Wtkidz Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Sterling says maybe a few flakes or it may stay south… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z Eps got interesting, esp for mid atl. Let’s see what 12z runs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Hot off the press 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 😅 At this rate, I'm about to congrats Orlando. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 Even if this came up the coast, there is no cold air to play with. This threat is unfortunately DOA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: Even if this came up the coast, there is no cold air to play with. This threat is unfortunately DOA. If that incoming shortwave somehow can catch it, low probability but non zero, it'll provide enough cold for ME, NH, VT if the moisture can get pulled west enough, and perhaps even parts of CT and RI with the right interaction. GFS trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 GYX Quote LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Since the polar vortex moved into the mid latitudes last weekend, any build up of cold air in the arctic has been slow, and flow has been dominate by the sub-tropical ridging over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This trend seems to continue this weekend into next week, with the CWA more on the warmer ridge side of the southern stream. Also, with the more dynamic SW flow aloft well to our W, It looks like any systems will be weak and low impact. However, the long range starts off on the colder side as CAA advection on gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. Saturday is the coldest day in the forecast, but even then highs will make to around normal, in the mid 20s to mid 30s N to S. Winds should die off gradually Saturday night, with some late rad cooling possible bring minds down to 5-10 above in the mtns, and 15-20 in the S. Late Sunday into early Monday, watching coastal low shift Operational models keep most of the precip to our S, and suggest a chance of light snow /or rain/ around Sunday night in the far srn zones, and ensemble means tend to follow this idea that system stays to our S, with only a graze of the S, but there are enough members /about 20%/, that would produce more significant snow across the southern CWA to not be completely confident about this yet. Beyond this, into the middle of next week, it looks warmer with the possible of a fast moving season around Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 Gonna take 3-4 days for that energy sliding down the lee of the Rockies to get to the SE coast. Meanwhile, the northern stream energy that's trying to catch it, just getting to the Aleutian islands. Can the hare catch the tortoise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Sterling says ….hard pressed to do much but rain… LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The aforementioned upper low will lift out of the MS River Valley and towards the Carolinas on Sunday. Surface low pressure will quickly strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard. This will most likely track to our south, as nearly all solutions paint that solution. The big question is, just how far south does it go? That question remains a bit unclear, though guidance is starting to at least come to some consensus. With most guidance lifting the upper low through the carolinas, becoming more negatively tilted, this favors some precipitation in our area. The biggest issue for winter lovers, outside of the mountains, is the fact that this storm has trended so much slower. The air mass in place at the surface is far from what one would want to produce snowfall. This storm is going to get all of its cold air aloft from that strong cutoff upper low. A heavy band will setup somewhere northwest of the low pressure center, and this is where the best chance for snowfall would occur outside of the mountains. But even that may not be enough for areas along the I-95 corridor, as temperatures look to be well in the upper 30s to low 40s. The best chance for snowfall lies along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially at higher elevations. This matches the ensemble means at this point as well, which paint a solid stripe of accumulating snowfall in that area. Snowfall farther east can certainly not be ruled out though at this time, but probabilities just aren`t looking as promising. As always, consult weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter weather forecast updates. This storm system, having trended slower in recent days, is still around 4 days out, so many things can change in that amount of time. As said in previous forecasts, cutoff upper lows are notoriously difficult to handle, and any small deviation in track/speed could spell big changes to the forecast. Precipitation should be coming to an end by Monday morning at the latest. The last several runs in guidance have held pretty firm with the timing and haven`t shown any further signs of a slowing trend. So, am growing increasingly confident in a mostly dry Monday, at least during the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 There's is also a slim possibility that the north wave doesn't quite catch up, but does have some interaction, and there's a bit of an inverted trof between the ocean low, and the incoming trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 @Uscg Ast There it is, P11 it's a 1 in 22 shot, but better odds than the roulette wheel 🤣 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Brutal winter lol 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, WeatherFlash said: Brutal winter lol The worst ever. Ugh! Once this winter I had to clear off 1/4" of snow off the car. No shoveling though. I'm wiped out from that. I need a long vacation to recover. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: @Uscg Ast There it is, P11 it's a 1 in 22 shot, but better odds than the roulette wheel 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 (edited) Thank God that silly storm is heading out to sea, so I get nothing. Good because I could use a dry stretch. Weird how I've gotten used to the idea of no snow in this winter. It's like I step outside and even though it's February, I'm accustomed to the idea of seeing a brown ground and rain every few days, just like your typical March/April weather. Edited February 9, 2023 by TheComet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: @Uscg Ast There it is, P11 it's a 1 in 22 shot, but better odds than the roulette wheel 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 9, 2023 This LP doesn't deliver snow in February... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 All we need is a 350 mile shift NW and a 10 degree cold change in temperature. Anything is possible!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 9, 2023 CMC trend over the past 4 days. GFS 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: This LP doesn't deliver snow in February... But this LP sure does 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: CMC trend over the past 4 days. GFS 3 days. This is dead in the water. Confluence keeps this shunted out and down. Zero interaction between n and s branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 This sure doesn’t help anyone…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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