Spring 2023 | Outlooks and Discussions

[StretchCT]

Euro monthlies for Apr-May-Jun

Precip

[ElectricStorm]

I skimmed through this guy's video and he gives a fantastic explanation on his thoughts for the upcoming severe weather season. 

 

In summary he basically thinks that March/April will be active, particularly April across the plains (it's been a while...) but a likely slowdown in May. Definitely some interesting points, although most of his analog years are not particularly ideal... Overall though his forecast seems pretty reasonable to me.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

dont shoot the messenger 

[Psu1313]

What I am finding most intriguing is that the majority of the temp departures is being driven by daytime highs. Lows are really not that anomalous and in some cases are slightly above historical average. That is a continuation of what we have seen, but I really thought we would see a couple days in the low teens in the Pittsburgh region from this cold intrusion a week ago. We hit 19 on Thursday and Monday/Tuesday could hit the high teens potentially, but with an average low around 24, that’s not a massive departure. After that, not seeing huge departures from a low perspective after that. 

[so_whats_happening]

21 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

dont shoot the messenger 

I would be curious if we moderate the end of the runs for the cold seems to be that way usually. The thoughts were always mid month cold and then we start to get near average and maybe above average for about the last week. Had originally thought cold comes in after the 17th but given this east coast storm it seems a tad earlier. Thought cold would last until about the 22nd area and then we start to moderate as we close the month. This is very much following how the last -NAO was in December but with the umphh of a SSW behind it so there may be some concern just how quickly it erodes or if there is another shot in the pipe line.

 

2 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

What I am finding most intriguing is that the majority of the temp departures is being driven by daytime highs. Lows are really not that anomalous and in some cases are slightly above historical average. That is a continuation of what we have seen, but I really thought we would see a couple days in the low teens in the Pittsburgh region from this cold intrusion a week ago. We hit 19 on Thursday and Monday/Tuesday could hit the high teens potentially, but with an average low around 24, that’s not a massive departure. After that, not seeing huge departures from a low perspective after that. 

Yea the bolded has been a thing for quite some time. The winter months are especially noticeable with the lows, summer has also had much warmer lows but not nearly as many 100 degree days of course starting with such a warm low has net us more 90 degree days of recent years.

[Al_Czervik]

Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on.  Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US.

Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past?

[Iceresistance]

17 minutes ago, Al_Czervik said:

Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on.  Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US.

Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past?

This is the general time for the "Final Stratwarm Event".

[Snowgeek93]

Literally every year it's the same bull****! 😡😠

Just give me some sunshine with those cool temps so I can at least not lose my mind...😭

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on.  Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US.

Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past?

 

4 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Literally every year it's the same bull****! 😡😠

Just give me some sunshine with those cool temps so I can at least not lose my mind...😭

Well, guess we are coming to the end of the "Spring of Deception"

[so_whats_happening]

19 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on.  Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US.

Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past?

Not that I am aware of. We have more understanding of them occurring now and the processes involved so maybe that is why it seems like they occur more frequently? (plus im sure social media has a very strong impact on this as well) It really depends on just how quickly the Strat PV dissolves. With a SSW it is displaced rather quickly and if it almost coincides with the typical final warming then it just spills out and stays, that doesn't always mean it dumps over this way though. There seems to be a reasonable association of a decent -NAO pattern that sets up for this time of year with the SSW, so a suppressed storm track becomes more typical and since it technically is the final warming and the PV doesn't get itself together the pattern may get stuck in that mode until we cross the spring barrier time frame and allow more of a summer pattern to take hold.

Usually your shake-ups tend to come with the MJO but as we move through spring the MJO becomes less and less influential so more changes in albedo (melting of the snow to the north and entrance of light again north of 60* may be the key things to help move the pattern a different way. We have a couple weeks left for the MJO to have an influence on the pattern. If we get the wave to not crash to COD we stand the chance of getting quite a bit of back and forth as it tries to go through 1 and 2. 

This is what happens with March and -ENSO years going through phase 1 and then 2. Also added April in phase 2 as there is no real data (atleast on this site) with April -ENSO and phase 1. They should be labeled and as always take these especially the red bordered pics with a grain of salt. Just means few examples.

[Al_Czervik]

I can't recall the last time we saw this much blue across the country and especially out west.

[StormfanaticInd]

Heading towards phase 2 👀  ⛈️ 🌪 

[StormfanaticInd]

20 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Heading towards phase 2 👀  ⛈️ 🌪 

   Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms will probably be
   realized on Thursday across portions of these regions as both
   instability and shear strengthen ahead of a cold front/dryline.
   However, there are still notable differences/spread in both
   deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the ejection of the
   upper trough, and placement of related surface features. Parts of
   the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity may
   eventually need a 15% severe delineation once better run-to-run and
   inter-model consistency increases. Depending on the evolution of the
   upper trough and low-level moisture return ahead of it, a severe
   threat may also exist across parts of the lower MS Valley and
   Southeast on Day 8/Friday.

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the Early Spring Outbreaks are more focused in Oklahoma and Texas instead of Mississippi and Alabama compared to the past few years.

[Psu1313]

Happy Spring Everyone!!

Spring looks wet and stormy, at least to start. Over the 2-4 weeks, it looks like the south will enjoy spring and the potential for severe t-storms. Further north, a bit of a roller coaster with warmth invading before storms push temps back to around normal, maybe a few degrees below. Rinse and repeat but the good news is that warm anomalies should outweigh the cold. Then you have Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and upstate NY. It's still ski season. If we really are transitioning to El Nino (Looks like it is happening fast!) then the atmosphere may respond and warm up the northern tier pretty quickly. We'll have to see if we are in an actual El Nino already and see how long it takes the atmosphere to react. This is all for east of the Mississippi. With the predominant storm track from Texas to the Great Lakes, west of the storm will still see snow, and in some places blizzard conditions when some of the low pressure systems roll through. 

[Ingyball]

Cameron Nixon updated his tornado cases on his website a couple of days ago. https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/ It has a couple of new goodies like the Fort Worth tornado in 2000 that got me into weather and probably one of the sickest low level lapse rate Skew-ts I've ever seen, which spit out an F4.

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Cameron Nixon updated his tornado cases on his website a couple of days ago. https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/ It has a couple of new goodies like the Fort Worth tornado in 2000 that got me into weather and probably one of the sickest low level lapse rate Skew-ts I've ever seen, which spit out an F4.

I can't find the location of the Low-Level Lapse Rates, would it be okay to highlight it?

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I can't find the location of the Low-Level Lapse Rates, would it be okay to highlight it?

It's on the bottom left highlighted by the upside down L

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Ingyball said:

It's on the bottom left highlighted by the upside down L

Thanks, now I can remember the location of the Lapse Rates!

[StormfanaticInd]

Models seem to be hinting at a severe weather late next week. Something to watch 

[Iceresistance]

Early April is looking very interesting, but currently not worthy of its own topic because of how far away it is.

[StormfanaticInd]

That system around the 4th looks even more volatile. Very active times ahead!

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

That system around the 4th looks even more volatile. Very active times ahead!

 

[StormfanaticInd]

This is a pattern we have not seen since 2011. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is a pattern we have not seen since 2011. 

Uh oh, does this mean there is a legit chance we could see the Super Outbreak all over again?

I'm aware that it's generally low, but the Super Outbreak happened in Late April 2011.