HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 NaM for tonight and tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: NaM for tonight and tomorrow Interesting, I think i've been NAM'd, run looks good for SNE NWS not that impressed with this little system, maybe some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 21, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 21, 2023 Looking active. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHSparky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gray keeps mentioning freezing rain. Just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 21, 2023 This sucks....looks like I'll have Thursday night off from bartending.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) Surprised to see NWS giving that much accumulations in these parts.... Just looking at higher rez models...going to go with my gut and say 1-3" here. Edited February 21, 2023 by telejunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: Surprised to see NWS giving that much accumulations in these parts.... Just looking at higher rez models...going to go with my gut and say 1-3" here. BTV talks about this in their forecast discussion from this morning. I went from being on the northern part of the heavy stuff to the southern part of the heavier stuff on the NAM. I hope the NAM is wrong but this year the storms have tended to give the heaviest snows to southern Ontario and southern Quebec. I hope it is colder and no one has to deal with freezing rain. We had some freezing rain last Thursday and the dirt roads around here were a solid sheet of ice that I didn't trust driving on with my non-studded snow tires. Quote SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 426 AM EST Tuesday...A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of northern New York and Vermont during this period associated with a round of widespread heavy snow, generally in the range of 7-11" through Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will be heaviest overnight, when hourly snowfall in the 1-2" range is possible given strong frontal lift within a saturated dendritic snow growth zone. Snow ratios will be variable, generally higher in heavy snow bands, but should tend to be on the climatological average side (near 13:1). Generally the high humidity environment will favor dendrites with temperatures aloft marginally cold, but will need to consider the potential impact of strong winds aloft that could break snowflakes and lead to less fluff-factor. Global models continue to have strong agreement on an axis of heavy snow somewhere in our forecast area associated with an impressive warm frontal wave; temperatures and moisture on either side of the front will be a clash of winter and spring environments. The consensus low pressure track is to our south with a warm front extending east-northeastward Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. However, refinement in the coming days will be needed as we get better consensus on exactly where the sweet spot will be for snowfall. The sloping nature of frontal boundaries means there will be warming aloft north of the surface front and this will be rather strong such that wet bulb temperatures through the whole air column will only be below freezing in a narrow area where heavy snow occurs, while mixed precipitation occurs to the south. The latest higher resolution models have been showing the all-snow zone farther north than our current forecast, and if model consensus moves in this direction, snowfall amounts would trend downward, especially in central/southern portions of the region. Overall, model guidance has remained in somewhat different camps when it comes to their ensembles, making for a tough deterministic forecast. Most ECMWF guidance is farther south with the storm track than the multi-model consensus, which would favor a heavy snow axis across our central/southern areas. In contrast, the GFS is farther north with a near ideal setup for mainly snow areawide but with heavy precipitation across our entire region, and the Canadian generally is in between the GFS/ECMWF. Therefore, for precipitation type/thermal profile we used the 00Z deterministic Canadian at this point, which introduces a mix of sleet and glaze of ice to south central Vermont towards Thursday morning. Following the quick departure of the surface low to our south and east Thursday morning, precipitation should taper off from west to east with some lingering light snow possible depending on the configuration of the next shortwave approaching from the west. If it tracks far enough south, there will be enough moisture and lift to keep light precipitation going for parts of region, especially the higher terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Both the NAM and GFS give me approximately the same amount of snow but look very different. GFS likes the central NY and NE: While the NAM likes northern NY and NE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 BTV issued a Winter Storm Watch starting Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 257 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-212200- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0003.230223T0000Z-230223T2100Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland- Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Massena, Norfolk, Fort Covington, Malone, Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield, and White River Junction 257 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snowfall. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more, with ice accumulations of a light glaze possible in Rutland and Windsor Counties. * WHERE...All of northern New York, and central and northern Vermont. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially on the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of moderate to heavy snow will occur primarily Wednesday night before tapering off on Thursday. Snowfall rates of greater than an inch per hour will lower visibilities to a half mile at times during the heaviest snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) Euro also keeping it colder aloft....globals vs. short-rangers. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top....Ukie and Euro both say I-90 is the dividing line for bigger accumulations while NAM say it's US Rt 2. Not like we haven't seen these discrepancies before within a day of go-time. (note that the Euro is only out to hr66 here and storm is still going) Those cut-off lines in Michigan are pretty intense.... Edited February 21, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Not being "in the game" has its benefits.. no fretting over that fine line of good snow, or an icy-rain screwover. I like that the cold trend continues though, might get a little more winter precip than expected tomorrow down this way. Had a pretty cool pea-sized hail thunderstorm with close bolts. 45 degrees! Better than 99% of our summer storms. Sad. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 21, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 21, 2023 Tornado warning for CNJ right now and Severe Thunderstorm Warning for CNY right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18Z NAM jogged a little north with the heavy snow compared to the 12Z. The newest run was quite as kind to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The latest forecast discussion from BTV. They do discuss the dreaded warm nose. Sleet and freezing rain is mentioned in my local forecast for Thursday night. Quote .