February 22-24, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

Too much separation between waves would mean some warmth might get dragged up, especially if the second wave amps up too much 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Little change on the models for Tuesday now some light snow prior to the possible icy snow events Thursday

Tues am

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Little change on the models for Tuesday now some light snow prior to the possible icy snow events Thursday

Tues am

Seems like the southern jet is stuck in the SW.  so not much phasing going on, so maybe there's a little more "room" now for the northern branch to dig.

NAM trend

For the subsequent system(s), guessing we won't see any major swings, just constant tweaking of temp profiles. No phasing makes it a bit more "straightforward".  Could still trend a decent ways 4-5 days out, either way, I'd wager that it's more back and forth, at least for a few more runs.

  Hudson trof vs. SE ridge isn't ideal, and as you and others have noted, these can result in icy or sleety set ups.  

 So, better baroclinic zone, even looks like there's a 50/50 type storm, however, the shortwaves (as currently modeled) want to slide more W-E into that 50/50, rather than digging into the eastern CONUS, and slowing down a hair.

  Never gonna get all the ingredients perfect. That subtropical ridge, that's effectively a SER, that becomes centered near the Louisiana Delta, has been stout.

[so_whats_happening]

So there is a real possibility we go from mid 40s to mid 70s within 12 hours from wednesday evening/early thursday into thursday afternoon. Lack of precip over the area at the time and downsloping winds. Might break some daily records if that happens. Then we crash temps into friday and if there is not too much confluence across the area saturday could feature a little thump action across the mid atlantic. After that is a crap shoot to know what may happen next.

[MaineJay]

EPS EFI favoring northern VT/NY for snow.

Meanwhile, as @so_whats_happeningsaid, chance at records in VA into the DelMarVa.

 

[MaineJay]

The "appetizer" on Tuesday. Amped ARW vs the tamer NMB.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

EPS EFI favoring northern VT/NY for snow.

Meanwhile, as @so_whats_happeningsaid, chance at records in VA into the DelMarVa.

 

Yea it is a rather tough call around my area. Could either be sitting in dense fog and upper 40's or push strongly into the low/mid 70's. BWI certainly looks to push the warmer temps but the typical PA/MD barrier may set up. I want to wait and see how 12z runs go. NAM is starting to get the full event under the 84 hour umbrella it has and the differences that far out are noticeable. Of course LR NAM is a beast of its own.

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

So there is a real possibility we go from mid 40s to mid 70s within 12 hours from wednesday evening/early thursday into thursday afternoon. Lack of precip over the area at the time and downsloping winds. Might break some daily records if that happens. Then we crash temps into friday and if there is not too much confluence across the area saturday could feature a little thump action across the mid atlantic. After that is a crap shoot to know what may happen next.

Friday morning in Roanoke, Va it was 61 and muggy when I left my house about 7am.  I drove to Covington Va, and on my return trip home I drove through Paint Bank Va, where at 2pm it was 34 and snowing.  Of course, there was some elevation changes, and maybe not the most dramatic change in temp ever but still quite impressive to witness.

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Friday morning in Roanoke, Va it was 61 and muggy when I left my house about 7am.  I drove to Covington Va, and on my return trip home I drove through Paint Bank Va, where at 2pm it was 34 and snowing.  Of course, there was some elevation changes, and maybe not the most dramatic change in temp ever but still quite impressive to witness.

That area is always fascinating weather wise. Yea that cold front was nice across my area went from 60's to 40s rather quick and gusts around 45-50mph. Even had some sleet on the back end with some convective looking showers after having a thunderstorm the evening before.

[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion from early Sunday morning.  They seem bullish on this event but it still is early so things could change.  They also mention sleet is a possibility.

Quote

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 252 AM EST Sunday...Wednesday will be the quiet before an
expansive area of low pressure sends an extensive warm front north.
A 1034mb high over James Bay will maintain cool northerly flow over
the region, with temperatures struggling to reach 30, except in
southern Vermont.

