Moderators StretchCT Posted March 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 6, 2023 Euro monthlies for Apr-May-Jun Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I skimmed through this guy's video and he gives a fantastic explanation on his thoughts for the upcoming severe weather season. In summary he basically thinks that March/April will be active, particularly April across the plains (it's been a while...) but a likely slowdown in May. Definitely some interesting points, although most of his analog years are not particularly ideal... Overall though his forecast seems pretty reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 dont shoot the messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 What I am finding most intriguing is that the majority of the temp departures is being driven by daytime highs. Lows are really not that anomalous and in some cases are slightly above historical average. That is a continuation of what we have seen, but I really thought we would see a couple days in the low teens in the Pittsburgh region from this cold intrusion a week ago. We hit 19 on Thursday and Monday/Tuesday could hit the high teens potentially, but with an average low around 24, that’s not a massive departure. After that, not seeing huge departures from a low perspective after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2023 21 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: dont shoot the messenger I would be curious if we moderate the end of the runs for the cold seems to be that way usually. The thoughts were always mid month cold and then we start to get near average and maybe above average for about the last week. Had originally thought cold comes in after the 17th but given this east coast storm it seems a tad earlier. Thought cold would last until about the 22nd area and then we start to moderate as we close the month. This is very much following how the last -NAO was in December but with the umphh of a SSW behind it so there may be some concern just how quickly it erodes or if there is another shot in the pipe line. 2 hours ago, Psu1313 said: What I am finding most intriguing is that the majority of the temp departures is being driven by daytime highs. Lows are really not that anomalous and in some cases are slightly above historical average. That is a continuation of what we have seen, but I really thought we would see a couple days in the low teens in the Pittsburgh region from this cold intrusion a week ago. We hit 19 on Thursday and Monday/Tuesday could hit the high teens potentially, but with an average low around 24, that’s not a massive departure. After that, not seeing huge departures from a low perspective after that. Yea the bolded has been a thing for quite some time. The winter months are especially noticeable with the lows, summer has also had much warmer lows but not nearly as many 100 degree days of course starting with such a warm low has net us more 90 degree days of recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on. Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US. Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, Al_Czervik said: Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on. Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US. Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past? This is the general time for the "Final Stratwarm Event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowgeek93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Literally every year it's the same bull****! 😡😠 Just give me some sunshine with those cool temps so I can at least not lose my mind...😭 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on. Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US. Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past? 4 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said: Literally every year it's the same bull****! 😡😠 Just give me some sunshine with those cool temps so I can at least not lose my mind...😭 Well, guess we are coming to the end of the "Spring of Deception" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 19 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: Looking at cpc, trop tidbits, delayed spring is on. Never ceases to amaze that nearly every time the strat warms, that all the cold dumps in the eastern US. Do Strat warmings occur more frequently now than in the past? Not that I am aware of. We have more understanding of them occurring now and the processes involved so maybe that is why it seems like they occur more frequently? (plus im sure social media has a very strong impact on this as well) It really depends on just how quickly the Strat PV dissolves. With a SSW it is displaced rather quickly and if it almost coincides with the typical final warming then it just spills out and stays, that doesn't always mean it dumps over this way though. There seems to be a reasonable association of a decent -NAO pattern that sets up for this time of year with the SSW, so a suppressed storm track becomes more typical and since it technically is the final warming and the PV doesn't get itself together the pattern may get stuck in that mode until we cross the spring barrier time frame and allow more of a summer pattern to take hold. Usually your shake-ups tend to come with the MJO but as we move through spring the MJO becomes less and less influential so more changes in albedo (melting of the snow to the north and entrance of light again north of 60* may be the key things to help move the pattern a different way. We have a couple weeks left for the MJO to have an influence on the pattern. If we get the wave to not crash to COD we stand the chance of getting quite a bit of back and forth as it tries to go through 1 and 2. This is what happens with March and -ENSO years going through phase 1 and then 2. Also added April in phase 2 as there is no real data (atleast on this site) with April -ENSO and phase 1. They should be labeled and as always take these especially the red bordered pics with a grain of salt. Just means few examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 I can't recall the last time we saw this much blue across the country and especially out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Heading towards phase 2 👀 ⛈️ 🌪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 20 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Heading towards phase 2 👀 ⛈️ 🌪 Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms will probably be realized on Thursday across portions of these regions as both instability and shear strengthen ahead of a cold front/dryline. However, there are still notable differences/spread in both deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough, and placement of related surface features. Parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity may eventually need a 15% severe delineation once better run-to-run and inter-model consistency increases. Depending on the evolution of the upper trough and low-level moisture return ahead of it, a severe threat may also exist across parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Day 8/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 I've noticed that the Early Spring Outbreaks are more focused in Oklahoma and Texas instead of Mississippi and Alabama compared to the past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Happy Spring Everyone!! Spring looks wet and stormy, at least to start. Over the 2-4 weeks, it looks like the south will enjoy spring and the potential for severe t-storms. Further north, a bit of a roller coaster with warmth invading before storms push temps back to around normal, maybe a few degrees below. Rinse and repeat but the good news is that warm anomalies should outweigh the cold. Then you have Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and upstate NY. It's still ski season. If we really are transitioning to El Nino (Looks like it is happening fast!) then the atmosphere may respond and warm up the northern tier pretty quickly. We'll have to see if we are in an actual El Nino already and see how long it takes the atmosphere to react. This is all for east of the Mississippi. With the predominant storm track from Texas to the Great Lakes, west of the storm will still see snow, and in some places blizzard conditions when some of the low pressure systems roll through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2023 Cameron Nixon updated his tornado cases on his website a couple of days ago. https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/ It has a couple of new goodies like the Fort Worth tornado in 2000 that got me into weather and probably one of the sickest low level lapse rate Skew-ts I've ever seen, which spit out an F4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Cameron Nixon updated his tornado cases on his website a couple of days ago. https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/ It has a couple of new goodies like the Fort Worth tornado in 2000 that got me into weather and probably one of the sickest low level lapse rate Skew-ts I've ever seen, which spit out an F4. I can't find the location of the Low-Level Lapse Rates, would it be okay to highlight it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I can't find the location of the Low-Level Lapse Rates, would it be okay to highlight it? It's on the bottom left highlighted by the upside down L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: It's on the bottom left highlighted by the upside down L Thanks, now I can remember the location of the Lapse Rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Models seem to be hinting at a severe weather late next week. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Early April is looking very interesting, but currently not worthy of its own topic because of how far away it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 That system around the 4th looks even more volatile. Very active times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: That system around the 4th looks even more volatile. Very active times ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 (edited) This is a pattern we have not seen since 2011. Edited March 29, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is a pattern we have not seen since 2011. Uh oh, does this mean there is a legit chance we could see the Super Outbreak all over again? I'm aware that it's generally low, but the Super Outbreak happened in Late April 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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