Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS cranked it up another notch in MN, unbelievable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) Nasty pinger setting up for Michigan. Short ranges are a bit warmer than globals ... messy forecast for mets up there. We shall enjoy the toasty temps down here.. Edited February 20, 2023 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS cranked it up another notch in MN, unbelievable PLEEEAASSEEE LEt this verify! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted February 20, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS cranked it up another notch in MN, unbelievable The Old Happy Hour GFS never disappoints but fracturing should limit ratios for the second half of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) DTX playing the conservative game as usual lol GRR is saying 6-10” directly west of where DTX is calling 4-6” 🤷🏼♂️ Edited February 21, 2023 by MidMichiganWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said: DTX playing the conservative game as usual lol GRR is saying 6-10” directly west of where DTX is calling 4-6” 🤷🏼♂️ Wow. Why even issue a storm watch for that? I understand there’s potential for freezing rain but their other graphic says .01-.1 inch of icing. Seems like their forecast is less than their warning criteria.although I’m not sure what ice accretion criteria is for a warning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Pros3lyte said: Wow. Why even issue a storm watch for that? I understand there’s potential for freezing rain but their other graphic says .01-.1 inch of icing. Seems like their forecast is less than their warning criteria.although I’m not sure what ice accretion criteria is for a warning.. Gotta consider also that they're expecting some pretty windy conditions for an ice event... 15-25 mph gusting into the 30s. Doesn't take much for those winds to bully around some powerlines/trees/etc Here's their AFD Today`s model cycle continues temporal consistency with the bulk features of the southern Plains system as it migrates into the mid MS valley during Wednesday. Opted to go ahead with a Winter Storm Watch with this forecast issuance given the potential magnitude of the icing event. The lead time is a bit longer than usual, especially for a mixed precip event, and carries risk of substantial forecast changes but is offset by the potential for a high end icing event somewhere in southern Lower MI. The Watch starts a framework within which we can then shuffle around precipitation type and amounts in upcoming forecasts. Today`s forecast cycle still depicts surface temperature trends toward the Ohio border counties as the greatest source of uncertainty on the southward extent of freezing rain potential. Lenawee and Monroe counties are not in the Watch but are expected to be in a Winter Weather Advisory time window later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locations farther north, especially toward the northern Detroit suburbs to I-69, have a chance to be more firmly in subfreezing air overlapped by high precipitation rate. The range of model soundings broadly suggest an all snow start is possible in this area followed by a lengthy period of sleet before changing to freezing rain. The key will be persistence of precipitation coverage and intensity which tend to verify in a more scattered pattern when a convective component develops. The Tri Cities and northern Thumb then stand the best chance to hold all snow but with intervals of sleet and freezing rain also possible. Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is play for all areas in the Watch but with substantial north to south adjustments possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and northward progress of the warm nose are refined in later updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 21, 2023 Quite a bit going on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 NAM is still lighter on the snow in southern/central lower MI, and further north. 00z GFS coming in the same as it has been for probably 8+ runs and paints a solid 10+ across my neck of the woods. Curious to see how the short term models start handling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The NAM was a nice hit for MBY with 3 distinct waves of snow during the 84 hour run totaling 1-2 ft depending on ratios. 24+ hours of northeasterly lake effect could give those numbers a bump too. There was ~2 inches last night, the first wave on the model run is tonight with a passing clipper that's already dropped about ~1 inch and then this system could start as early as tomorrow evening. After a month of warm and dry weather, I'm hopeful mother nature finally flipped the switch on winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) The Minneapolis office is sticking out like a sore thumb this morning, wondering if @MidwestWX has anything to do with this 😄 Edited February 21, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Tired of being right on the edge of these monsters. Every. Single. Time. Feeling like this is going to be another 2-4” dud IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12z RGEM has a line of 12” right over my house lol. NAM still not playing ball but seems like it’s the outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, MidMichiganWx said: Tired of being right on the edge of these monsters. Every. Single. Time. Feeling like this is going to be another 2-4” dud IMBY. I’m getting plain cold rain from this so I guess it could be worse for you up there. Hope you end up being surprised. Going to be interesting to see how far north the warm nose pushes. Going to have a good 30 degree temp difference within 10-20 miles around here. Fun stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Partly sunny with a high of 72. I'd be lying if I said I will hate that. Another day for open windows. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 30 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: I’m getting plain cold rain from this so I guess it could be worse for you up there. Hope you end up being surprised. Going to be interesting to see how far north the warm nose pushes. Going to have a good 30 degree temp difference within 10-20 miles around here. Fun stuff! I honestly suspect it will be very similar to last weeks storm here where totals get lowered a lot due to mixing, which realistically I can't be too mad about because I'd rather have a bunch of sleet than ice. Obviously would rather it be all snow. GFS is holding steady on the warm nose staying south. NAM is further north with it. Everything else is kind of in-between. I honestly hate these late winter/early spring type storms. Such a pain to nail down, can't imagine being a met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: I’m getting plain cold rain from this so I guess it could be worse for you up there. Hope you end up being surprised. Going to be interesting to see how far north the warm nose pushes. Going to have a good 30 degree temp difference within 10-20 miles around here. Fun stuff! Man I am jealous of those 70 degree temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, easton229 said: Man I am jealous of those 70 degree temps I am looking forward to it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, RobB said: I am looking forward to it... Ran up to the store a bit ago - cold and crappy out. The older I get the more I dislike the winter time. Thank God for youtube on my living room TV so I can watch 4k drone footage of tropical beaches with ambient relaxing music lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said: Ran up to the store a bit ago - cold and crappy out. The older I get the more I dislike the winter time. Thank God for youtube on my living room TV so I can watch 4k drone footage of tropical beaches with ambient relaxing music lol 😆 I like it! I still love the cold and snow but if it is not, then I am fine with more warmth. Hell, I have yet to drive the new car I purchased last fall through the snow as the few days of snow covered roads, work was called off two of those. So minimal salt on the car 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 WSW and Ice Storm Warnings issues in western/southern LP MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted February 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) 12 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The Minneapolis office is sticking out like a sore thumb this morning, wondering if @MidwestWX has anything to do with this 😄 Sometimes you tell your neighbors "you either get on board or get off the TRACKS!" Edit: if you didn't realize it....but I'm joking! We have an excellent group of forecasters at the WFO and we're fortunate enough to have a few of our best Winter WX folks work this event. While we may disagree sometimes during the initial collaboration process, our concern is to provide the best quality forecast to our partners and consumers. We're under a bullseye for this system so going to a WW.Y would have sent conflicting messaging. It was also a very high end advisory and/or low end warning with what we had in the grids. This first wave was going to likely trend higher due to FGEN banding so we opted to make things simple for ourselves. We have a wonderful relationship with our media partners. One piece of feedback was to avoid downplaying precursor events. So we're going to be proactive with scenarios like this and lead by example. Looks like everyone else got on board eventually... Funny how that happens? 😜 Edited February 21, 2023 by MidwestWX Clarity 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) DTX goes Warnings for the northern portion of CWA and Ice Storm Warnings for a good chunk of the Metro on west. Northern Tier (my county northward) with the 3-8" forecast + .1-.2 tenths of an inch of ice. Southward counties in WSW saying 2-4" and .1-.3 tenths of an inch of ice. Ice storm counties looking at .2 tenths to a half inch of ice! 😬 Edited February 21, 2023 by Pros3lyte 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, RobB said: Partly sunny with a high of 72. I'd be lying if I said I will hate that. Another day for open windows. Bring it on. Can't wait to open the windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now