January 25-26, 2023 | Winter Storm

[MDBlueridge]

Snow, rain, snow, repeat 

Would not be surprised to see more thumpity thump than progged at the front of this one

Unreal to see the T-storm activity....again

Edited January 25, 2023 by MDBlueridge

[StretchCT]

3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The moon has an 18.6 year cycle, so there's basically one decade where the moon angle is higher in relation to the sun-earth plane, then one decade where the angle is lower. This lower angle increases the tides, this lower angle regime is the part of the cycle we entered recently.

I was expecting @MDBlueridge to comment here...

Also, just want to point out that Nassau County (LI) is looking at a Coastal Flood Warning, not advisory.

Spoiler

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
440 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

NYZ179-250545-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0001.230126T0200Z-230126T0700Z/
Southern Nassau-
440 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...Southern Nassau County.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas is expected
  near the waterfront and shoreline, including roads, parking
  lots, parks, lawns, and homes and businesses with basements near
  the waterfront. Numerous road closures are likely, and vehicles
  parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely
  become flooded. Flooding will also extend inland from the
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/10 PM   4.6/ 5.1  -0.3/ 0.2   0.0/ 0.5     2       NONE
 25/10 AM   5.5/ 6.0   0.6/ 1.1   0.6/ 1.1     1       NONE
 25/11 PM   6.6/ 7.1   1.7/ 2.2   2.0/ 2.5    5-7     MINOR
 26/11 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.4/ 0.9   0.8/ 1.3     6       NONE

REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/10 PM   4.6/ 5.1  -0.2/ 0.3   0.2/ 0.7    2-3      NONE
 25/10 AM   5.4/ 5.9   0.7/ 1.1   0.8/ 1.3     1       NONE
 25/11 PM   6.5/ 7.0   1.8/ 2.2   2.2/ 2.7    6-9   MIN-MOD
 26/11 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.5/ 1.0   1.0/ 1.5     8       NONE

HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/10 PM   4.7/ 5.2   0.2/ 0.7   1.6/ 2.0     0       NONE
 25/11 AM   5.6/ 6.1   1.1/ 1.6   2.1/ 2.6     0       NONE
 25/11 PM   6.9/ 7.4   2.3/ 2.8   3.7/ 4.2    0-1    MODERATE
 26/11 AM   5.5/ 6.0   1.0/ 1.5   2.5/ 3.0    0-1      NONE

&&

$$

 

[MDBlueridge]

7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The moon has an 18.6 year cycle, so there's basically one decade where the moon angle is higher in relation to the sun-earth plane, then one decade where the angle is lower. This lower angle increases the tides, this lower angle regime is the part of the cycle we entered recently.

Good Night. You're such a nerd. 

You must be a hit at dinner parties. 

Hello @MaineJay, what time is it?

"Gather round children and let old @MaineJay tell you how to build a clock"

- @MaineJay

Edited January 25, 2023 by MDBlueridge

[MaineJay]

4 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Good Night. You're such a nerd. 

You must be a hit at dinner parties. 

It was the decimal, wasn't it. 🤓

[StretchCT]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Buoy off Texas is under 1000mb

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=txpt2

Related...

 

[JDClapper]

Man, I wish I was this optimistic as CTP is for me. 7:30pm update. Still in a watch for 4-6", that starts in 6 hours. Fully expect Advisory any minute and this gets cut in half.

[MaineJay]

14 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Man, I wish I was this optimistic as CTP is for me. 7:30pm update. Still in a watch for 4-6", that starts in 6 hours. Fully expect Advisory any minute and this gets cut in half.

[Wayuphere]

Caribou mentioned the “B” word in their evening discussion, but declined issuing a warning.

