Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, TheRex said: Did any of the models show you getting a 1/2" or more? Just trying to figure out which model may have a better handle on this storm. I've been watching the oven mitt thumb area of Michigan (around Saginaw) as an indicator of how north the mixing line would get. According to wunderground radar, mix line is just barely north of Detroit....let alone close to Saginaw. Warmer models runs had the mixing covering nearly the entire thumb of Michigan...but there is still time for that to move. But don't think it really was suppose to once that line was setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, telejunkie said: I've been watching the oven mitt thumb area of Michigan (around Saginaw) as an indicator of how north the mixing line would get. According to wunderground radar, mix line is just barely north of Detroit....let alone close to Saginaw. Warmer models runs had the mixing covering nearly the entire thumb of Michigan...but there is still time for that to move. But don't think it really was suppose to once that line was setup.... So it looks like some of the areas may get less ice than expected back in Michigan. The 3K NAM is putting out some big freezing rain totals out to our west. I don't know if that means some people further south end up with unexpected freezing rain, which is probably worse. I do know one thing, I'm going out to gas the snowblower and make sure it cranks easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, TheRex said: Did any of the models show you getting a 1/2" or more? Just trying to figure out which model may have a better handle on this storm. Yeah, the short rangers were all in that Coating -1" range. No zr in town, which is what happens the majority of the time, so any amounts shown were overdone there. As @MDBlueridge would say, know your region. Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 Of courses I don't have my camera on me today. Phone shot. Eagle is trying to get an easy meal. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Starting to shower some nano-sized flakes about half an hour ago...as the radar seemed to dry up oddly enough. Woot, woot...just saw Burlington flipped me over to a Warning.... Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 302 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 VTZ011-021-231015- /O.UPG.KBTV.WW.Y.0011.230223T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KBTV.WS.W.0004.230223T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Fair Haven, Rutland, Springfield, and White River Junction 302 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Western Rutland and Eastern Windsor Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will occur tonight, before tapering off to a light wintry mix on Thursday. Expect visibilities under a half mile at times during the heaviest snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 BTV's most recent forecast discussion. It talks about the dangerous conditions tonight with little visibility at times. They mention near blizzard conditions tonight, but I don't think the wind will be blowing that hard during the overnight hours. I think tomorrow we may be dealing with blowing snow as winds increase. As @telejunkie alluded to, they increased QPF amounts for southern VT and upped snow totals. They bumped my forecast to 7"-11" for tonight. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 339 PM EST Wednesday... * Winter Storm Warning in effect this evening through Thursday afternoon. * Combination of heavy snow and mixed precipitation will make travel difficult for Thursday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds and blowing snow in the Saint Lawrence Valley will result in near zero visibility at times making even a short walk tonight potentially deadly. * Additional light snow accumulations and mixed precipitation are expected Thursday evening into Friday with cold, blustery conditions following Friday. The much discussed winter storm is on our doorstep currently moving through central New York State. Snow is expected to begin 6-11 PM local time this evening spreading from southwest to northeast. Main messages of hazardous travel conditions for the region remain true although some of the details changed marginally today. QPF increases across southern Vermont warranted more snowfall than previous forecast cycles and pushed western Rutland and eastern Windsor counties over the threshold of warning criteria. Also, increased the amount of ice in the early Thursday morning period where drizzle and periods of freezing rain are possible. A glaze to several hundredths of ice will be possible on top of the expected heavy snowfall. Blowing snow remains a threat for those in the Saint Lawrence Valley. Visibility will be nil at time tonight as heavy snow and winds create near blizzard conditions. Those heading outdoors could become disoriented and even a short walk could be deadly. Outside of some off-cycle 18Z CAM guidance, expected conditions didn`t change too much from previous runs. 12Z guidance continues to favor strong isentropic lift across an approaching frontal boundary that is expected to largely stay south of the region. NAM guidance has come more in line with global models in this regard although model atmospheric profiles continue to vary. Kept the large nod to NAM and CAMs for profiles to keep sleet and freezing precipitation in the forecast as winds aloft increase. Global models, GFS and blended guidance, remains too cold and doesn`t capture the warm nose as well. Main changes were an increase in QPF over southern Vermont resulting in more widespread 6-10 inches across Rutland/Windsor counties. Elsewhere, error bounds are creeping towards the higher end of the 8- 12 inches of snow expected with median values in the 10-11 inch area. From a probabilistic approach, models are favoring slightly more snow than previous runs, but not outside of the original forecast envelope. Some modest adjustments were made to ice accumulation which continues to be the element with the highest run- to-run variance. Could see some freezing drizzle farther north and east in the mid/upper level dry slot early Thursday while freezing rain becomes increasingly possible for southern Vermont later into Thursday as cold air sags southward. The result was a light glaze up to around 0.1" of ice behind tonights heavy snow. Otherwise, cold