Spring 2023 | Outlooks and Discussions

[so_whats_happening]

21 hours ago, adurb44 said:

Really hoping this begins soon. It is remarkably dry in Ohio. The last significant rainfall occurred on May 13th here in Central Ohio. Since then a couple of drips, but nothing material. Looks to be dry for at least the next 7-10 days. That gets us perilously close to a solid month without more than a quarter inch rainfall. 

Starting to worry for the farmers around here, and my little tree farm I planted on 10 acres this summer. I've got about 6000 mixed hardwood seedlings in the ground. I've begun pumping water out of the creek with a trash pump and am contemplating getting my hands on an old above ground swimming pool I could load up with 20,000 gallons or so. Tedious work, but with the time and money into my project, it'd be foolish not to be paranoid about this dry stretch. 

I do hope so as well. CPC did mention back toward Mid May they expect areas east of the Mississippi to moisten up June- August. Lets see what happens just hope its not a hot one if for some reason a ridge pattern does set up and stay it does still bring in the opportunity of ridge runners/ MCS for rainfall as well as later in the season tropical potential if the Gulf/ Caribbean  isn't hostile.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Well above average year-to-date precip for the TX/OK Panhandles. Problem is… the vast majority of it fell in May. Borger got almost 10” in May.

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Excuse me what 

 

[Iceresistance]

5 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Excuse me what 

 

This might be one of the rare cases where I say that it may actually happen. The ensembles and the GFS has been showing it quite some time so it may be a legit signal...

Even though I'm saying that May 31, 2013 is not going to happen all over again.

[ElectricStorm]

15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

This might be one of the rare cases where I say that it may actually happen. The ensembles and the GFS has been showing it quite some time so it may be a legit signal...

Even though I'm saying that May 31, 2013 is not going to happen all over again.

It's definitely an interesting signal that's for sure. I'm a bit skeptical though since a setup like that is so rare in June, but if models don't start backing off soon I'll start getting a little more concerned. A long ways out still so things can change. 

[Iceresistance]

13 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

It's definitely an interesting signal that's for sure. I'm a bit skeptical though since a setup like that is so rare in June, but if models don't start backing off soon I'll start getting a little more concerned. A long ways out still so things can change. 

Yeah, I have noticed the EPS and Euro are even crazier than the GFS (How often can I say that?) right now, and there is still the signal for next week.

For reference, the 0z GEFS has 35-40 knot wind shear, while the 0z EPS has 40-48 knot wind shear, even though there is a more northerly component on the 0z EPS compared to the 0z GEFS.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

We just cannot get rid of this trough in the east. Where was this pattern in the winter?🙄

[StretchCT]

GFS has the Northeast continuing with neg height anomalies basically the rest of the month. 

Midwest has some hints of summer coming through, but not until further back into the plains, where they don't need the higher heights, is there a consistency with higher heights. 

[StretchCT]

EPS is a little more optimistic with the heights, but still rebuilds the ridge over Texas and into the plains.  Some concern about agriculture in Kansas and Nebraska perhaps. There are already reports of wheat farmers in KS abandoning their crops.