HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Euro trend Okay so maybe the 12z euro moves the snow SE just like a hair from 6z but basically the same. Another tick or 2 SE would make HV peeps into CT happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: 12z nam coming in more amped than 6z. Willl likely result in a warmer and further NW snow line Nope it's better for us on the fringe in SENY into CT. Small ticks SE with snow for 12z runs. Not NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Ukie marginally colder than previous run. #babysteps Tick...tickticktick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 Burlington's disco Quote The extended forecast remains relatively unchanged with potential for accumulating snow Sunday night through Monday. Character of precipitation will be mainly snow with cold air holding over the North Country. No downstream blocking will keep the pattern progressive, so blockbuster amounts are not expected. Still, overall pattern is favorable for snow accumulations especially for southern and eastern Vermont. Deterministic models continue to agree on the general message above, but vary slightly with low intensity, amount of moisture wrapping back over Vermont/northern New York, and track. GFS/Canadian remain most robust with stronger low circulation along New England coast and ample moisture advection. NAM/EC favor a slightly flatter trajectory and weaker low. Ensembles are more towards the middle, but slightly more towards the GFS/Canadian solutions. Initial estimates of snowfall are ranging widely with values between 3 and 6 inches relatively equally possible for lower valleys of southern and eastern Vermont, between 3 and 8 inches for higher terrain of the Green Mountains, between 0.5 and 3 inches across northern New York, and between 1 and 4 inches for the northern Champlain Valley. This isn`t a forecast for expected amounts, but to show the continued variability in solutions due to fast system movement and varying storm dynamics from model to model and run to run. Forecast error bounds are towards the higher end of the ranges for higher terrain, southern, and eastern Vermont lending some confidence in at least moderate snowfall totals for these locations. The highest model variability remains towards the northern Champlain Valley and northern New York; will be watching model trends closely over the next couple of runs. Temperatures will be running around to slightly above seasonal averages through Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 Albany just hoisted a couple Winter Storm Watches for a few counties in eastern NY, southern VT, and western MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z and past 7 suites. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 That ridge hasn’t moved more than 50 miles on those suites. Look at the 573 rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Probabilities of 1", 2" and 4" through 7am Monday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 There's actually some fresh data in the 18z runs, from key locations too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 At 39, NAM looks like it might take another positive baby step. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 H8 vort trend. It's reaching for the coast, not quite there, but getting that 850mb circulation further east helps just about everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 NAM trying to deepen this fairly rapidly once it gets to the coast. 11mb in 9 hours is respectable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 23mb in 18 hours before it heads into the maritimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Yeah, 18z is pretty nice so far. Just another ~36-48 hours until we get this show on the road. 3k NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) NAM is much better for southern fringe areas, actually keeps i84 all frozen now and NW NJ & much of CT does much better. Snow to ice( prob a mix)to snow. Very nice, keep trebding ... 12z vs 18z Edited January 20, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, 18z is pretty nice so far. Just another ~36-48 hours until we get this show on the road. 3k NAM That R/S line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, 18z is pretty nice so far. Just another ~36-48 hours until we get this show on the road. 3k NAM Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, MaineJay said: That R/S line. I have high confidence Maine will be alright. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Dang, 18z seeing something. Or, a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: Dang, 18z seeing something. Or, a hiccup. So far it's only the NAM coming more south with the snow but rest of 18z hasn't come out yet. Not sure exactly how it's affected you BY but gfs is next up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Gfs looks better too NAM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z vs 12z Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 18z vs 12z Gfs Definitely a nice sizeable shift south and east with the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: 12z and past 7 suites. JD, I see these modeled storm tracks you posted and I go “wow, this looks like a favorable storm track to bring snow to my area (Hagerstown, MD),” but then I look at NWS forecast and little to no accumulating snow is expected. As a novice here, I’m guessing it’s the lack of cold air? We are missing the placement and strength of a cold high pressure in Canada needed for snow in my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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