[JDClapper]

Someone was chatty at CTP. 10:21pm update.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak and transient high pressure over northern New England
should supply sufficiently cold air for precipitation to begin
as snow over almost all of central PA Wednesday morning.
However, a warm nose aloft will quickly work in, changing the
snow to mixed precipitation through the day. Portions of
southern PA and the lower Susquehanna Valley will likely
see some plain liquid rain by noon, with the transition to sleet
and rain progressing north through the afternoon.

After detailed discussion internally, external collaboration
with WPC and surrounding WFOs, and particularly the wisdom for
"Leveraging the uncertainty of ensemble guidance" - passed down
from our recently retired SOO (Science and Operations Officer),
we`ll continue to ride the Winter Storm Watch for at least one
more model cycle as the probability for 6 inches or more is less
than 40% (where it`s maximized) in most places surrounding
Interstate 80. 4-5 inches looks pretty solid in the current
Watch area, with similar or slightly lesser amounts being more
definitive outside of the Watch.

In either case, a few-several hour period of moderate to heavy
snowfall rates will likely lead to high impact for travel, but
we still need to draw the line somewhere when it comes to
actual amounts. Given our criteria of 6"/12 hour for a warning
and the aforementioned probs for that amount - Advisory Criteria
Amounts look more probable, but we don`t want to downplay the
"Impact", especially from the Central/NCent Mtns east across the
Middle and W Branch of the Susq Valley.

Strong synoptic support and anomalous moisture transport from
the GOMEX into retreating cold dome will produce an initial,
quick "2-3 hour dump" of snow with a high likelihood of 1+
inch/hr rates across the interior zones. The main uncertainty
lies with how long the heavy snow/rates will last as there will
be an inevitable transition to a wintry mix due to tremendous
WAA driving burgeoning warm nose aloft followed by 300-700mb
layer dry slot arriving from the OH Valley by late
afternoon/early evening.

Several deterministic pieces of guidance and GEFS indicate that
the max Tw aloft will stay just below zero through 18z for much
of the CWA east and north of a line from KELZ to KUNV and KSEG,
with the PTYPE snow between 11-13 and 18-19Z.

Model soundings indicate the changeover is likely by late
morning over the Laurel Highlands and reach the mountains north
of KIPT by around 22Z. An examination of model time sections
indicates the strongest lift will occur well beneath the DGZ, so
expect snow/liquid ratios not far from 10:1. Ensemble mean qpf
currently suggests a widespread 3-6 inch snowfall is likely
across much of the forecast area, with significantly less across
the Lower Susq Valley, where a change to rain is likely after a
relatively short period of snow. 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates
are possible for a time Thursday, given the plume of GOMEX
moisture and strong forcing associated with coupled jet
structure.

Expect breezy and drier conditions to arrive late Wed night, as
a trailing occluded front sweeps through. However, deformation
band and upslope flow should yield developing snow showers
across the W Mtns, which will persist into Thursday. Precip
tapers off after 00Z with periods of light snow/sleet/rain or
patchy fzdz early Wed night before snow showers develop over the
western Alleghenies into Thursday morning.

We continue to undercut NBM temps Wednesday due to its warm
bias in cold air damming scenarios. Expect readings to creep up
to near 40F over the Lower Susq Valley by Wed evening, while the
northern mountains struggle to reach 32F.

A tight pressure gradient behind the exiting low should produce
gusty northwest winds across the region Thursday. Bufkit
soundings indicate gusts of 30-40kts are most likely. Light,
lake-enhanced orographic snow showers over the Alleghenies and
seasonably cold air appear likely Thursday as the upper trough
swings through.

[StretchCT]

Gfs seems more locked in with the precip

[JDClapper]

03z compare .. not bad for either, except they still seem to have the low a mb or 2 too deep.

[PA road DAWG]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Man, I wish I was this optimistic as CTP is for me. 7:30pm update. Still in a watch for 4-6", that starts in 6 hours. Fully expect Advisory any minute and this gets cut in half.

