TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 A classic winter pattern is about to set up. Here's what you need to know about its potential impacts. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2023-01-27-arctic-cold-snap-snow-ice-south-forecast?cm_ven=dnt_social_facebook&social_post=8757860009 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: I love how the High up north turns into a Great Lakes low this run 🤪 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, mafa said: I love how the High up north turns into a Great Lakes low this run 🤪 Models having trouble with this time frame for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Does someone have the Sleet Accumulation on the RDPS? Also needs to be pushed back to January 30th, that is when it starts on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 The NAV tends to have a more progressive bias, so I'm encouraged to see some decent action on this run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Overnight runs were ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Overnight runs were ugly You are too kind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 28, 2023 It's like suppression depression.. without terrible cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Hope this doesn’t fizzle out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Long-range NAM looks good. And the long-range NAM is never wrong… 🙃 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 RGEM has been very consistent with putting down a fairly significant band of freezing rain through parts of IN/OH early Monday morning 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 GFS tries to get something going Wed. night into Thurs. morning, otherwise the 12z suite is a fail so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) Here comes the cold front. Pretty damn sharp. Good bye air tire pressure. Edited January 29, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Here comes the cold front. Pretty damn sharp. Good bye air tire pressure. Also, RIP your eardrums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 RGEM more bullish compared to other models for late tonight into Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 59 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: RGEM more bullish compared to other models for late tonight into Monday morning All rain for me. I believe that!!! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 It's already 22°F outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) Was hoping to get away from complicated winter setups but we're getting 3 in 1 week. Had some very low clouds this morning when it was 17 degrees and managed to get like 5 hours of flurries out of them. Nothing on radar. Now we have 2 rounds of wintry precip this week with weird temp profiles and questionable forcing .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 A relatively tricky forecast in place through tomorrow night. The first dilemma will be whether we produce any freezing drizzle, or isolated snow showers, or perhaps sleet Monday morning. Could be a combination of sorts as well. These are all candidates for precipitation type given the variety of temperature profiles suggested from the models. Although very little to no accumulation of sorts is anticipated Monday morning, the type of precipitation makes a big difference. For example, light freezing drizzle could have impacts, but a light amount of isolated snowfall would create less impacts. Details are going to be important for tomorrow morning, and there are several things working against precipitation in general as well. There is a better signal south of our area for impacts. Then another round of precipitation is anticipated Tuesday morning, and could start as early as the end of the short term, but chances are better after 6am Tuesday. Overall, the focus in the short term is really tonight into Monday morning since Tuesday precipitation has a better chances to start in the "long term" portion of the forecast. Zonal flow at 500mb will transition to southwesterly tonight as a closed low digs south over portions of Southern California. The one problem here with the location of the H5 low center is we may be too far displaced for any large scale ascent. In other words, there is a lack of vorticity advection aloft. Additionally, the better theta-e axis at 700mb is south of our area. The one area we may have lift is on the one isentropic surface at ~295K. This low level lift may be just enough to help produce precipitation, but its going to be tough relying on this weak forcing. This would be a much different story if we have better lift/forcing. Forecast soundings are saturated in the lower levels, but we have some dry air to overcome near the surface. There is also a warm-nose layer in these forecast soundings. Temperatures Monday morning are rather cold at the surface approaching -10C. The warm nose would suggest some melting of hydrometeors, but the rapid cooling near the surface might lead to more of a sleet solution rather than freezing drizzle. That said, this is definitely not a straightforward forecast scenario. We are leaning more towards sleet or even snow pellets. Given the cold surface temperatures it would be hard for supercooled water droplets to maintain and then freeze on conduct at the surface. Of course, it would not take much alteration in the temperature profile to change this, so its going to be a situation where we may not know exactly until tonight what we are dealing with. At this time, its safe to say we could have minor impacts across the south/southeast TX Panhandle, but confidence is extremely low at this time. The lack of forcing may end up being the key component here. Guerrero && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 There are two rounds of possible wintry weather this coming week... Tuesday into early Wednesday and Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The first round of precip is the more complicated of the two because, if it does precipitate (still questionable but trending south), there`s also uncertainty about what kind of precip would fall. That said, the precip chances are focused on the southern half of the Panhandles. Forecast soundings for Tuesday morning show some characteristics of what would be a freezing drizzle sounding (saturated below 700mb in the 0C to -5C range), but from there the temps steadily cool down to the 15 to 18 degree Fahrenheit range. This could turn supercooled liquid droplets into more of a sleet-like hydrometeor. In case that doesn`t complicate it enough, there`s an arguably non- negligible dry layer near the surface that could either evaporate some of the precip or eliminate the hydrometeor altogether. With that said, this kind of precip could make roads slippery like freezing rain or snow would. However, the east-central Texas Panhandle has a thermo profile more supportive of snow should it precipitate. With all this said... NBM has pushed PoPs further south compared to the last suite, so this entire paragraph may not ultimately matter. There`s more uncertainty regarding whether precip will fall for the second round but the p-type should be easier to sort out, even though multiple p-types will be in play. Will dive into this more in future discussions, but currently the details are a bit too uncertain to dive into further with some confidence. Next weekend looks warmer than average as ridging returns. Vanden Bosch/Beat Edited January 29, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Crud, I'm getting Freezing Drizzle at 21°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 30, 2023 (edited) Solid freezing drizzle sounding in Norman and it's pretty much what I was describing in my AFD here for Tuesday morning. Difference is the surface temp here is about 6 degrees warmer than the forecast soundings I was looking at which might make the difference between freezing drizzle and something else like snow pellets Edited January 30, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 30, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 30, 2023 (edited) Well this seems to have escalated pretty quickly. (Although I haven't been paying attention to the situation.) All WWA appear to be for a light wintry mix. Edited January 30, 2023 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 30, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 30, 2023 (edited) Some significant icing too! Ice Storm Warnings in portions of TN, AR and MS. ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Ice accumulations of a quarter to one half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Edited January 30, 2023 by Hiramite 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Some significant icing too! Ice Storm Warnings in portions of TN, AR and MS. ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Ice accumulations of a quarter to one half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 1/2 inch ice is devastating!!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 Had a glaze of ice on all elevated surfaces this morning...roads/sidewalks are just wet though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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