Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Wondering if some of these more intense looking returns are sleet and or very wet snowflakes aloft A bit of sleet in NE OH. And you northern folks looking good in the coming weeks! Good luck and enjoy. Edited February 22, 2023 by Hiramite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 BTV's forecast discussion from the late night/early morning crew. I bolded a section where they talk about a moisture stream from the Pacific Ocean. I find that BTV's overnight crew consistently have some really well written forecast discussions. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 639 AM EST Wednesday...Minor adjustments to temperature and sky cover were made according to the latest observations, but forecast overall looks okay through the quiet part of the near term. All eyes are on the deep storm system over the central US as it pushes northeastward today. On GOES-16 water vapor imagery, a deep moisture feed is evident from the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Baja California up into the frontal boundary across the Midwest US. Warm and humid air on the south side of the front is evident already with temperatures and dew points in the 60s; as this warmth slides northeastward with the low pressure area today, overrunning of the cold air in northern New York and New England will produce our winter storm tonight. Previous Discussion... Winter storm warnings are now in effect for heavy snow for most of the area beginning 7 PM today. A winter weather advisory is in effect for western Rutland and eastern Windsor County zones, where a mix or changeover to sleet looks to cut into snowfall amounts most substantially tonight. No big changes to the 00Z model guidance with the idea of several hours of heavy snow before precipitation tapers off to a light wintry mix. In addition to heavy snow, we expect locally blowing and drifting of snow in the St. Lawrence Valley. Channeled northeasterly winds will become rather gusty while heavy snow falls in this region, resulting in near zero visibility at times overnight and possibly into the morning. Elsewhere, such as in the Champlain Valley, enough of a southeasterly low level flow will keep northerly surface winds light. Snow ratios still look near or a bit above average in the 12-14:1 range with a mix of favorable and unfavorable ingredients while the heavy precipitation occurs. Strong lift in a deep moist layer is offset by warmer than ideal temperatures aside from the upper cloud layer, and to see more dendrites and fluffier snow we`d ideally have the snow growth zone nearer to the surface. The peak of the event is roughly in the 11 PM to 5 AM period, when HREF probabilities of greater than an inch accumulation per hour is in excess of 70% for a six hour period. The heavy precipitation is associated with intense frontal lift, initially in the 700 mb - 500 mb layer and then working downward towards 850 mb. Then best forcing pushes to the east along with the deep moisture that supported the heavy precipitation, consistent with loss of saturation above 700 mb during the morning. However, low level cold air advection on the backside of the surface low translating to our south and east will cool the low levels enough to see additional light snow through the morning. As such, winter storm products will be in effect through 1 PM as some areas of additional snow accumulation through the morning is likely. In southern areas, especially Rutland and Windsor counties but possibly farther north, precipitation will likely be a wintry mix by morning; the warm nose aloft appears to be high enough to support mainly sleet as there will be enough of a refreeze layer below to avoid icing through this time frame. Unfortunately, after that time we are not done with wintry weather. Ahead of another low pressure system, additional precipitation will likely move across the region during the late afternoon into the evening. Given the storm track of this next system into the western portions of our region drawing warm air northward, precipitation will towards light freezing rain as surface temperatures remain cold. For now, have ice accumulations/freezing rain limited to the most likely areas, essentially all of the southern sections of northern New York and Vermont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 BTV's forecast map last updated around 6 am. The southern 20% of VT is covered by the NWS out of Albany. They seems to be going with warmer less snowy scenario. This is only through 1 pm on Thursday. Some areas will be seeing more snow later on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looks like sleet has made it into the State College area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 rain thats all i got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Need to fire up the generator today although feeling pretty good about it as it was just serviced. 12z NAM did push south some, still has me flipping to sleet, but keeping the bulk as snow and no fzr. Comparing 12z NAM at 15z to current timestamp on radar (15z in a few minutes), it's looking pretty good. Maybe Ahab needs a first mate.... Currently 29F under a mixed sun and clouds day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Light snow has broken through in Williamsport. