Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Lol, this is a classic example of someone thinking they are making a "hot take". Wednesday 0z runs. GFS Today's 6z EC Wednesday 0z Today's 6z Now is the ECMWF perfect? No, but claiming the GFS has "won", 3 days before the event is a bit premature. Just my humble opinion. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Not expecting a large snow event. But changes from current depictions? 100% Will GFS be the victor? don't know Haven't had a fun front loaded thumper in awhile either, so maybe a surprise for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Now is the ECMWF perfect? No, but claiming the GFS has "won", 3 days before the event is a bit premature. Just my humble opinion. Need clicks brah Have to make bold statements One thing that's nuts is each run looks a like a good snowstorm is coming from south and I expect a phase and a little boom but nopity nope Edited January 20, 2023 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 That's why we call it the long range NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, MaineJay said: No, but claiming the GFS has "won", GFS has moved the bulk of the moisture from Western NY and the St. Lawrence to NYC and SE. Euro has too to some extent So we can establish that over time, the models have shifted southeast with the precip. So which one was furthest southeast on the furthest back run on pivotal? Neither. It was the Canadian. But the GFS was furthest NW, so it is not the winner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Holy crap! 12z nam hot off the press 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: Holy crap! 12z nam hot off the press The track might actually be pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) 12z nam coming in more amped than 6z. Willl likely result in a warmer and further NW snow line Edited January 20, 2023 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: 12z nam coming in more amped than 6z. Willl likely result in a warmer and further NW snow line 10 miles difference back this way.. little more in NY/Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 GYX Quote LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Guidance has indeed trended colder for Saturday night with high pressure settling overhead giving us very good radiational cooling conditions, which will be further enhanced by the fresh snow on the ground. Lows are expected to be in the single digits to teens, although some northern valleys may dip below zero. Have incorporated some of the cooler MAV guidance in forecast temps, and I suspect temperatures will further be lowered in future forecasts. Cloud cover will then increase through the day on Sunday ahead of the coastal storm that is set to move across the region Sunday night into Monday with flow becoming more southerly, allowing temperatures to recover nicely after the cold start. Lower to mid 30s are expected for highs across southern areas while northern areas will probably remain in the 20s. The previously mentioned coastal storm remains on track to move across the region Sunday night and Monday with an eastward trend in yesterday`s 18Z and current 00Z guidance envelope with taking the deepening low pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Even though there still could be fluctuations in the track of the low, the latest guidance does result in better potential for accumulating snow and overall precip type as mostly snow, although there is still some uncertainty along the coast. Precipitation is expected to overspread the region Sunday evening and Sunday night. Impacts to the Monday AM commute are certainly possible as precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, is expected to be ongoing through the morning. Precip then should wind down from from west to east Monday afternoon and evening as the deepening low pressure quickly lifts into the Canadian Maritimes, and strong northwest flow on its backside brings a much drier airmass across the area. Winds are also a concern during this timeframe (gusts to 40-45 mph or so based on forecast soundings mixing these winds down) before gradually diminishing overnight Monday as the pressure gradient loosens. It`s possible that we could see some power outages as a result of these strong winds. We could still see some coastal flooding with this system as we will be in the highest astronomical tides of the month (see coastal flood section below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 10 miles difference back this way.. little more in NY/Ma Good 75+ mile shift NW compared to 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Let’s see how the rest of the 12z suite plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 59 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol, this is a classic example of someone thinking they are making a "hot take". Wednesday 0z runs. GFS Today's 6z EC Wednesday 0z Today's 6z Now is the ECMWF perfect? No, but claiming the GFS has "won", 3 days before the event is a bit premature. Just my humble opinion. Cases of premature conjecture have exploded as the use of social media has increased since the internet's creation. At this time, there seems no cure for this epidemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 SREF H8 temps with spread. Low centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 9z SREF individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 As far as that earlier post about what can happen to change the result... here is an example using the 0z and 12z NAM. Notice that piece of energy over PA in the 0z run that pops back to OH on the 12z run. That piece pulling back allows the ridge to impose more, raising the heights ahead of the storm and making it trend west. Its really its own shortwave that gets phased into the overall trough, so it should also strengthen it as well. Also the ridge behind is more neutral. Not sure if that's from the eastern or western system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 RGEM has shown a little bit of skill this winter, looking from my house. Last 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 GooFuS nudged right of previous track. Looks like a paste bomb up here though with boundary temps marginal. We've lost power enough this winter, genny still gassed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 Ukie marginally colder than previous run. #babysteps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS still trending SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS going to be OTS soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: The track might actually be pretty close. Was that a thread-the-needle scenario too? Notice how that H moves out of the way so quickly as the storm is coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 Euro trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 All 12z models improved front end snow vs there 6z runs for the i84 corridor with maybe the exception of the euro. Ticking the snow extent SE so that's good for us HV people. And anyone on the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I should also add that the NAM has a few more inches Monday during the day after that map for the HV into SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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