Spring 2023 | Outlooks and Discussions

[NWOhioChaser]

10 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

2nd week of May-ish, though we should be mostly cooler than normal to average for the next 2 weeks. Problem is that then we might go straight from 60 to 80 with 1 day in between. 😝

Would be on par with the last few seasons! Third straight day that we have had graupel today. Will barely break 45 today too. Average is 68.

Edited April 25, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[StLweatherjunkie]

Wish I could save this for next November ... It's not as welcome in late April/early May

[Iceresistance]

14 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Wish I could save this for next November ... It's not as welcome in late April/early May

I know someone closer to Ironwood, she is really not happy about that either.

[StretchCT]

I would like this map in Dec, Feb, Jul and Aug and beginning of March.

  

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I know someone closer to Ironwood, she is really not happy about that either.

The taste of summer we had during the second week of the month really got me out of the winter mood. I'm ready for berry season!

[Al_Czervik]

On 4/27/2023 at 10:47 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

The taste of summer we had during the second week of the month really got me out of the winter mood. I'm ready for berry season!

My thought is this lasts longer than the month of May.  

[so_whats_happening]

Quite the drop in ocean temps taking place across the NW Atlantic. Persistent troughing in this region has really cooled things for the past month or so. High Latitude Blocking has had a background hold on the pattern so it seems. Much less persistent troughing out west and much less ridging potential in the east. We haven't fully flipped yet but if I remember correctly El Nino summers tend to be cool and wet across the mid Atlantic. Certainly we are putting a dent in the bit of drought we had showing up from the last couple of rainstorms.

Lets see how this El Nino develops over the next month. Not sure we hit the strong or super level. Moderate is still on the tables but need to see more consistent warming episodes with WWB action.

Edited May 4, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

woof!

[telejunkie]

Alright....what's up with the desert SW...it's almost like the monsoon arrived over a month early...? It seems to be an upslope flow as the 12z Canadian went full Tahoe-mode on the Sangre de Cristo mountains in Colorado...dumping almost a foot of qpf in the next 10 days. It's just an odd pattern seemingly more summer monsoon-like flow.

Posted this in the daily thread....but green up slowly creeping up the mountains in my hood

[StormfanaticInd]

Seems like we might be in for a cool summer 

[Al_Czervik]

20 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Seems like we might be in for a cool summer 

Looking like 2000, 2009, 2014 would be a good match.

[Al_Czervik]

On 5/11/2023 at 7:19 AM, Al_Czervik said:

Looking like 2000, 2009, 2014 would be a good match.

Maybe even 1992  🤮

[telejunkie]

On 5/4/2023 at 11:13 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Feel like it's been a while since we've seen cold anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico

[MaineJay]

On 5/10/2023 at 10:36 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Seems like we might be in for a cool summer 

You speaking local to you, or nationally?

[StormfanaticInd]

18 hours ago, MaineJay said:

You speaking local to you, or nationality?

In the eastern 3rd

[MaineJay]

If your have Amazon prime, there's a pretty informative 24 episode series on meteorology.  Looks like it was made in the early 90s, but it's less than 15 years old.  My wife asked how it wasn't putting me to sleep, but I thoroughly enjoyed it.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0B8QSVS27/ref=atv_dp_share_cu_r

[StormfanaticInd]

This season has really gone quite for me. 

[StormfanaticInd]

On 5/18/2023 at 3:00 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

This season has really gone quite for me. 

This is a very odd pattern for May. I don't think I have ever seen May so quite here in Indiana 

[Al_Czervik]

On 5/21/2023 at 1:59 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

This is a very odd pattern for May. I don't think I have ever seen May so quite here in Indiana 

Too many cold fronts, not enough warm ups with gulf air flowing north.  I personally don't think we are in for a warm or active summer.  Looking into el nino conversion years, 2014 and 2000 seem like a good match.  Both were cooler and wetter.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

Too many cold fronts, not enough warm ups with gulf air flowing north.  I personally don't think we are in for a warm or active summer.  Looking into el nino conversion years, 2014 and 2000 seem like a good match.  Both were cooler and wetter.

 

 

I would have that kind of Summer over last year.

[StormfanaticInd]

This just continues to be strange 

[Iceresistance]

18 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This just continues to be strange 

Low tornado count for Oklahoma in May, which is weird even for El Nino...

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/4/2023 at 3:16 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Not a fan of what im seeing for long range of course it still is looking far into the future and hope I am wrong in this assessment. Models are trying to spit a return of the ridging that has been ever present most of this winter in the east. Warmth would be expected in the later half of April in the east is starting to look more and more likely, while many will enjoy the warm up there will be issues that arise. The reason of concern is with the jet slowing down with seasonal changes and the ridging pattern not budging much we stand the chance of seeing this pattern hold as we go into late spring an early summer. Meaning the Midwest and areas that have been getting hit with severe weather very well could continue this pattern. This type of pattern also opens up the pathway for cut-off lows in the east getting stuck underneath the ridging pattern, low level flow coming out of the south and the Atlantic creating the potential of quite the rain potential. Models are having a bit of a tough time grasping the potential cut-off low we may have going into mid month.

