Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Storms are already popping in NW MS/SW TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Getting a nice look at a left-moving supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Squall getting going in E OK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Surprised spc didn’t issue moderate considering overnight model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Enjoying my morning heavy rain and thunder. I’m hoping to get something fun later on. I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Hoping this enhanced risk yields at least a warning around here. Im definitely ready for spring though 😂😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Snow____ said: Enjoying my morning heavy rain and thunder. I’m hoping to get something fun later on. I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Hoping this enhanced risk yields at least a warning around here. Im definitely ready for spring though 😂😂 The walk into work today was not enjoyable lol. I thought I would be okay with just my rain jacket...Definitely should have brought that umbrella! Socks and pants were soaked in about 3 minutes of walking. Definitely looking forward to some severe potential this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Rotten day to have the radar sites all down in SW Ohio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Bman10 said: Surprised spc didn’t issue moderate considering overnight model runs. Storm mode could be messy, they're likely waiting for the morning outcome before they can put it out There is already a weak couplet SSW of Jackson, MS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Michelle said: Rotten day to have the radar sites all down in SW Ohio. Agreed, looks like they were having some communications issues a few hours ago. Hopefully it's resolved before this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 All this morning convection may have killed our chances here in SW Ohio 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 large enhanced area maintains. & to no surprise the threat backed off for Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Relatively robust thunderstorm development has occurred well ahead of an approaching cold front in association with a confluence band along the LA/MS border area. Given ample diurnal heating, temperatures have warmed well into the 70s F, with upper 60s F dewpoint beginning to overspread central MS. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this relatively pristine warm sector, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should become common across the southeast, with patchy areas of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE possible. 50+ kts of westerly 500 mb flow currently overlaps a 30-40 kt low-level jet, with ample speed increases/veering with height supporting 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, which will support supercell development through the afternoon given the aforementioned thermodynamic profile. Modest low-level elongation and curvature of hodographs (evident in mesoanalysis and regional VADs) suggest that storms that organize in the near-term could become tornadic supercells. However, the low-level jet should gradually shift northward from the warm-sector today, which is expected to temper hodograph length/curvature, serving as the primary reason for withholding a moderate risk upgrade this outlook. Nonetheless, an appreciable risk for tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) necessitates the maintenance of Category 3/Enhanced probabilities, and a narrow corridor of locally higher tornado potential may briefly occur somewhere across eastern MS into central AL this afternoon. Thereafter, storms should gradually weaken as they cross into GA as buoyancy decreases and low-level winds continue to veer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Tennessee might luck out of this event but unfortunately it looks like this'll be another MS/AL event with warm sector supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tennessee might luck out of this event but unfortunately it looks like this'll be another MS/AL event with warm sector supercells James Spann is ready for this, you know what happens when a Tornado Warning is issued from BMX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Satellite does a great job of showing where the cold front is with relation to the warm sector storms. Never a good thing when you have warm sector storms this early and this deep in the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 (edited) A couple possible evolving supercells to watch. Notice how there may be some backed surface winds out ahead of them. Edited February 16, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Definitely a couple supercells starting to take form and they've got plenty of time and warm sector to organize further, doesn't look super impressive so far but it's only mid-day so we'll see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Definitely AL/MS is the area to watch. I think all the rain this morning really diminished chances of anything happening too significant up this way. Still thing there's a possibility for some small straight line winds as the line moves through but nothing crazy. SPC also backed down to a Marginal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Tornado warning in west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 So I guess we found where the sweet spot is right now. N MS/S TN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The hodograph whisperer himself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 New cell near… guess where… bassfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 Two confirmed tornadoes... one near Smithville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Probably a strong tornado on the ground near Smithville, big debris ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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