Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 I've been looking at the CFSv2 model for a while and it's showing a very active Late April and into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: More like three day risk because April 2nd and 3rd needs to be watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Joe Bastardi has mentioned that April 8th through the 20th will be very inactive for Severe Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 There should be a small respite in there with a trough sliding through the east, but the length might be a bit overstated. Just going on what we have seen this year and the basic pattern, one would expect PWATs to rise somewhere between the 15th and 17th. The question then becomes, is there a trigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 8:58 AM, Iceresistance said: Joe Bastardi has mentioned that April 8th through the 20th will be very inactive for Severe Weather. Yep should be a pretty big lull (for April at least) but I don't really think it will last that long but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 We may get a break for 5 to 7 days but the last half of April could get very active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 3, 2023 This doesn't seem like a lot of precip for most of us over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 3, 2023 Temps look nice too GEFS Spoiler EPS Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 From about mid April on looks to turn active once again after a short break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted April 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 4, 2023 Not a fan of what im seeing for long range of course it still is looking far into the future and hope I am wrong in this assessment. Models are trying to spit a return of the ridging that has been ever present most of this winter in the east. Warmth would be expected in the later half of April in the east is starting to look more and more likely, while many will enjoy the warm up there will be issues that arise. The reason of concern is with the jet slowing down with seasonal changes and the ridging pattern not budging much we stand the chance of seeing this pattern hold as we go into late spring an early summer. Meaning the Midwest and areas that have been getting hit with severe weather very well could continue this pattern. This type of pattern also opens up the pathway for cut-off lows in the east getting stuck underneath the ridging pattern, low level flow coming out of the south and the Atlantic creating the potential of quite the rain potential. Models are having a bit of a tough time grasping the potential cut-off low we may have going into mid month. The last few storms have tried to go into areas of eastern Canada but seemingly have been shunted further south across New England leading to wave breaking occurring out in the Atlantic. This next system coming in will have a doorway open to going further north which may allow the ridge to briefly go west and allow for a wave break to occur over the US leading to that cutoff low around mid month. The reason why im concerned is this is an ominous pattern potential for summer and hurricane season. Weak troughing in the eastern US, which has been lacking most of the winter, may start to develop and this allows the weakness between the two ridge setup to occur (Atlantic and the mountains ridge) this draws in tropical activity and throws the potential of increased tropical activity to be steered into the Eastern US. Now this is speculation at this time but people really should not let their guard down thinking we are now having virtually no La Nina signal in oceanic anomalies so all should be good and low hurricane season is on the table. There are not many signs atmospherically we have transitioned to a more neutral state or even El Nino like so the lag effect of the La Nina ending takes us into early summer. So what really is important here in the next month or two is that we need to watch how quickly we continue to reverse the Oceanic and atmospheric portions of ENSO. How quickly do temps rise in 3, 3.4, and 4? Do we have more WWB (westerly wind bursts) that set up? Do we increase shear across the tropics and subtropics? I really have this weird feeling we are in for a hot start to summer coming up here and may very well be off to the races for tropical activity as we enter June/July. After this is a wild guess as it could be an early start and rather mundane end to the season but not before causing issues in between. Hope im wrong but after this system tomorrow it at least looks to have a brief break in widespread severe weather for a week or so. All bets are off though for severe weather after the potential of this cutoff low in the east leading into mid month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 Have to admit love firepit season back again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10, 2023 Share Posted April 10, 2023 MJO showing some signs of potentially heading towards phase 2 again later this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2023 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: MJO showing some signs of potentially heading towards phase 2 again later this month I think the bigger deal right now is the movement through phase 6 and 7. Should help get the El Nino pumping again. If we get another couple of loops like that (with 3-5 being skipped mostly) I think we'll see the true flip to an El Nino pattern by June/July with an active subtropical jet. This could extend severe weather season well into the summer for the Southern and Central Plains. July 2009 had quite a few (albeit weak) tornadoes in Kansas and even a some strong ones down in Arkansas. July 2015 was pretty active over Kansas and Missouri as well. Should be interesting to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 On 4/10/2023 at 10:10 PM, Ingyball said: I think the bigger deal right now is the movement through phase 6 and 7. Should help get the El Nino pumping again. If we get another couple of loops like that (with 3-5 being skipped mostly) I think we'll see the true flip to an El Nino pattern by June/July with an active subtropical jet. This could extend severe weather season well into the summer for the Southern and Central Plains. July 2009 had quite a few (albeit weak) tornadoes in Kansas and even a some strong ones down in Arkansas. July 2015 was pretty active over Kansas and Missouri as well. Should be interesting to watch. You mention 2009, should we worry about the temps being cooler like that year? 2009 was a cool summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 13, 2023 19 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: You mention 2009, should we worry about the temps being cooler like that year? 2009 was a cool summer. I'd have to look at the overall pattern first but SSTA wise this spring isn't too dissimilar to 2009 in terms of ENSO. It actually too longer for the La Nina to end in 2009. I'll have to look and see where the El Nino developed though. Right now it's developing from east to west and the direction it develops can have a big impact on U.S weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 13, 2023 The two earliest starting Ninos, 1965 and 1972 looked like this for March March 2023 looked like this. Not perfect, but maybe just an east-west displacement. Analogs are never gonna be 1:1, so this isn't bad in my opinion. April for 1965 and1972 blend. April so far The warm anomalies in the mid Atlantic probably won't get wiped out, but the rest of the month is looking cooler for northern New England and possibly the great lakes. I'll try and update when the month comes to a close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 🙃😭 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 🙃😭 06z 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 22 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 06z 😳 @Ohiobuckeye45 @BuckeyeGal @OHValleysnow @easton229 Winter's last stand, welcome to the current "Spring of Deception" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHValleysnow Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 8 hours ago, Iceresistance said: @Ohiobuckeye45 @BuckeyeGal @OHValleysnow @easton229 Winter's last stand, welcome to the current "Spring of Deception" Mother nature is definitely going through menopause. 😖 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 Sooo when’s the 85 and sun today, 50 and rain tomorrow swings going to stop? Sinuses are getting f***** right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 23, 2023 I thought this was an interesting video. A good watch for any other tornado history nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 24, 2023 15 day temp anomalies. This is cumulative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 On 4/23/2023 at 1:00 PM, NWOhioChaser said: Sooo when’s the 85 and sun today, 50 and rain tomorrow swings going to stop? Sinuses are getting f***** right now 2nd week of May-ish, though we should be mostly cooler than normal to average for the next 2 weeks. Problem is that then we might go straight from 60 to 80 with 1 day in between. 😝 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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