The last few storms have tried to go into areas of eastern Canada but seemingly have been shunted further south across New England leading to wave breaking occurring out in the Atlantic. This next system coming in will have a doorway open to going further north which may allow the ridge to briefly go west and allow for a wave break to occur over the US leading to that cutoff low around mid month. The reason why im concerned is this is an ominous pattern potential for summer and hurricane season. Weak troughing in the eastern US, which has been lacking most of the winter, may start to develop and this allows the weakness between the two ridge setup to occur (Atlantic and the mountains ridge) this draws in tropical activity and throws the potential of increased tropical activity to be steered into the Eastern US. 

Now this is speculation at this time but people really should not let their guard down thinking we are now having virtually no La Nina signal in oceanic anomalies so all should be good and low hurricane season is on the table. There are not many signs atmospherically we have transitioned to a more neutral state or even El Nino like so the lag effect of the La Nina ending takes us into early summer. So what really is important here in the next month or two is that we need to watch how quickly we continue to reverse the Oceanic and atmospheric portions of ENSO. How quickly do temps rise in 3, 3.4, and 4? Do we have more WWB (westerly wind bursts) that set up? Do we increase shear across the tropics and subtropics?

I really have this weird feeling we are in for a hot start to summer coming up here and may very well be off to the races for tropical activity as we enter June/July. After this is a wild guess as it could be an early start and rather mundane end to the season but not before causing issues in between. Hope im wrong but after this system tomorrow it at least looks to have a brief break in widespread severe weather for a week or so. All bets are off though for severe weather after the potential of this cutoff low in the east leading into mid month. 

Well we drastically cooled the last few days of April into a rather cold start of May, little unexpected for sure. We have not increased the amount of rainfall at all outside of the two weeks from late april into early may so that is disappointing. We have though seen the continuation of cut off lows take hold across the SE and a much wetter Gulf coastal states. Severe weather has been mostly confined to the upper midwest and the front range. 

There has been a lack of ENSO push overall as we soon enter June. One thing that does seem to be coming though is the hot start to summer. After a few random days here and there the next two weeks could get interesting with heat. With how dry things have become from the Mississippi on east is worrisome of a hot summer, in fact if the Euro is in anyway correct we could have some 100s popping up in about a week across 95 corridor especially NYC south. As well as mid to upper 90s from upper midwest to Ohio river valley. The GFS is just polar opposite right now as it tries to increase rainfall and cool the temps as we go into mid June.

So far no tropical activity in many of the basins (WPAC still dealing with a system) just rather quiet. Need to expend a lot of energy and the lack of tropical activity is a bit concerning. Overall though a remarkably great spring around the area. Not super wet, no super humid and not incredibly warm/cold. In fact the dew point as we are entering June is rather low for this time of year normally we start to see dew points rise around Mid May but not the case so far this year. I will gladly take the reprieve from stupid swamp conditions.

 

Looking forward the rain should begin to increase across the east as the El Nino atmosphere tries to really set in. When that does happen we will probably shut off any potential of pushing 100 and maybe even mid to upper 90s but we will have to wait and see how much rain can fall. Sitting at about 6-8" below on the year going into summer. Depending just how this plays out coming up we may set ourselves up for NW flow/ ring of fire/MCS weather across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic (maybe into southern New England depending on how much it flexes) that should at least give us some fun and interesting weather to track.

[adurb44]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looking forward the rain should begin to increase across the east as the El Nino atmosphere tries to really set in. When that does happen we will probably shut off any potential of pushing 100 and maybe even mid to upper 90s but we will have to wait and see how much rain can fall. Sitting at about 6-8" below on the year going into summer. Depending just how this plays out coming up we may set ourselves up for NW flow/ ring of fire/MCS weather across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic (maybe into southern New England depending on how much it flexes) that should at least give us some fun and interesting weather to track.

Really hoping this begins soon. It is remarkably dry in Ohio. The last significant rainfall occurred on May 13th here in Central Ohio. Since then a couple of drips, but nothing material. Looks to be dry for at least the next 7-10 days. That gets us perilously close to a solid month without more than a quarter inch rainfall. 

Starting to worry for the farmers around here, and my little tree farm I planted on 10 acres this summer. I've got about 6000 mixed hardwood seedlings in the ground. I've begun pumping water out of the creek with a trash pump and am contemplating getting my hands on an old above ground swimming pool I could load up with 20,000 gallons or so. Tedious work, but with the time and money into my project, it'd be foolish not to be paranoid about this dry stretch. 

[NWOhioChaser]

On 5/14/2023 at 12:46 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

In the eastern 3rd

If that comes with average seasonal precipitation then I’m game. 

Edited June 1, 2023 by NWOhioChaser