January 25-26, 2023 | Winter Storm

[Pghsnow]

[HVSNOWSTORM]

18z gefs mean snow. Pretty good.

[PA road DAWG]

32 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

18z gefs mean snow. Pretty good.

we shall see.  But looks good verbatim the 18z Run 

[clm]

 

[MaineJay]

For being 5 days out, there's really minimal spatiotemporal differences with this in the GEFS. I guess one could be concerned that it's under dispersed, and not encapsulating the range of potential.

 

[NEPAsnow]

definitely more front end thump this run, also to my eyes the cold air is further south

 

 

 

 

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

For being 5 days out, there's really minimal spatiotemporal differences with this in the GEFS. I guess one could be concerned that it's under dispersed, and not encapsulating the range of potential.

 

Seems like that's been an issue with the GEFS for some time.  Like what tweaks are made for each member?  Apparently not enough.  This looks like a 48ish hour forecast.

[MaineJay]

A number of GEFS members might have a number of us hoping for a front end thump, then dry slot to coincide with excessive warming.

 

[bigben89]

Trend not looking good at least for SWPA

[JDClapper]

Some 12z round up. Front end thump and changeover for nearly everyone, is still the current general theme. 

[JDClapper]

Look at those beautiful blues.

[MaineJay]

GEFS

[Penn State]

It’s sad that even when something’s within 100 hours… I’m still skeptical. However, this would be nice mid-week production for my region of SCPA, and many others. 

[Penn State]

One question with this one.. what’s preventing this from transferring to the coast? The low tracks into the Ohio Valley, weakens, then strengthens. Wouldn’t the coast be a natural transfer point?

[MaineJay]

4 hours ago, Penn State said:

One question with this one.. what’s preventing this from transferring to the coast? The low tracks into the Ohio Valley, weakens, then strengthens. Wouldn’t the coast be a natural transfer point?

I think the mid level trof is just not close enough to the ocean.  You want to see it elongate towards the coast, and then the circulation at the coast can take over.  It happens, just too late for almost everyone.

  You can see some sagging in the isopleths in northern VA and down into the Carolinas, but it's just not far enough east.  Now, the GFS has been to rest to phase in it's latest upgrade cycle, so a backing off from phasing in subsequent runs would likely help.

[StretchCT]

Euro with the classic front end "dump" 

[StretchCT]

This one has 70+ winds just offshore and clipping LI, RI and SEMA.  Not something I expected from the surface map.  A 995 low over the lakes.

 

[Brodozer1]

Still not expecting much from this time will tell

[JDClapper]

Dead thread.  Couple reasons I think... focus on current system, not I95 (again) and mostly it just seems like all the storms this season are nowcast, so maybe feeling like why waste time before and just show up the day of.  haha 

Hoping to eek out a couple inches before the changeover.

[Penn State]

17 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Dead thread.  Couple reasons I think... focus on current system, not I95 (again) and mostly it just seems like all the storms this season are nowcast, so maybe feeling like why waste time before and just show up the day of.  haha 

Hoping to eek out a couple inches before the changeover.

It has been slow.. I know I’ve been particularly busy this weekend. Birthday parties, tax prep, etc. I’m also just not that excited about these threats. It would be nice to have a pure snow event, without mixing. Not a question of snow or rain, just how much snow.

[Jon Snow]

4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Dead thread.  Couple reasons I think... focus on current system, not I95 (again) and mostly it just seems like all the storms this season are nowcast, so maybe feeling like why waste time before and just show up the day of.  haha 

Hoping to eek out a couple inches before the changeover.

So far this winter every system has been the same for where I am, 35 degrees and rain.  Looks like that is not changing anytime soon.  I have been checking in periodically, but there is not even a lot to be jealous of other places for this winter.

