JDClapper Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Time to nitpick model's vs real-time yet? lol 21z What do you think, 18z NAM 12k and 3k maybe a touch too strong on the southern low... not too bad on the High in PA, and the low in the Dakotas. 3k might be slightly (I mean SLIGHTLY) too strong on the High, but that's being extra critical. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Ha, updated to 22z before my eyes. Still a little too strong on the southern low it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Ha, updated to 22z before my eyes. Still a little too strong on the southern low it seems. Buoy off Texas is under 1000mb https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=txpt2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Great trends over the last 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted January 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looking very promising after missing out on the last one. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bigtime EAR support for a monster ending the first week of February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Bigtime EAR support for a monster ending the first week of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Bigtime EAR support for a monster ending the first week of February Until I see a 300 + hr snowmap I wont believe it 😆😆 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 47 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Looks like a cutter. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: Looks like a cutter. Give it a few days 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 NAM3 sounding for my area. Pretty worried about power outages. That nearly isothermal later is 2 miles deep, wicked paste bomb. Just a refresher, or to help out any new folks, dendrites grow best at about -12°C to -18°, this range is known as the DGZ (dendritic growth zone), but they also like to grow just below 0° C. But air at just under 0° holds roughly twice the water content as the DGZ. Now, one wouldn't be getting great ratios (unless your surface temps are colder, like 28° I'd say,/) but it can really come down, and stick if there's any slim layer of above freezing air in there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, TLChip said: Give it a few days 🤣 Sure and it will go out to sea at the same time. Just kidding of course. Edited January 25, 2023 by Wtkidz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Looks like a cutter. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: NAM3 sounding for my area. Pretty worried about power outages. That nearly isothermal later is 2 miles deep, wicked paste bomb. Just a refresher, or to help out any new folks, dendrites grow best at about -12°C to -18°, this range is known as the DGZ (dendritic growth zone), but they also like to grow just below 0° C. But air at just under 0° holds roughly twice the water content as the DGZ. Now, one wouldn't be getting great ratios (unless your surface temps are colder, like 28° I'd say,/) but it can really come down, and stick if there's any slim layer of above freezing air in there. Oof. Generator time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 As others have noted, been a slow, steady decline on SREF here too....was 6"+ yesterday, now looking at more of maybe 2-3" event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Oof. Generator time... It's gassed up just in case. At least the inversion should mostly hold and keep the winds down. We did have enough sun and warmth to clear off a lot of trees. My area didn't get sticky snow with the last storm in but not far away, it was a pasty. This is from about 10 miles south of me this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 0z HRRR at hr 32. Nearly all rain for me. And a lot of it Another warm day Winds build offshore, but higher elevs and some near coast spots are in the 60's 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) Another step down with the SREF - some day when I'm cleaning files on the computer I'll wonder why I even clipped any of this stuff for an inch storm. CT news was hyping, but no one was in the grocery store (I needed coffee, broccoli and Magnum bars) Edited January 25, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro trend. Seriously, what's the ratio of storms that come further north/west to storms that fade out to sea at this point? Gotta be 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) Good point here And and good comments - I concur Edited January 25, 2023 by StretchCT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Euro trend. Seriously, what's the ratio of storms that come further north/west to storms that fade out to sea at this point? Gotta be 10:1 It's weird, every storm has trended colder for me. Now, part of that is the models do not resolve the CAD up here. I think what's happening is that models are phasing storms favorably in the long range, they start out further east and run more south to north, Thus giving the majority in the region a snowy solution. What happens though, is the phasing backs off as we get to reality, this now weaker, and flatter storm path now starts more northerly, and draws up the warmth. It also doesn't have that cold injection from the phase. The flatter trajectory gets it to the coast, but it really only helps Maine and northern NH. I'll try an illustration. The blue path is the long range, the red part is what ends up happening. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 More flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 Ahhh the good ole NAM Looking to see what happened 18z to 0z. Ohh look at that. NAM actually shifted south. Probably need to double check that Euro post I made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: More flooding The moon has an 18.6 year cycle, so there's basically one decade where the moon angle is higher in relation to the sun-earth plane, then one decade where the angle is lower. This lower angle increases the tides, this lower angle regime is the part of the cycle we entered recently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: The blue path is the long range, the red part is what ends up happening Yeah I see what you mean. I wish I kept track of these things rather than rely on memories that may not exist. BTW, the trend N/W sometimes helps me too, it's not always a shift to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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