, that being said I don't think that happens, Either way definitely going to be a crazy day in the plains! I know it's unlikely, but you never know. There are signs that the Dew Point is increasing across Northern Texas and into Oklahoma as the Moisture Return may have started to be well underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I know it's unlikely, but you never know. There are signs that the Dew Point is increasing across Northern Texas and into Oklahoma as the Moisture Return may have started to be well underway. Well I mean it's never impossible... Just very highly unlikely. 45 hatched though is no joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Sounding I pulled from the latest HRRR run. There's going to be some ridiculously enlarged hodographs out there later today, incredible vertical shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 26, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Well I mean it's never impossible... Just very highly unlikely. 45 hatched though is no joke None of the derechos over the past 15 years that stick out in our mind were high risk days. That brings up two points... high risks solely for wind are the most rare kind of high risk, and the high-end derechos we've seen were just moderate risk days. They easily could've verified as high risk days, but they weren't. I honestly wonder if there's a push to make 60% hatched wind days moderate risks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 15z HRRR The last few runs have been consistently showing a 2-3 hour period where we could definitely see a couple supercells, I doubt they'll go higher than 10% hatched but I could see a slight expansion of the 10% north along the Texas panhandle/OK border. Edited February 26, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Speaking of, the new outlook is out now lol. 10% hatched maintained and very very slightly expanded to the east, don't think it expanded north much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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