[so_whats_happening]

So the only possibility I see in somehow in some way shape or form having a decent snow in areas of SC PA, other than the typical CAD spots is if this system gets going early further SW and essentially tries to occlude over the TN river valley. This would shunt the WAA further east instead of driving it up the eastern side of the Apps like we see with the NAM, GFS, and likely Euro. This would still allow the main upper level low to still traverse the area to the NW but focus most of the WAA with a coastal like setup.

I feel im grabbing at straws here on the type of potential but hey when it has been like this around here you gotta see if you can find  a way. lol

We are still relatively long range for NAM and surely for FV3 so may be something to watch but the reason we have the main low going so far west of the region without any coastal support on the GFS and Euro is the lack of a closed ULL to negate the WAA from pushing in nearly as much and more phasing with the energy dropping in the back end of the trough. Just a couple of examples before I leave from work for the evening.

Included CMC, GFS, FV3, and NAM ( 12z, 18z, and last 2 are newest 00z runs)

You can see how the FV3 kicked negative at the same hour as the other models and still phases the energy a bit versus CMC which is essentially an open wave. Like I said we are still rather far out in time for the short range models but something to watch and see if they hold or just completely fold on the idea.

Quote

 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Colder air arrives on northwesterly flow Tuesday night, with
temperatures dropping into the teens and single digits across
the area. Seasonable conditions are expected on Wednesday as
high pressure passes north of New England, with increasing
clouds late in the day across southern areas arriving ahead the
next approaching storm system.

Low pressure develops along the Texas coast on Tuesday and
moves into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. By Wednesday
night snow is expected to overspread the area from southwest to
northeast during the evening hours. Snow becomes moderate to
heavy at times, with at least light to moderate accumulations
expected in all areas.

High pressure to the north continues to supply colder air
through the lower levels of the atmosphere through most of the
storm. The original low pressure center likely weakens across
the eastern Great Lakes as a new coastal low deepens late
Wednesday night and Thursday. During this time period, warmer
air likely intrudes through the lower levels along the
coastline, but interior areas will likely only see the warmer
air move in aloft. Based on the system`s track and warm origin
in the Gulf of Mexico, it`s likely to bring an area of above
freezing air aloft. Areas of sleet and freezing rain are likely
across interior portions of the forecast area, but this forecast
package remains with rain/snow wording until the details of the
system can be better ironed out. Precip intensity gradually
wanes through the early to mid morning hours, with some shower
activity continue in the afternoon. Upslope snow showers
continue behind the system well into Thursday night.

The global models and their ensemble suites have trended cooler
with this system over the last couple of runs. This trend has
also been observed with the previous two systems. This has
primarily been the result of a storm system that is less
amplified than most models have had from two to fours days out.
With these observations in mind, this forecast trended toward
the cooler solution without going all in yet. There is likely
still room in upcoming forecasts to go cooler should the trend
amongst the guidance continue, as well as fine tuning of any
areas of sleet and freezing rain.

 

[MaineJay]

EPS must have some nice front end thumpers for CPA and even SWPA.

 

[Wtkidz]

Very little if any chance of snow my way. 
 

Quote

A large area of low pressure will move from the western OH River Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Precip is forecast to move in west of the Blue Ridge during the second half of Tuesday night. Model and ensemble guidance continues to keep cold air in place along/west of the Blue Ridge, with a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow possible. The favored climo areas in the Potomac Highlands might be cold enough for all snow, at least for the first part of the event. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch are possible along the ridges, and snow totals of a few inches are possible in the Potomac Highlands. If these trends continue, Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for some areas later today, with an outside (low) chance for warning-level snow. To the east of the Blue Ridge, timing of precip onset and antecedent temperatures are going to play a huge role in p-type. There is a chance snow mixes in along/just east of US-15, as well as parts of north-central and northeast MD. Temperatures should rise above freezing east of the Blue Ridge by late morning and precip transitions to all rain. In the higher elevation west of the Blue Ridge, freezing rain and snow continue into the evening. Afternoon temps range from the 30s to mid 40s.

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Wtkidz