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EST Tuesday... * A Winter Storm Watch Remains in effect for all of northern New York and Vermont from 7 PM Wednesday through 3 PM Thursday. An elongated warm front and waves of surface low pressure will push warmth and anomalous moisture toward the forecast area from the south/west as high pressure in Quebec brings colder Canadian air from the north/east. This clash of contrasting conditions will put our forecast area in a favorable conditions for some moderate to heavy precipitation during the short term period. This event will likely arrive in two waves, with the first getting underway Wednesday evening/night, starting as snow. Northern zones of the forecast area are most likely to remain snow for most of the first wave with colder air being funneled in from the north, but the potential for wintry mix increases when one examines the southern and southwestern zones. Surface low temperatures will be in the teens for northern areas to the mid-20s in south-central Vermont on Wednesday night thanks to the Canadian cold, but model soundings indicate a shallow warm nose in the 750-700mb layer, allowing for some sleet late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as warmer air surges northward and slides above denser cold air. The warm nose could be thickest in Rutland and Windsor counties from 800-700mb, allowing for quick periods of freezing rain. All of this precipitation type analysis remains highly variable and dependent on model of choice/trust. High res models have been holding steady with a sharp gradient between higher amounts 7-8 inches of snow for the northern half of the area and 1-3 inches for the southern half, where mixing makes snow accums lower. Meanwhile, global models continue to indicate heavier snow for our southern tier with 7-9 inches and lighter snow accums along the international border 4-5 inches. The biggest question remains of how quickly snow would turn to wintry mix, and that will likely affect snow totals, which are driving our winter storm watch. Ratios are expected to be around the lower teens to start and then decreasing in southern areas throughout the day Thursday, though this could vary depending on snow bands. With elevated ratios and such a powerful clash of spring vs. winter environments, along with a saturated snow growth region, snow rates will be heaviest Wednesday night into Thursday morning when rates could exceed 1 inch per hour and create visibilities below a half a mile at times. Snowfall totals are in the 7-11 inch range with potentially 11-15 inches on mountaintops. One change from the previous shift was to decrease snow totals in Rutland and Windsor counties with the introduction of mixing. Overall, tried to find a balance between the starkly different CAMs and global deterministic. A brief lull is expected midday Thursday as we enter a break between waves. Highs will rise slightly to the upper teens northwest to upper 20s to even lower 30s south, and snow rates/amounts will be tapering off by the end of the day. While the first wave will likely keep its low level jet to our south, the second one is anticipated to increase winds Thursday afternoon-night with 850mb winds 45-55 knots nosing into the area. The second wave and associated precipitation is expected to be concentrated to our north/along the international border, where we have highest PoPs. Snow amounts for Thursday night are forecast to be around a dusting to a half inch for most, with far northern Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom expecting 1-3 inches of snow. Wintry mix continues to be a troubling factor, primarily early Thursday night before winds turn more northwesterly and the inversion falls apart. Again, these variables are highly dependent on any shift in storm track with this second wave. Cold frontal passage will drop lows even farther Thursday night, with temperatures in the single digits across northern New York to teens in Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looking more like a short period of snow straight to sleet for a few hours to ice down near i84 ares in NY. Upstate should get good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 HRW FV3 has the heaviest snow falling between @telejunkie and myself. This would be a nice hit for every ski resort in VT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Temps tanking in the neighborhood. 10 degrees in 2 hours, 5 in the past hour. Looks like I'm in a cooler area of town. Not too unusual really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 Think most of us who have played these games before know that southern trends in the last 24 hours are practically white whales of the weather weenie world when you're on the southern end of good accums. So will play the realistic card....but that said, have upped my expectations from 1-3" to 2-4". Short-range models have for the most part held their ground and what happens in Michigan will be the signal for me. If Saginaw sees a lot of mix, I'm screwed. But currently thinking I should see a few hour hit of moderate to heavy snow before the changeover though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2023 (edited) Good graphic from Burlington...I'm just above the second "e" in the "Wintry mix expected" in that graphic Edited February 22, 2023 by telejunkie 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 If I can avoid any sleet mixing in, ratios might not be terrible. GYX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 Wondering if some of these more intense looking returns are sleet and or very wet snowflakes aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 BTV issued upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 302 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>010-016>020-222215- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0003.230223T0000Z-230223T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.230223T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ Eastern Clinton-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin- Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Western Windsor- Including the cities of Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, and Ludlow 302 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern New York and most of Vermont. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will occur tonight, before tapering off to a light wintry mix on Thursday. Expect visibilities under a half mile at times during the heaviest snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 My local forecast with the calm before the storm today then heavy snow tonight. They did remove the mention of possible freezing rain for Thursday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 hours ago, telejunkie said: Think most of us who have played these games before know that southern trends in the last 24 hours are practically white whales of the weather weenie world when you're on the southern end of good accums. So will play the realistic card....but that said, have upped my expectations from 1-3" to 2-4". Short-range models have for the most part held their ground and what happens in Michigan will be the signal for me. If Saginaw sees a lot of mix, I'm screwed. But currently thinking I should see a few hour hit of moderate to heavy snow before the changeover though. Call me Ahab! 🤪 I've lucked out on a couple/few last minute cold trends, but models struggle so hard work the way the cold can get lodged in from the NE here. Coastal front, little meso lows in the gulf of Maine. I really love my microclimate. SREFs have largely dumped the sleet chances. Double digits are not out of the question. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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