January 25-26, 2023 | Winter Storm

[TLChip]

Whites looking to collect more white gold, pile it up wooo! Maybe my snowshoes will come out next week?

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, Rush said:

SREF mean has gone from 2" to .5" in the last 24 hours.  Thought I might finally get some accumulation.  Baltimore has never had a snowless winter.  At this point I kind of hope we do it!

Yeah, SREFs getting scared up here too. As for record breaki g, some may ha e heard this story, but in 2016 we were goi g for record least snow. Then some lame a** rando April 1.75" fell in the AM and melted within hours and ruined it. So not only did the winter suck, we didnt even have a record to show for it. Slap in the face. Lol

 

Go big or go home! Hoping you break that record! (I guess? Lol)

[MaineJay]

21 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Whites looking to collect more white gold, pile it up wooo! Maybe my snowshoes will come out next week?

I could see Mt Washington getting 3 feet, probably get blown away mostly though.

[Brodozer1]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Only took 3 years, but we got there! It doesn't even include the 14" that fell IMBY yesterday.

☃️

i am in central ct no way 3 inches we had 2 dustings 

[TLChip]

16 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I could see Mt Washington getting 3 feet, probably get blown away mostly though.

Yeah windpacked snow on top of the frozen slop from last week, I’m sure Avvy alerts will start popping up, lotta people going to be hanging out in Tucks. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by TLChip

[Wayuphere]

I think I better be using a roof rake today to easily remove the powdery snow before the white cement arrives.

[MaineJay]

Just now, Wayuphere said:

I think I better be using a roof rake today to easily remove the powdery snow before the white cement arrives.

i 

I had the same thought.

[MainelySnow]

44 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Whites looking to collect more white gold, pile it up wooo! Maybe my snowshoes will come out next week?

I'm rooting for you! Nothing beats snowshoeing in the woods after a nice snowfall!

[StretchCT]

NAM3k temp for NYC is the coldest reading in the region. Weird.

[Wayuphere]

Excessive front end dump, then the mixture, then temp drop will lock everything in place.

[MainelySnow]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

I had the same thought.

This is one of those times that I'm glad we have trusses and not rafters

[StretchCT]

 

[MaineJay]

The WAA should move in quicker that modeled, as it's often the case.  So wouldn't be shocked to see some early "snow surprise" at first, only to switch over faster. Nature of the beast.

[TLChip]

5 minutes ago, MainelySnow said:

I'm rooting for you! Nothing beats snowshoeing in the woods after a nice snowfall!

Love the sound of walking on any snow, spikes, crampons or snowshoes 🤣

[JDClapper]

12z hrrr and nams liking central PA and northern tier so far. But ultimately, it just depends on where the best forcing/banding sets up, and we wont know where that is until it's practically happening.

[MaineJay]

OHV/Midwest had like 800 pages on this in threat, we got 6.

NAM3km so close to pinching off those 850s for northern NE.

 

[TheComet]

24 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

12z hrrr and nams liking central PA and northern tier so far. But ultimately, it just depends on where the best forcing/banding sets up, and we wont know where that is until it's practically happening.

I hope most if not all of the precip falls before the changeover, so as to minimize the liquid. One thing I know for sure, I'll be glued to the radar to clear the snow with my snowblower before the rain/ice falls on it, else it will be much harder.

[TLChip]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

OHV/Midwest had like 800 pages on this in threat, we got 6.

NAM3km so close to pinching off those 850s for northern NE.

 

Don’t think it would be quite so bad if the Atlantic wasn’t 2-4 above average. I guess it would promote more QPF though. 

[tool483]

8 minutes ago, TheComet said:

I hope most if not all of the precip falls before the changeover, so as to minimize the liquid. One thing I know for sure, I'll be glued to the radar to clear the snow with my snowblower before the rain/ice falls on it, else it will be much harder.

exactly, timing that out is going to be crucial. I'm afraid I'm going to be at work when the change happens 🤔 This is going to be some slop, there is no doubt about that. Maybe MJ can stay all snow? SNE has no chance of not switching. . Hopefully we get dry slotted before we really warm up.

[JDClapper]

Not sure if the globals are gonna be of much use this close, with the dynamics of the thump and such. FWTW, The digital snow outputs from GFS/CMC are fairky zzz and in GFSs case, weird. Lol (see NY/PA border)

[TLChip]

I like the 12z NAM (might bust with some of those numbers) i don’t think much accumulating snow would be any farther south. I think we see more sleet/ice around locations that CAD. 850s torching fast.

NAM clownmap

NAM 850 temps

Edited January 24, 2023 by TLChip

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

OHV/Midwest had like 800 pages on this in threat, we got 6

 

It is possible you and @Mainiac make up the entirety of those living in Maine who care about predicting snow in Maine...

[StretchCT]

I think this is the first forecast of over an inch of snow for me since December.  They do put the wind gusts in there too.  

Edited January 24, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Good stuff in the writeup

For Wednesday night the SE wind off the ocean increases. An
impressive LLJ moves up along the coast from the south. The ECMWF
and NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness tables show impressive
advection of higher theta-e values up along the coastal plain and
offshore into Wednesday night. The 925 and 850 mb humidity and PW
values run about 3 SD above normal. Also Integrated Water Vapor
Transport values on the ECMWF and NAEFS Ensembles indicate about 4
SD above normal. This indicates and impressive surge of lower
latitude air into the region with high moisture values. With some
elevated instability have included a slight chance of thunder for S
and SE sections for a portion of Wednesday night. With the 925 LLJ
running at 50 to 65 kts, with the main axis shift just offshore. The
advection at 925 and 850 comes right out of the LLJ which indicates
the potential for heavy rain for at least a few hours. QPF amounts
are on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with lesser values NW and higher
values across eastern most sections, closer to the axis of higher
moisture transport. For now have held off on Wind Advisories, but
these may need to get hoisted at some point, especially further east
across the area as the surge of warmer air should allow for stronger
winds aloft to mix down. The potential exists for gusts of 40 to 45
mph along the coast. There should be a window of time for this to
occur Wednesday night as the area does eventually get into the warm
sector late at night as the storm lifts well west of the area. Any
secondary development along the warm front or triple point looks to
happen late and over Eastern New England and the Gulf of Maine very
late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning. There is excellent
agreement among the guidance with respect to this storm being a
quick mover and progressive. Thus the mid levels look to dry out
quickly as the rain should taper before daybreak Thursday.

[telejunkie]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

 

color me skeptical for mby....as MJ alluded to and what happened on Thursday evening, WAA is almost faster cutting through mid-layers than modeled, at least in these parts. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't like an inch or two before sleet starts pinging here. Been known to be wrong before though....