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Tom Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Although the radar looks good, just a few tiny flakes falling here at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 41 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Need to fire up the generator today although feeling pretty good about it as it was just serviced. 12z NAM did push south some, still has me flipping to sleet, but keeping the bulk as snow and no fzr. Comparing 12z NAM at 15z to current timestamp on radar (15z in a few minutes), it's looking pretty good. Maybe Ahab needs a first mate.... Currently 29F under a mixed sun and clouds day. With the NAM moving southward, all the 12Z models have your area with 6"+. If I remember correctly, this is close to where the GFS had it a few days ago and then the NAM went north when it came into range. Hopefully you are north of the heavy freezing rain. The 12Z GFS is taking the middle of the winter precipitation right over the Middlebury area. The difference in totals from Central VT to Northern VT is the higher ratio snow to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Main event underway in Central PA. Light snow here in Williamsport with grass and elevated surfaces taking on some slushy coating. Roads wet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This is not going to be a fun storm for the Buffalo area and southern Michigan and Ontario. Catskills and Poconos also looking to be dealing with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: Main event underway in Central PA. Light snow here in Williamsport with grass and elevated surfaces taking on some slushy coating. Roads wet. What is your forecast for today? Will you be seeing some of that warmth that is surging north or did that happen already and it departed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, TheRex said: What is your forecast for today? Will you be seeing some of that warmth that is surging north or did that happen already and it departed? This is gonna blow through by mid afternoon.. some slushy snow, then mix, maybe a touch of icing and plain rain. Zzz in a normal winter. Finally something when considering this winter. Spring tomorrow. Winter Friday and Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) Got an alert… 7-12…phone alerted me about NH goods 🤣. Drizzle in Malvern 41 Sleet in Sinking Spring, update from the better half. Edited February 22, 2023 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: This is gonna blow through by mid afternoon.. some slushy snow, then mix, maybe a touch of icing and plain rain. Zzz in a normal winter. Finally something when considering this winter. Spring tomorrow. Winter Friday and Saturday. The temp differential for the people that post on the northeast board is crazy tomorrow. Some will be dressed like it is June and some dressed like it is January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 NAM3k trend for my departure from work at 5pm. Might be leaving earlier now. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Coming down steadily. Starting to stick to our side road. Looks like changeover is near. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Mostly snow, but some small ice pellets starting to mix in... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Off Topic...but what the hell does the GFS think it's doing bringing a storm to the coastal mid-Atlantic. Guess it didn't get the memo this are forbidden these days... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Off Topic...but what the hell does the GFS think it's doing bringing a storm to the coastal mid-Atlantic. Guess it didn't get the memo this are forbidden these days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Mostly sleet with a few larger flakes mixed in. ¾" snow accumulation. ¾" more than I expected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: Off Topic...but what the hell does the GFS think it's doing bringing a storm to the coastal mid-Atlantic. Guess it didn't get the memo this are forbidden these days... You could start that topic, we could wager on a cutter/OTS solution. ☃️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, TLChip said: You could start that topic, we could wager on a cutter/OTS solution. ☃️ Still need to get through two short wave systems traversing the region after this current one, seemingly a northern one around the 26th and a southern stream one around the 28th...but GEFS seems to have a nice full latitude trough signature dropping through the center of the CONUS heading into that timeframe. I'm sure the Pacific will screw it up somehow... Steady virga here for a little while. Temps holding at 30F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: Off Topic...but what the hell does the GFS think it's doing bringing a storm to the coastal mid-Atlantic. Guess it didn't get the memo this are forbidden these days... The GFS is making sure those big cities don't remove the plows from their trucks too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Mostly sleet with a few larger flakes mixed in. ¾" snow accumulation. ¾" more than I expected. Did any of the models show you getting a 1/2" or more? Just trying to figure out which model may have a better handle on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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