I was just going to tag you in a post.  What up with them?   Still under a watch and it’s starting in a few hours.  They’re slacking big time.   I don’t see warning level snows out of this.  I also expect my 3-6 advisory to be cut down maybe 1-3 tops 

[Lazman]

12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Someone was chatty at CTP. 10:21pm update.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak and transient high pressure over northern New England
should supply sufficiently cold air for precipitation to begin
as snow over almost all of central PA Wednesday morning.
However, a warm nose aloft will quickly work in, changing the
snow to mixed precipitation through the day. Portions of
southern PA and the lower Susquehanna Valley will likely
see some plain liquid rain by noon, with the transition to sleet
and rain progressing north through the afternoon.

After detailed discussion internally, external collaboration
with WPC and surrounding WFOs, and particularly the wisdom for
"Leveraging the uncertainty of ensemble guidance" - passed down
from our recently retired SOO (Science and Operations Officer),
we`ll continue to ride the Winter Storm Watch for at least one
more model cycle as the probability for 6 inches or more is less
than 40% (where it`s maximized) in most places surrounding
Interstate 80. 4-5 inches looks pretty solid in the current
Watch area, with similar or slightly lesser amounts being more
definitive outside of the Watch.

In either case, a few-several hour period of moderate to heavy
snowfall rates will likely lead to high impact for travel, but
we still need to draw the line somewhere when it comes to
actual amounts. Given our criteria of 6"/12 hour for a warning
and the aforementioned probs for that amount - Advisory Criteria
Amounts look more probable, but we don`t want to downplay the
"Impact", especially from the Central/NCent Mtns east across the
Middle and W Branch of the Susq Valley.

Strong synoptic support and anomalous moisture transport from
the GOMEX into retreating cold dome will produce an initial,
quick "2-3 hour dump" of snow with a high likelihood of 1+
inch/hr rates across the interior zones. The main uncertainty
lies with how long the heavy snow/rates will last as there will
be an inevitable transition to a wintry mix due to tremendous
WAA driving burgeoning warm nose aloft followed by 300-700mb
layer dry slot arriving from the OH Valley by late
afternoon/early evening.

Several deterministic pieces of guidance and GEFS indicate that
the max Tw aloft will stay just below zero through 18z for much
of the CWA east and north of a line from KELZ to KUNV and KSEG,
with the PTYPE snow between 11-13 and 18-19Z.

Model soundings indicate the changeover is likely by late
morning over the Laurel Highlands and reach the mountains north
of KIPT by around 22Z. An examination of model time sections
indicates the strongest lift will occur well beneath the DGZ, so
expect snow/liquid ratios not far from 10:1. Ensemble mean qpf
currently suggests a widespread 3-6 inch snowfall is likely
across much of the forecast area, with significantly less across
the Lower Susq Valley, where a change to rain is likely after a
relatively short period of snow. 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates
are possible for a time Thursday, given the plume of GOMEX
moisture and strong forcing associated with coupled jet
structure.

Expect breezy and drier conditions to arrive late Wed night, as
a trailing occluded front sweeps through. However, deformation
band and upslope flow should yield developing snow showers
across the W Mtns, which will persist into Thursday. Precip
tapers off after 00Z with periods of light snow/sleet/rain or
patchy fzdz early Wed night before snow showers develop over the
western Alleghenies into Thursday morning.

We continue to undercut NBM temps Wednesday due to its warm
bias in cold air damming scenarios. Expect readings to creep up
to near 40F over the Lower Susq Valley by Wed evening, while the
northern mountains struggle to reach 32F.

A tight pressure gradient behind the exiting low should produce
gusty northwest winds across the region Thursday. Bufkit
soundings indicate gusts of 30-40kts are most likely. Light,
lake-enhanced orographic snow showers over the Alleghenies and
seasonably cold air appear likely Thursday as the upper trough
swings through.

Der Bingle, who are usually ultra-conservative, never bit on the WSW and stayed the course with a WWA. Now their disco cuts totals back to 2 to 4 from previous 3 to 6. 