The expansive warm front arrives overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning. The forecast east-west extent of the front is impressive,
spanning Iowa all the way off of Cape Cod. Behind the warm front is
an anomalous upper high near the Florida peninsula and a smaller
shortwave progressing northeast (present upper low off California),
that will result in some impressive isentropic ascent of very warm,
moist air over cool and dense northerly flow continuing as the then
1039 mb high shifts from James Bay into Quebec Province. Moderate
snow, with an embedded region of heavy snow, will lift north across
Vermont and northern New York Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
The exact placement of any mesoscale banding is still being worked
out (we are not in the range of mesoscale models after all), but
percentages for exceeding snowfall thresholds has markedly increased
this cycle with regards to snow forecasts. The probability of 4" has
increased towards 70 to 90 percent, and 8" has increased towards 20
to 40 percent over the region. If these trends continue, some winter
weather headlines could be in the cards.

With regards to mixed precipitation, there are still some model
differences. The most notable difference is the GFS maintaining a
closed mid-level low shifting northeast, while the CMC and ECMWF
open up that mid-level low from across the Northern Plains and have
it flatten as it shifts towards our area through the zooming
westerlies. Given the speed and extent of west winds greater than
170 knots at 250hPa, am more inclined towards the upper low opening
up like the CMC/ECWMF depict. This is still a day 5 forecast,
though, and there`s plenty of opportunity for change, but will
continue with the previous forecast and keep the mixed p-types south
of the international border. Also interesting is how high the
warmest air is, with the layer of air near or above freezing
somewhere near 700 hPa. The DGZ is also way up there, around 16000
ft agl, due to anomalous warmth at 500 hPa. It looks like sleet
would be the most likely p-type as a result. However, deep moisture
moves north of the international border later on Thursday, and the
DGZ could become unsaturated as a result, and it`s possible there
could be some freezing drizzle within the system`s dry slot. As the
mid-level trough shifts into the region Thursday night into Friday,
we should see snow resume, and then taper off early Friday morning.

 

[MaineJay]

GFS trend.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

GFS trend.

As it stands now we've actually trended cold enough for a mainly frozen event down this way. Pretty nice 10 day stretch on cmc and gfs with snow and ice threats every other day..

[tool483]

I smell a major sleetfest around here, hey i'll take some winter in this spring like winter 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A return to more winter like weather is expected through the long
term period. A system will be exiting the area Tuesday night
followed by the potential for a significant winter storm
Wednesday night into Friday morning. The pattern remains active
over the weekend into early next week with a consistent signal
for a negative NAO into early March.

A fast moving short wave and associated surface low will be crossing
the forecast area Tuesday night. While the bulk of the systems QPF
will have been deposited Tuesday afternoon, additional snowfall
is likely through the first part of Tuesday night. Additional
accumulations will be light with eastern zones standing the best
chance to pick up another 1 to 2 inches. Precipitation will
taper off during the pre dawn hours Wednesday morning with high
pressure building in Wednesday. This high pressure will remain
anchored to our north as well as a reservoir of cold air setting
the stage for the storm Wednesday night into Friday morning as
warm air pushes northward along the East Coast and waves of low
pressure track west to east across New England.

Global models and their ensembles continue to show good run to run
continuity in a prolonged winter storm late Wednesday night lasting
into Friday morning. This system exhibits similar traits to the
winter storm that impacted the forecast area last winter on February
4th, 2022 when a sharp baroclinic zone set up over New England that
produced significant snowfall along and north of the foothills while
the southern third of the area received mostly sleet. The key
feature with this upcoming storm will again be a sharp baroclinic
zone over the Northeast with temperatures as high as the low 70s
pushing into southern Pennsylvania Thursday while temperatures near
the Canadian Border will only approach 10 degrees.