air advection will increase Friday with blustery conditions expected as northerly winds gust to around 20 mph. Ambient air temperatures will drop with highs from around 10 degrees into the mid/upper teens. Winds and low temperatures will create wind chills from the negative single digits to the positive single digits in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 Really wish my driveway was a little firmer. The top inch or so is definitely soft, could make snowblowing harder than it should be. Thinking there will be a battle near me (hopefully further NE), between that cold, relatively dry feed from the NE. The cold should help ratios, but it is too dry, that'll offset to some degree. GYX map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Took off early, saw it all on the way home. Rain and 40 at Long Wharf, snow mixing in Milford and along the Merritt. Just snow in Monroe, covering the ground in spots at 32°. To a mix of sleet and snow when I took the garbage cans in. Deck temp 36, but car temp was 32 and surrounding stations 33/34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) Some snow showers here, waiting for it to kick off. Call me impressed, check out the warnings out there. Not a SNE storm but hope you guys get hit good up north! Good luck MJ, hope that warm nose can be kept at bay up there. Stretch, you thinking sleetfest or more ZR down your way? Edited February 22, 2023 by tool483 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Precip down to a drizzle at 34° 52 minutes ago, tool483 said: Stretch, you thinking sleetfest or more ZR down your way? Kinda thinking we're done. Maybe it gets to 32 and there's some fr drizzle but the next batch is in ILL and I don't think it holds to here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9:45 pm and I just saw the first flakes falling. Currently 22F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) Upton said the warm front would stay south of LI. Looks like they were pretty good with that. Temps in my area borderline for a freezing event. 84 seems to be the line. There’s a abandoned property down the road that’s hosting tree and utility workers and their trucks. Hoping they are needed elsewhere. Edited February 23, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 First flakes at 10:15 PM, light accumulating snow, 28˚ F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 Snoozed off watching a movie…woke up to 22F and just over 3” on the ground 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 23, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2023 Temps really nosedived I've the snow started. Down to 14.5°, eyeballing 4-5" so far. Should be pretty fluffy, definitely dry. Gotta clear the driveway for the Mrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 23, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2023 Closing in on 6" now. Very fluffy, 15:1 easy. Windy enough to make it feel like a blizzard snowblowing with the snow flying around. PXL_20230223_115426156.TS.mp4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 23 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Closing in on 6" now. Very fluffy, 15:1 easy. Windy enough to make it feel like a blizzard snowblowing with the snow flying aroun What's that white all over the ground??? For you Gilligan Island fans (dream dialog)... Gilligan say they have thing called snow. What is snow? Is white, lumpy rain. We don't need rain. We need husbands. Men on this side of hill run too fast. Easy for man to slip on snow. What? Easy to catch man running in snow. Man run, slip on snow, Girls catch husband. Ooh, other side of hill sound very good to Mary Ann. Sound good to Ginger. We like snow. Edited February 23, 2023 by Hiramite 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'm about to venture out to take my son to work and it looks like we have 5" to 6". Snow had stopped a little bit ago but now starting back up with larger flakes. Currently 17F with no wind. Today's forecast calls for a few more inches but has taken out the mention of freeing rain. It does mention sleet for tonight. Expected high is 22F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 BTV's discussion for this morning. Dryer air did cut down on totals. Maybe part 2 of this storm will surprise to the upside. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 710 AM EST Thursday...Precipitation has dwindled to patchy light snow at this hour, with the drying aloft taking its toll on our snowfall. We are still seeing rather breezy north/northeast winds in portions of northern New York and northeastern Vermont where low level cold dry air continues to overpower the cloud layer above it, so expect some blowing snow especially in the St. Lawrence Valley to continue this morning. Also have received reports of freezing drizzle already so expect patchy freezing drizzle will become more widespread across the region, especially in areas with higher relative humidity. Cut back on storm total snowfall based on observations of generally 2 to 6 inches this morning, but additional light snow later today and tonight will help boost us closer to early predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5" down, snowing lightly. 17˚ F. Not much of a storm in my neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2” so far in the first round. Going to underperform this round. 20 miles NW of Bangor. Powdery at 8.4°F. Just enough fluff to hide the ice underfoot…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just shy a hair shy of 4" here with a coating of sleet on top. Sounding like an underperformer across the board....as Rex mentioned, seems like qpf just wasn't as high as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 VT and vicinity snowfall map from BTV. It is through 7 am so it was still snow in many of these places at that time. I measured here and 5 1/2" seems to what we received. I took care of the driveway and I don't think we received any sleet. The snow was like sand in consistency and easy to get traction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 ☔🌧️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Sun has busted out, 50 degrees. The 0.75" slush,sleet is all but a memory. Going to be another nice afterwork spring walk this winter. 🙂 up to 51 since I started typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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