TLChip Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Not the 2nd but the 5th… guess we keep tracking and see what happens. Ensembles aren’t nearly as bold. Euro OP EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 Lots of different solutions still for this time period, definitely no consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27, 2023 Here's a model comparison at Hour 156.. Looks like an overrunning event to me. Looks like there's a good supply of cold air.. one question would be how strong is the high, and where is it placed. If there's a lot of gulf moisture, could be quite an ice and snow event for some. GFS and Euro have some agreement at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 27, 2023 16 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: If this period produces nothing, I am going to root for an all out shutout for NYC. It's like rooting for your team to lose the rest of the games so your team gets a draft pick. 4 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It's like rooting for your team to lose the rest of the games so your team gets a draft pick. Excellent analogy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It's like rooting for your team to lose the rest of the games so your team gets a draft pick. Which they promptly waste on a bust since they are such a poorly run team that they lose all their games 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, 1816 said: Which they promptly waste on a bust since they are such a poorly run team that they lose all their games So the car doesn't have an engine... It's pretty da*n it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 ICON is much improved. GFS running now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looks like ICON timing is way different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, TLChip said: Not the 2nd but the 5th… guess we keep tracking and see what happens. Ensembles aren’t nearly as bold. Euro OP EPS The ECMWF OP brings that SW low out slow, and then slides energy down a west coast ridge, fairly favorably. GFS plows a southern stream wave into Cali. They really diverge buy D7-8. For this threat, it seems that some energy gets peeled off that SW trof, but how much and when is a little tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 (edited) GFS CMC IS suppression depression. Good lord please don't do that to us after how warm it's been. It would literally be a fairytale story. I can totally see it being cutter/ rain too warm to cold dry suppression and DC or the Carolinas snows. Edited January 27, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 27, 2023 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 More stream interaction in the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: Ukie Ukie has been pretty flat many instances this year. Professor grabby is now professor hands off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Ukie has been pretty flat many instances this year. Professor grabby is now professor hands off. I feel that all the changes they've made to all the models in the last few years is throwing me off. And when I try to learn the new biases, they upgrade it again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 27, 2023 GEFS with some nearly full blown Nor'easter, only like a 5-10% chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 (edited) Sterling as confused as it was this morning… Story for the fill in the blank. lows , ridges and highs. Put them where you like. Well maybe not there Quote LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Monday, an upper trough will be located over the western CONUS with a ridge in place over the Caribbean with low pressure moving through the area with a cold frontal passage. Some light precipitation is expected to linger into the the morning behind the front but should diminish by the afternoon. Some models continue upslope showers along the Allegheny Front into Tuesday, but there is disagreement. The front is expected to linger south of the area through mid-week, maintaining cloud cover. Another bout of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave passes to the north. Model spread in the 12z suite of guidance remains high for the Tuesday/Wednesday system, with significant discrepancies on precip type or if any precip occurs. The ECMWF produces the driest solution, with most precip missing us to the south, with the CMC producing the wettest while the GFS is the coldest. Uncertainty increases this far out, especially given the changing pattern. For now, a wintry mix is possible, with the greatest chance for wintry precip along and west of the Alleghenies. Temperatures are expected to start above normal and decrease through the period, so uncertainty regarding temperatures increase beyond Tuesday. Edited January 27, 2023 by Wtkidz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27, 2023 If that northern stream could just dive right in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Hell, even though I'm in the Ohio Valley, I'm ready for a wound up system in the region of this thread. I tend to be jealous of good Ole winter noreasters but it's weird and unfun to not track one! Edited January 28, 2023 by RobB 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 After a few runs of hope, EPS walking away from this threat for Central PA. Very low probs to near flat-lining, compared the previous few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 GFS 6z says go south young human. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Cant even get a clipper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just not going to make it.. staying south and cold pushes it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) This might give NYC it's first inch. Euro doesn't have it at all, just the southern system. Edited January 28, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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