Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: with that low placement it should be all snow in most of eastern,pa I 100% agree.. I just don’t know how the cold air filters in fast enough with it being so warm prior to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 The high to north is less pronounced (1026 vs. 1032.. or so) The GFS has been all over the place too, but seems to be having less (somewhat) wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, Penn State said: The high to north is less pronounced (1026 vs. 1032.. or so) The GFS has been all over the place too, but seems to be having less (somewhat) wild swings. Maybe the best case scenario is that the track starts to hone in on something east of the apps, then shifts to the SE as we approach the event. But, that likely means weaker when going in that direction. The Ohio Valley and Great Lakes folks look good here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 4, 2023 Ukie had a bit of a sheared look, being much slower with SW energy, but that has kinda been it's thing this season. GFS for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Euro still tinkering around with various items impacting this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Fwiw….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 4, 2023 I still think we should be looking at these as inland runners and/or cutters until we see something to change this pattern. There is nothing which suggests a storm potential for I95 IMHO. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Same old song and dance this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 5 hours ago, TLChip said: Same old song and dance this winter Yea this isn’t looking too good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 The model now least likely to phase is the Ukie. GFS You can see at H8 how the 850 low is consolidated in the OHV per the GFS, flooding warmth north. The Ukie on the other hand, has broken of a more substantial piece that has headed into the Canadian maritimes (GFS does bring some here, just less) this allows cold to filter down a bit after the first wave. With a second circulation near Louisiana. Again, due to the less phased scenario. This isn't too say the Ukie is even cold enough for a widespread event, or that it's more correct. More speaks to the number of waves, the timing of southern energy ejection, and subtleties of stream interaction. There's probably some lower probability outcomes that would make the larger sub forum happy, but we'd need to these little things mostly, if not all, to trend in just the right manner. No harm in keeping a casual eye on it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 Only 2 GEFS members support the very slow southern energy like the Ukie is showing. I think these would be the best bets for an impressive storm, but again, lower probability. Just have to watch how the timing in the southern stream evolves, as well as the stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 Geez, there's a low in a good spot, even looks cold enough, but there's zero moisture on the NW side. Just sits there for a couple days. Might be some high tides in NJ and NY. ECMWF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 8 hours ago, MaineJay said: The model now least likely to phase is the Ukie. GFS You can see at H8 how the 850 low is consolidated in the OHV per the GFS, flooding warmth north. The Ukie on the other hand, has broken of a more substantial piece that has headed into the Canadian maritimes (GFS does bring some here, just less) this allows cold to filter down a bit after the first wave. With a second circulation near Louisiana. Again, due to the less phased scenario. This isn't too say the Ukie is even cold enough for a widespread event, or that it's more correct. More speaks to the number of waves, the timing of southern energy ejection, and subtleties of stream interaction. There's probably some lower probability outcomes that would make the larger sub forum happy, but we'd need to these little things mostly, if not all, to trend in just the right manner. No harm in keeping a casual eye on it. Crazy I remember you used to call the Ukie mr grabby. I belive it was you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Crazy I remember you used to call the Ukie mr grabby. I belive it was you. It sure seemed like it was a reliable bias 2-3 years ago. So many upgrades on all the models had really made it challenging to figure out the new biases, and if any carry over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 0z CMC had a nice storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Well, at least we tried. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 All the tellies pointing in the wrong direction for EC snow. Not sure what March will bring but February doesn't look promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, TheComet said: All the tellies pointing in the wrong direction for EC snow. Not sure what March will bring but February doesn't look promising Avoca airport measured only 2.5” of snow for the entire month of January. I believe that is second or third all time lowest with 1.5” being the lowest. We all knew this winter wasn’t going to be anything great given the La Niña, but this is painful lol. All this talk of these “thread the needle” type systems. When was the last time we ever threaded the needle? I can’t think of any going years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Absolutely putrid nao and zero chances of 50/50 blocking hurts a lot, but the constant blow of deep wave trough after deep trough wave crashing into the west coast keeps the flow moving and doesn’t allow anything to deepen along the east coast. What’s happening out west in the pac does seem to significantly impact our weather the most, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 Anyone got hour 168 of the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 Ukie being the least phased the last couple days seems to be leading the pack on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 ECMWF over wound up bias on display. Starting to get some rest coast ridging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, MaineJay said: ECMWF over wound up bias on display. Starting to get some rest coast ridging though. What goes up must come down. Def helps for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 5, 2023 55 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Avoca airport measured only 2.5” of snow for the entire month of January. I believe that is second or third all time lowest with 1.5” being the lowest. We all knew this winter wasn’t going to be anything great given the La Niña, but this is painful lol. All this talk of these “thread the needle” type systems. When was the last time we ever threaded the needle? I can’t think of any going years back. I'm so old now that I can't get the thread through the eye without glasses. Same for tying on a fishing hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Sterlings thoughts. It earlier but…… By the end of the week, a trailing shortwave may spark low pressure over the Tennessee River Valley. As this low lifts northeastward, some colder air filtering in behind the initial wave may try to catch any associated precipitation. While rain is still most likely across most areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, a mix or change to snow is possible further west (especially over the mountains). This is a leader-follower type setup, though, and these kind of setups can be highly variable. Right now, probabilities for 1+ inch of snow in 24 hours is limited to about 20 percent over the Alleghenies, but it bears monitoring nonetheless. High pressure and seasonably cool air likely filter in for next weekend in the wake of the late week system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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