FortySixAnd32 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I'm becoming more weather aware of the possibility of Supercells in my area at the Triple Point because the models are trending this further west towards I-35 and I-44. The HRRR clearly shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) maybe the SPC is thinking of these cells for their 10% tornado outlook, with the HRRR showing STP(effective) at about 2.7-3.4 for the cells near Memphis. (the STP map shows values just over 1) Edited February 15, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, Chinook said: maybe the SPC is thinking of these cells for their 10% tornado outlook, with the HRRR showing STP(effective) at about 2.7-3.4 for the cells near Memphis. (the STP map shows values just over 1) Yep that's it. They have a good reason to do it, but low-level lapse rates are the factor that could make it bust. Especially given the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) New day 2 looks reasonable. Feels like it's been a while since we've seen such a widespread cool season event. Edited February 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Why 18z HRRR? Why over me!? What did I do to you!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Crazy Temperature difference in Oklahoma right now, Winter in NW, Spring here, and Summer to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 18z HRRR for this little bit in extreme NW MS at 06z. One of those times when HRRR is overtly depicting a supercell Question is this profile. 73 0-3km cape which is pretty decent, but 5.5 C/km 0-3km lapse rates is pretty pathetic. Definitely could limit the potential. I'd imagine there would be an impressive mid-level meso that would struggle to produce a tornado. Edited February 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) 18z HRRR reminds me of a similar progression to 3/2/12 for tomorrow except shifted south, but shear isn't extreme and mid-level lapse rates aren't as steep. So the magnitude of the event isn't nearly as high. But it's pretty rare to have possible supercells from KY to the Gulf coast in February Notice how Tennessee and Kentucky get a few hours of clearing in the afternoon before the frontal storms that could be semi-discrete. Edited February 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 Under another wind advisory after being in a high wind warning yesterday. Also, this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) Starting to get some kind of precip here. Wind has picked up. Thankfully I'm off until Friday so I get to watch the storms to my east First watch of (probably) many is up. I'll be curious to see how many of the next 36 hours will be without a convective watch. Edited February 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I'm at the very northern end of that watch in a general t-storm area, not expecting anything here as it should all be south and east of me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 15, 2023 Today’s wind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) Seems the storms along the dryline are having trouble getting going but it looks like the cap might've broken. Seeing some reflectivity all the way up to 35k feet. Edited February 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Seems the storms along the dryline are having trouble getting going but it looks like the cap might've broken. Seeing some reflectivity all the way up to 35k feet. I'm watching it closely, DP is low, but that is going to change very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Well now we have a new development here, looks like I'm gonna get something after all 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @ClicheVortex2014 @ElectricStorm There is a Couplet near Davis, OK, moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @ClicheVortex2014 @ElectricStorm There is a Couplet near Davis, OK, moving NE. Just a mid-level mesocyclone 00z HRRR... couldn't get the whole thing in one sector. Edited February 16, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Just a mid-level mesocyclone 00z HRRR... couldn't get the whole thing in one sector. I'm not sure of it, it's getting tighter and tighter with a pronounced hook on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 16, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I'm not sure of it, it's getting tighter and tighter with a pronounced hook on the radar. You can have hooks with mid-level mesos fwiw. This one is right on the warm front so it could be too elevated or it could become tornadic Edited February 16, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Looks like that cell is tagged as tornado possible now but it's about to merge with the line I would think. Still gotta watch it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Tornado Warning for Davis, this is part of a broken line, but that thing could be down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 0z 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Val Castor has no tornado, but the Mesocyclone is big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Tornado Warning for Ada, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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