junior Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 You also have the problem if the storm ahead is slow to eject from cutting off, you’ll get too much wave interference and a positively tilted system which could be a minor event at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 It's a no-go on the 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) 00z Euro's EFI suggests a snow swath from Iowa to northern Michigan on the north side of a swath of potentially heavy QPF: Edited February 4, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, StLweatherjunkie said: Euro's EFI suggests a snow swath from Iowa to northern Michigan on the north side of a swath of potentially heavy QPF: Yeah, the primary looks like good heavy snow potential for the far north country - the southerners of the forum are putting our hopes in what comes after. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: It's a no-go on the 12z Canadian On the bright side - 12z Canadian looks like it's about to pop a nice system for Valentine's Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: It's a no-go on the 12z Canadian Not for me, I get drenched. Edited February 4, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Not for me, I get drenched. Referring to the secondary formation - the warm, primary system on Wed./Thurs. looks locked in to occur. What happens just after that on late Friday night into Saturday night is the big question mark. Edited February 4, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Yeah, the primary looks like good heavy snow potential for the far north country - the southerners of the forum are putting our hopes in what comes after. Fun times ahead. There should be a secondary system, but it seems like a positively tilted and comparatively moisture starved southern slider. I'm sure some folks will luck out, but it feels like more of a nowcast scenario instead of something that can be forecast several days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, StLweatherjunkie said: There should be a secondary system, but it seems like a positively tilted and comparatively moisture starved southern slider. I'm sure some folks will luck out, but it feels like more of a nowcast scenario instead of something that can be forecast several days out. A weak, disappointing secondary is definitely on the table, but for now I'll just pretend the GFS has it on lockdown 😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: There should be a secondary system, but it seems like a positively tilted and comparatively moisture starved southern slider. I'm sure some folks will luck out, but it feels like more of a nowcast scenario instead of something that can be forecast several days out. Let’s try and be a little positive for us southern OHV folk 😜 Edited February 4, 2023 by Mulaman984 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Uk still likes the cutoff idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 53 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: A weak, disappointing secondary is definitely on the table, but for now I'll just pretend the GFS has it on lockdown 😂 I would usually agree that the GFS ~6 to 7 days out is not close, but I went back to look at the thread from the January 24/25 system, and the GFS performed relatively well in this time frame. I seem to recall (wish?) it did well with the Christmas storm, too? Not saying its right this time, but my short term memory is that it has done well this winter. I checked @Hiramite low party tracker results, and it seems like GFS did better on the last storm based on that, as well. One can hope, right? On the other hand-I'm in the bullseye, a week out, on the GFS? Sounds like a good time to put the plows away for the rest of winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaf316 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: A weak, disappointing secondary is definitely on the table, but for now I'll just pretend the GFS has it on lockdown 😂 There are only 29 more runs of the GFS between now and next Saturday afternoon. What could possibly go wrong? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 0z Friday model comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Euro won’t happen. Too much wave interference. The h5 tells it all but the storm is still there which is all I want to see at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 38 minutes ago, junior said: Euro won’t happen. Too much wave interference. The h5 tells it all but the storm is still there which is all I want to see at this stage. Yea, storm is there but sort of a funky path/handoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 4, 2023 40 minutes ago, junior said: Euro won’t happen. Too much wave interference. The h5 tells it all but the storm is still there which is all I want to see at this stage. Exactly this! So easy to get discouraged by the surface maps. But the point.. is that the storm is still there, lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Mulaman984 said: Let’s try and be a little positive for us southern OHV folk 😜 I said some folks will get lucky, that seems pretty positive to me ... It's going to be a difficult system to track since it depends on details of the primary low a day or two earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 0z Friday model comparison... GFS progressive bias shines again. It's a wrapped up closed low, slow is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 GFS still has the follow up after the cutter. Canadian took a step in that direction too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Going to be a miss to the north me thinks. Winter is on life support in my honest opinion, and the dreaded sun angle is starting to rear it’s ugly head. I’d rather go for futility records at this point and their are plenty of them in play for many of us. Let’s not pad the stats in March and April, take our L and move on. this winter has been miserable. I’d argue rivaling 2011-2012. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 5, 2023 10 hours ago, mafa said: GFS still has the follow up after the cutter. Canadian took a step in that direction too Lost it at 6z.. hoping 12z suite brings some consistency. (Probably futile hope but I gotta try lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 I don't like it when the models decide to speed the storm system and all of the rain to the east of me! 😠 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) Still a bit of life left in this event for those in the NE section of the subforum. 24hr 10:1 ensemble means for the GEFS and CMCE. (Just a snapshot in time. These are "too late" to show the minor accums to the SW): Edited February 6, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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