[Blizz]

Just now, Lazman said:

Der Bingle, who are usually ultra-conservative, never bit on the WSW and stayed the course with a WWA. Now their disco cuts totals back to 2 to 4 from previous 3 to 6. 

Prob a good call, I think Hazleton sees 3-4", local valleys 2-3"

[PA road DAWG]

Who’s having a house party for our first pure all snow event ?  Whenever that may be 

[Blizz]

1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Who’s having a house party for our first pure all snow event ?  Whenever that may be 

Man it feels like forever since NEPA has gotten a full on snowstorm with 12"+ widespread. Starting to feel it now...

Edited January 25, 2023 by Blizz

[JDClapper]

[Lazman]

Just now, Blizz said:

Prob a good call, I think Hazleton sees 3-4", local valleys 2-3"

I went with a Call of 2 to 4+ area wide around Hazleton, before seeing anything from Der Bingle.

[Lazman]

Just now, Blizz said:

Man it feels like forever where NEPA has gotten a full on snowstorm with 12"+ widespread. Starting to feel it now...

7 years ago this week, Jonas rocked us in the Anthracite region while 20+ miles away WB sat on the fringe with naddafinga. That was the BIG WIN for the Nambino, if you recall. 

[JDClapper]

NAMs a little light on the juice and a little slow maybe.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Good point here

And 

and good comments - I concur

Yea upper 30's with thunderstorms what a time!

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Man, I wish I was this optimistic as CTP is for me. 7:30pm update. Still in a watch for 4-6", that starts in 6 hours. Fully expect Advisory any minute and this gets cut in half.

Yea hence what I mentioned yesterday ill take my coating and run lol 

Would have love to have seen an inch but wasn't feeling optimistic and figured with our lack of any snow it would follow suit further north of me with a nice 1-3, 2-4 call. The optimistic side would have said 3-6" but that would have meant my area would see an inch of snow. We see how that is going.

[so_whats_happening]

Have an east wind in most locations from MD to about SE PA. Temps in the low 30's and dews 25-29. Not a good setup at all for cold to lock in with precip overriding it. If we had just been a bit colder we could have managed all snow even with the warm surge. Heavy wet snow for areas that do see accumulation. We get dryslotted like woah so we may miss some of the WAA push and thus we cutoff precip quick. Things to argue interior may stay snow for the majority of precip falling but ratios at horrible levels 10:1 even 8:1 a half inch of QPF yields 3-5" max in locations.

Really don't think we push past 40 today even with the warm push later this afternoon and evening. Especially if we continue the showery activity after the main push of precip. NAM coming ever so colder with the initial precip would definitely be something to see a burst of snow and then just have showery activity the remainder of the day. I could live with that instead of a deluge, coastal areas still progged to get the worst impacts of rain and wind. Will not be surprised if wind advisories get hoisted for areas of the mid atlantic as the storm exits thursday morning. Models are still showing a nice enhancement in 850mb level that could mix down 45-55 knot winds.

[so_whats_happening]

Just for added context here is the 6z nam. Temps profile suggests we hold the 850mb temps around -3 into PA/MD border as precip enters the picture. That is some thumping going on! 2 hours go by and we have precip lightening up a bit which allows the warmth to come in aloft and change to rain but precip is rather light after the initial push at lunchtime so showery weather and coolish surface with low cloud/ fog scenario likely until we get he cold front crossing just after midnight. Between the late afternoon light precip and the front crossing around midnight is the expected high for the day where we may not cross 40 here brrr.

Then we clear up a bit and mix out lower levels which again may introduce 25-30 mph winds sustained and gusts 40-45mph.

Here was the skew T for IAD at 00z would indicate that when precip does move in we probably won't have much in the way of dry air aloft. Above 850mb can moisten up rather quickly and seems to be doing just that with a lowering cloud deck currently around. Mind you was completely clear when I came in at 11pm.

[TLChip]

Current MRMS

08z HRRR