January 25-26, 2023 | Winter Storm

[JDClapper]

48 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Haha yea.  That’s a very aggressive front end thump 

Did u catch WNEPs fist call map? Holy smoke. Uncharacteristally bullish. 5-8 northern tier and back my way. 2-5 for you and south

Edited January 24, 2023 by JDClapper

[PA road DAWG]

8 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Did u catch WNEPs fist call map? Holy smoke. Uncharacteristally bullish. 5-8 northern tier and back my way. 2-5 for you and south

Yea I saw that.  I was surprised.  They’re usually very conservative 

[JDClapper]

21z SREF.. top

Compare to 15z bottom

[so_whats_happening]

Yea at this point ill take a solid coating. Anymore will be bonus in my book. Highest I see us achieving if things go perfect is 1-3". Solid 3-6" for interior with that scenario otherwise for now 2-4" is a good call for interior. It really depends on how quickly the cold gets eroded. We have quite the disparity in low level temps within the models as well as how quickly fleeting the cold is aloft. I would favor a slower retreat of cold but still being eroded in most locations of PA and into coastal SNE. Inland will have its battle and elevation may have a better chance at all snow. 

This is quite a thumpy scenario.  Really looking like a scenario along 95 and east gets the blast of warmth and just NW is cool but just warm enough aloft that it is a cold rain on top of whatever falls. Ill see if I can make a quick map later on.

Edited January 24, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

I have some connections and I was able to get a preview of the 18z EURO...😂

I saw this and had no context for a second...

 

I should ban you 🤣

[so_whats_happening]

Would also like to mention the winds may actually pack a little bit of a punch with this system. The warm sector if we can mix out could offer up some nice gusts as winds at 850mb are around 50-60 knots. Would expect coastal locations and just inland from there to experience those impacts. After we get the thump/ rainy precip we have another little jet trying to kick up in the Mid Atlantic on the backside of the front and areas around VA to SE PA may get in on some really nice downsloping winds. NAM shows another 40-50 knot wind region that actually could mix out as we are behind the cold front and most locations should start to clear out.

These are the 850mb winds to give an idea of the impact of the winds. 10m winds on models never really pans out the best but would expect 25-35 mph winds behind the front with gusts to 45mph in locations of the Mid Atlantic and ahead of it 20-30mph especially as you get to the coast with some gusts upwards of 50-55mph.

[StretchCT]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Would also like to mention the winds may actually pack a little bit of a punch with this system. The warm sector if we can mix out could offer up some nice gusts as winds at 850mb are around 50-60 knots. Would expect coastal locations and just inland from there to experience those impacts. After we get the thump/ rainy precip we have another little jet trying to kick up in the Mid Atlantic on the backside of the front and areas around VA to SE PA may get in on some really nice downsloping winds. NAM shows another 40-50 knot wind region that actually could mix out as we are behind the cold front and most locations should start to clear out.

These are the 850mb winds to give an idea of the impact of the winds. 10m winds on models never really pans out the best but would expect 25-35 mph winds behind the front with gusts to 45mph in locations of the Mid Atlantic and ahead of it 20-30mph especially as you get to the coast with some gusts upwards of 50-55mph.

I know right, weird for a storm that's not that strong.

 

[StretchCT]

I don't have a 24 hr snow map, and the 12z and prior runs all have today's snow on it so it's hard to trend it. But this is the 18z 

[StretchCT]

Accupro had it. No major shift.  NYC still right on the edge of an accumulation

[StretchCT]

NAM is missing NYC completely.  I'm going repeat myself a lot in the coming days, but if this misses NYC for 0.1" accum, then NYC likely sets a record for latest snowfall and the longest snow drought is within sight as that takes us to 2/4 for no snow. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I know right, weird for a storm that's not that strong.

 

It has a pretty decent jet it taps into aloft especially as it nears the lakes so I would not be surprised at some decent winds. We are more so use to seeing it over the ocean where we don't have as many obs other than OPC mapping for forecasts.

 

[StretchCT]

NAM 3k juicing it up a bit.

[StretchCT]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It has a pretty decent jet it taps into aloft especially as it nears the lakes so I would not be surprised at some decent winds. We are more so use to seeing it over the ocean where we don't have as many obs other than OPC mapping for forecasts.

NAM gusts - does seem the most extreme for the coast.  They all have 70+ over the water.

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

NAM gusts - does seem the most extreme for the coast.  They all have 70+ over the water.

Yea wind outlooks on models are rough. That at least gives you a clue as to where things could mix out. Higher terrain and coastal regions. It also gives you a clue as to where the CAD situation holds. Ill have to check out and see from about hr32 or 36 to h47 via that website what it looks like. I would be rather impressed to see winds of 40-50mph across northern PA and S NY out ahead of the system. There does seem to be a funky looking 850 wind map where there is some enhancement over that region and model suggests strong mixing seeing those 10m winds.