Models are honing in on two waves traversing the area with the first
and more robust wave sliding across southern New England late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This wave will be associated
with a west to east band of strong Fgen forcing that coincides
with a near saturated DGZ. BUFKIT profiles show decent omega
within DGZ layer along with good moisture lasting for several
hours late Wednesday night into Thursday morning suggesting that
several inches of snow will be possible across much of the area
leading into the Thursday morning commute. Most model solutions
continue to show that the snow/mix line will be over or just
south of the major population centers of southern NH and SW
Maine later Thursday morning with this factor likely one to
watch over the coming days as it will impact snow totals like
the 2/4/2022 event. Later Thursday morning BUFKIT profiles show
the DGZ drying out south to north that will also limit snowfall
rates and possibly lead to greater mixing potential as
precipitation rates drop off into Thursday afternoon as the
first wave pushes east of the area.

The second wave will be quick to arrive Thursday evening and night.
This wave will have the greatest lift and QPF focused further
north over the mountains and overall looks to have less QPF to
work with. The snow/mix line again looks to be near the southern
third of the area. It is important to note that thermal
profiles for both waves favors more of a snow/sleet scenario
rather than freezing rain although some freezing rain cannot be
ruled out. This wave will move into the Gulf of Maine Friday
morning and will deepen leading to strengthening northerly to
northwesterly flow over the area Friday. Overall QPF amounts
remain steady in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range with the higher end
amounts focused across the south and lower end amounts focused
across the north. Despite good run to run and model to model
agreement, at this time range tracks shifts are still possible
and even subtle shifts will have a large impact precipitation
types and amounts as this system will have a narrow west to east
axis of maximum QPF.

High pressure builds in Friday night into Saturday morning bringing
mostly dry conditions and colder air. Global models indicate a
return to active weather late Saturday into early next with multiple
troughs taking aim at the Northeast. There looks to be enough cold
air around to support additional chances for mostly snow, although
the timing and strength of these systems is unclear.

 

[MaineJay]

9 hours ago, tool483 said:

I smell a major sleetfest around here, hey i'll take some winter in this spring like winter 

GYX mentioned similarity to a storm last year that was very sleety around here.  Sharp temp gradient, multiple waves, DGZ not always saturated.  Hopefully we can tap some of that cold that's not far away for you!

[HVSNOWSTORM]

UK for tomorrow AM looks like it gets the little low in the early morning/ overnight tonight going then the 2nd little wave comes through in the afternoon warmer. So this snow is all from and if the morning wave develops better.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

UK for Thursday event...

[MaineJay]

On 2/19/2023 at 7:45 AM, MaineJay said:

EPS EFI favoring northern VT/NY for snow.

Meanwhile, as @so_whats_happeningsaid, chance at records in VA into the DelMarVa.

 

EPS with a bit of southward soft

[TheRex]

11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

EPS with a bit of southward soft

BTV removed sleet from my forecast and dropped the temps. Hopefully this means it gets some of the southern New England folks into the game. 

[MaineJay]

36 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

UK for tomorrow AM looks like it gets the little low in the early morning/ overnight tonight going then the 2nd little wave comes through in the afternoon warmer. So this snow is all from and if the morning wave develops better.

NAM 3 had a bit of convective looking snow sliding through. Might catch some off guard for that morning commute.

[MaineJay]

Spring vs. Winter

[MaineJay]

Man, subtle differences really have consequences. Still trying to figure out temp profiles and moisture along that undulating boundary.

 

[MaineJay]

It appears that the stronger the Tuesday system, the colder this system on the models, at least the initial wave Wed-Thur.  Closer the  wave spacing with the last wave, the colder it should be.

[TheRex]

My forecast is looking pretty good for this week.  Nice to see them already forecasting a 100% chance of snow for Thursday.

Those with flexible schedules and like to ski, next weekend should be a great time to go north to do some skiing.

[buxtonian]

Finally, winter is arriving.