Iceresistance Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 When will this January madness ever end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z GFS has the severe threat confined to the far southern gulf coast areas, but there's some solid soundings in there. Obviously storm mode is uncertain this far out, but hopefully it'll be a linear event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Slight risk along the coastal states, marginal risk does include Houston and @CentralLA_Wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 22, 2023 On 1/20/2023 at 9:45 AM, Iceresistance said: When will this January madness ever end? February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 22, 2023 SPC mentions a possible strong tornado threat. I was thinking it would be possible but I didn't think the warm sector really eclipsed land enough. Something to watch. Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible, perhaps near mid to upper Texas coastal areas early Tuesday afternoon, but more likely across southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. These may become capable of producing tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that an initially prominent mid-level high over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific will weaken, with a new high beginning to form in higher latitudes, within persistent larger-scale ridging. This ridging is forecast to continue to build north-northeastward across British Columbia, Yukon and parts of the Northwest Territories through this period, with amplified troughing being maintained downstream, along and east of the Rocky Mountains. The most prominent embedded short wave perturbation within this regime, initially in the base of this troughing, is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of southwest Texas by early Tuesday. Aside from the NCEP SREF (with the 22/03Z run remaining a notable slower outlier), most model output indicates that the perturbation will rapidly progress across the southern Great Plains into the Mid South by late Tuesday night, accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into and through the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid South. As this occurs, an intense west-southwesterly mid/upper jet (including 90-100 kt around 500 mb) is forecast to develop across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys by 12Z Wednesday. In association with the developing cyclone, a southerly low-level jet may include speeds increasing in excess of 50-70 kt to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley during a period of more rapid deepening Tuesday evening. A similar earlier period of cyclone deepening and wind field intensification is also appearing increasingly probable near mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Tuesday afternoon. ...Texas coastal areas through central Gulf Coast states... Given the synoptic forcing, the presence of an initially cool/stable boundary layer across much of the Gulf Coast region is the primary limiting factor to the development of a more substantive risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night. The boundary layer across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico will also still be in the process of modifying from prior frontal intrusions, but it does appear that mid/upper 60s F surface dew points may rapidly advect toward northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. Boundary-layer destabilization near, if not inland of, mid into upper Texas coastal areas may contribute to an environment conducive to supercell development around midday into early afternoon. Thereafter, boundary-layer moistening within at least a narrow inland corridor across southeastern Louisiana into south central Alabama still seems probable Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Beneath a plume of modestly steepening lapse rates, this is expected to contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization sufficient to support organized convective development. This may include a developing line of storms along a pre-frontal confluence zone, perhaps preceded by more discrete supercells. While it appears possible that moist adiabatic to more stable near-surface lapse rates could tend to minimize the number of potentially severe storms, even with only somewhat better boundary-layer modification than currently forecast, a more substantive severe weather threat may still develop. Very large and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs forecast to develop within the warm sector will contribute to wind profiles potentially supportive of strong tornadoes in supercell storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: February That is the most likely time for it to end until March/April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) Strong rotation in SE GA. Debris up to ~10k feet. This was 20 mins ago. Edited January 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralLA_Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Slight risk along the coastal states, marginal risk does include Houston and @CentralLA_Wx May not warm up too much here Tuesday as it looks like the warm sector may stay to my south. Could get some heavy rainfall regardless. Edited January 23, 2023 by CentralLA_Wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Enhanced risk is up with a 10 hatched tornado area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 23, 2023 10% hatched added for SE TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Long-duration event tomorrow. Extreme shear along the coast. Big issue is storm mode and the warm sector being not far onto shore. But that extreme shear should make embedded tornadoes pretty easy to come across. SE TX Edited January 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Enhanced expanded to bridge the gap from the previous outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 Early start in SE TX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 Tornado watch coming Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 241616Z - 241815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Environmental conditions along the middle/upper TX coast into southwest LA will support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, this afternoon. A Tornado Watch will be needed along the middle /upper TX coast to southwest LA within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles northwest of NIR in northern Bea County TX. A warm front extends east-northeastward from this low through Galveston Bay and then off the far southeast TX coast. The air mass south of this warm front is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s/upper 60s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Expectation is for this front to gradually lift northward as the surface low transitions east-northeastward. As it does, modest surface-based buoyancy is anticipated across the middle and upper TX coast. Robust low-level wind fields are also in place, with mesoanalysis estimating 50-60 kt at 850 mb from CRP vicinity northward into southeast TX. Southeasterly surface winds exist throughout the warm sector, resulting in strong low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD profiles from CRP and HGX sampled 300 m2/s2 and 800 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and these environmental conditions are expected to support strong to severe thunderstorms. More linear development is anticipated along the front south of the low, but some potential for discrete warm-sector development exists as well. Any discrete storms would likely become supercellular with the potential for all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Given the strong low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible. As a result, a Tornado Watch will be needed along the middle/upper TX coast in far southwest LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 possible tornado close to Houston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Extreme shear at Houston. 600 m2/s2 at 0-500m. Instability is likely to be marginal all day, so localized higher instability will be key to storms being able to take advantage of the shear, as well as boundaries/mergers Edited January 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Tornado Watch out, I'm glad that the instability is lower or we would be facing a very serious outbreak potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 Decent supercell SW of Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 No shortage of rotating cells today. Expecting plenty of false alarm cells. More bark than bite. Some should definitely bite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Looks like the squall has begun. Now we watch for embedded supercells and warm sector supercells. Edited January 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Debris signature. Rotation doesn't look convincing so, 1) tornadic rotation was below this beam scan. Unlikely because this is looking at 1400 feet agl. 2) brief tornado occurred between radar scans Edited January 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 There's an embedded tornadic supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 whew 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 Very strong rotation. Notice where KHGX is in relation to this supercell Current VWP for KHGX. Extreme shear. No wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Very strong rotation. Notice where KHGX is in relation to this supercell Current VWP for KHGX. Extreme shear. No wonder. That tornado is looking big EDIT: It just went PDS Edited January 24, 2023 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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