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Did u catch WNEPs fist call map? Holy smoke. Uncharacteristally bullish. 5-8 northern tier and back my way. 2-5 for you and south

@PA road DAWG that map lasted like 4 hours. Heres the update haha

[PA road DAWG]

6 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

@PA road DAWG that map lasted like 4 hours. Heres the update haha

lol when it rains it pours.  This is a downright awful winter.  Who knows, we might thread the needle on a good pure snow event, but the pattern for the foreseeable future is abysmal   

Edited January 24, 2023 by PA road DAWG

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

lol when it rains it pours.  This is a downright awful winter.  Who knows, we might thread the needle on a good pure snow event, but the pattern is abysmal   

Woops, updated again. Stay tuned for the n... oop, another.

[PA road DAWG]

If a La Niña winter could be summed up in one photo this could be it.  
 

season date snowfall 

[StretchCT]

Gfs less than enthused. Trend. Philly might cash in 🤭

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

NAM is missing NYC completely.  I'm going repeat myself a lot in the coming days, but if this misses NYC for 0.1" accum, then NYC likely sets a record for latest snowfall and the longest snow drought is within sight as that takes us to 2/4 for no snow. 

I am leaning 60/40 towards NYC breaking the record. The only reason I am giving NYC that much of a chance is because 0.1" would be measurable and I can not definitively rule that out. 

Given the lack of true cold air, the boundary layer already hovering above freezing and h925/85s being marginal at best, it will be rather easy for the warm waters to overwhelm LI and NYC. 

 

[MaineJay]

Winter storm warning was barely dropped before a watch issued. Angling for a third WSW in 6 days.  Though this might be a bit sloppy.

Doesn't seem like we'll be wanting for moisture.

Disco.

Quote

Wednesday will see surface high pressure slide offshore to the
west with mostly sunny skies early in the day. Upstream... low
pressure will be deepening over the Ohio River Valley, tracking
toward the Lower Great Lakes region. While this storm will be
handled in the long term portion of this discussion below,
cirrus associated with the storm will thicken and lower through
the day as the system approaches. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool with highs in the 20s to low 30s... with the
first bit of snow arriving to southern New Hampshire during the
afternoon. Depending on how quickly we saturate the column and
how strong warm frontal forcing is, there could be some evening
commute impacts due to snowfall. The Winter Storm Watch thus
starts 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday.
Snow is expected to spread from southwest to northeast during
the late afternoon and evening hours, reaching southwestern New
Hampshire first. Snow is expected to quickly pick up in
intensity, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
possible during the evening across southern areas, and overnight
hours across northern areas. Low pressure is expected to
develop off Long Island and likely move near the coastline of
Maine. With this track, warmer air is expected to progress
northward, likely nearing southern New Hampshire by midnight.
The warmer air will progress aloft first, leading to a period of
sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation will likely change to
rain shortly after midnight across southern and coastal areas
with warmer maritime air intruding at the surface. This warmer
air is expected to progress inland to about the Lakes region of
New Hampshire and Maine by the daylight hours on Thursday, with
a period of sleet and freezing rain preceding the plain rain.
Even far northern areas will likely mix with sleet and some
freezing rain as the warmer air moves in aloft, but these areas
will likely hold on to snow through most of the event.

Although southern areas see a change to rain, enough snowfall
is possible with this event to warrant issuing a winter storm
watch for most of the area. The initial heavy thump of snow in
the first four to six hours of the event has the potential to
put down greater than 6 inches of snow. Travel conditions are
expected to quickly deteriorate during the late afternoon and
evening, with mixed precip leading to more slick travel on any
packed snow or untreated surfaces later in the night. Northern
areas stand the best chance to see the highest snow totals, with
the higher terrain possibly seeing over a foot of snow.

Periods of snow likely continue into the afternoon hours on
Thursday across northern areas, while showery activity is
expected elsewhere during the daytime. Colder air returns
Thursday night and freezes any remaining slush and water across
the area. Temperatures steadily drop to the teens and single
digits through the overnight.

The pattern remains unsettled from late week into early next
week in a cyclonic flow regime across the Northeast. Multiple
weak disturbances bring a chance of precip to northern New
England about every 36 to 48 hours, with northern areas standing
the best chance of seeing the clouds and snow showers. While no
larger systems currently look to be on the horizon after
Tomorrow night`s system, several weaker systems stand the chance
to bring some disturbed weather, especially to northern areas.

 

[bigben89]

5 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

I am leaning 60/40 towards NYC breaking the record. The only reason I am giving NYC that much of a chance is because 0.1" would be measurable and I can not definitively rule that out. 

Given the lack of true cold air, the boundary layer already hovering above freezing and h925/85s being marginal at best, it will be rather easy for the warm waters to overwhelm LI and NYC. 

 

So darn close, might as well break the record this year!

[MaineJay]

I thought there was a Norm Macdonald! rule thing, it exits the same latitude it enters. So if it enters though the US/MEX border, JAX exit. 🤔🤣

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

If a La Niña winter could be summed up in one photo this could be it.  
 

season date snowfall 

Only took 3 years, but we got there! It doesn't even include the 14" that fell IMBY yesterday.

☃️

[Rush]

SREF mean has gone from 2" to .5" in the last 24 hours.  Thought I might finally get some accumulation.  Baltimore has never had a snowless winter.  At this point I kind of hope we do it!