Pghsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 19, 2023 Time to start thinking about trends and what could be causing them. Typically we see storms fade northwest rather than get pushed south. There's multiple reasons for this: stronger ridging in the Atlantic, stronger storm pumps the ridge (stronger storms head west, right?), timing on the backside amplifies the trough more (making it more vertical) allowing the storm to come further west. What else? To surpress it, we'd need what? Stronger high building in, a low coming in to block it, confluence zone shifting south, missed phases where a northern steam is too far ahead and doesn't bring the southern shortwave up... what else? It could stay weak and head east, or stay disorganized. Anything else? Anyone see any reason the Euro is progressing south while CMC is heading north? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z Euro is slightly colder and still going thru 90... 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 I forgot how slow the NAM runs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 If I go to bed now and wake up in the morning, will the 0z NAM have loaded by then? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: If I go to bed now and wake up in the morning, will the 0z NAM have loaded by then? Could they nam and gfs be in more separate worlds right now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, MDBlueridge said: Could they nam and gfs be in more separate worlds right now? Looking at this radar I think I'm in a different month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 20, 2023 Wow that NAM run was worth the wait!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Could they nam and gfs be in more separate worlds right now? Ha, from worrying about rain mix/changeover, to being too far NW for anything to write home about. 😃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 Quite a bit of variability in the SREFs 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z ICON is pretty much a non-event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z RGEM more impactful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z so far. Compare to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Sterling’s says some flakes way west of me and mentions the same on the next storm on Wednesday. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A dry Saturday as high pressure builds overhead. Skies are forecast to clear through the day, though highs only reach the low to mid 40s. A strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday, with a surface low developing over the Deep South and lifting northeast into our area. Models are in generally good agreement, tracking the surface low across the NC Piedmont toward the VA Tidewater and Delmarva, before lifting northeast toward LI/southern New England Monday morning. Precipitation begins as rain across the entire area, starting first in the south/southwest CWA Sunday morning, and spreading into northeast MD by the afternoon. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is possible along/west of the Blue Ridge, with p-type highly dependent on elevation. The area most likely to see any accumulating snow is in western MD/eastern WV panhandle where cold air at the surface could hang on long enough to allow a transition to snow. There`s still uncertainty in the forecast, stay tuned for additional updates. The rain/clouds will keep highs only in the 30s to low 40s on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any rain or snow shower activity will quickly come to an end Monday morning as low pressure exits north and east. The exception to this would be along and west of the Allegheny Front where upslope snow showers look to linger into Monday afternoon/evening as the resultant upper level troughswings east of the region. Weak ridging and broad high pressure build briefly into the region Monday afternoon and Tuesday. This will lead to dry and seasonable conditions with a much more potent system setting up for midweek. By Wednesday, a deepeningneutral to negatively tilted trough and front will impact the region. Once again it will be a split of wintry precipitation for areas west of the Blue Ridge with rain further east. The 00z GFS continues to remain as an all rain event with low pressure cutting up through the Ohio River Valley. The 00Z ECMWF and 00z GEM continue to show a low pressure system tracking up through central Appalachians leading to wintry precipitation at the onset before a change to rain in areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. For now, went with a blend of deterministic guidance to central guidance reflecting the highest confidence for any wintry precipitation west of the Blue Ridge. Unfortunately, for snow lovers out there it looks to be another miss outside the mountains. Quote PREV 1 2 3 4 Page 4 of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z and past 6 suites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 6z euro shifted nw. Been the Theme all year folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 53 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: 6z euro shifted nw. Been the Theme all year folks Funny, because most have trended SE from my perspective. Even the rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, MaineJay said: Funny, because most have trended SE from my perspective. Even the rain storms. Eps also shifted slightly NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 20, 2023 6z not available as of my posting. But the EPS has been pretty consistent the last 12 runs. I still want to see what the effect (of any) of the fresh snow has on the 12z and especially 0z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Keeping an eye on next weeks, but that’s also a thread the needle type. We shall see. Looks to favor well interior again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, MaineJay said: 6z not available. But the EPS has been pretty consistent the last 12 runs. I still want to see what the effect (of any) of the fresh snow has on the 12z and especially 0z runs today. Slight shift NW, but nothing to lose sleep over. Shift mainly up near New England coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Funny, because most have trended SE from my perspective. Even the rain storms. Almost every event has pushed SE this season. Now, they've mostly been rain down this way even at our elevations. But so often the heaviest precip was targeted here and pushed E. Additionally the GFS has been the western outlier/phaser more often than not which is odd Edited January 20, 2023 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Almost every event has pushed SE this season. Now, they've mostly been rain down this way even at our elevations. But so often the heaviest precip was targeted here and pushed E. Additionally the GFS has been the western outlier/phaser more often than not which is odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Almost every event has pushed SE this season. Now, they've mostly been rain down this way even at our elevations. But so often the heaviest precip was targeted here and pushed E. Both of the "larger" snow event here this season have not done what was expected 24-48 hrs out. Ee had the big sleetfest, which many had progged for 4-7" (was under 3) and then the next one which many though 1 or 2" (was just under 4").. so, what way is this one going? 0-7" 🤷♂️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Another nowcast event, pattern has been warm and rainy in the mid Atlantic even up towards CPA and upper NEPA. Don’t expect this to change with any low pressure in Ohio, ushers the warmth up. Hoping to see my first measurable snow this year still… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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