January 22-23, 2023 | Winter Storm

[PA road DAWG]

2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Unfortunately there is no cold to force this, nor is the PNA in a good position. A poor PNA can be handled by a other mitigating factors, however, with no HP to anchor and very little cold air and well... I would think this is an inland runner or a cutter. 

Yup, thread the needle.  give it time.  18z eps already went that way

[JDClapper]

36 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

18z EPS shifted 25 miles NW

Welp, I guess that's that then.

[StretchCT]

That's a lot of southerlies between the lows and the highs.

[TheComet]

The transfer to the coast with no H to the north looked suspect to me.

[Penn State]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

Unfortunately there is no cold to force this, nor is the PNA in a good position. A poor PNA can be handled by a other mitigating factors, however, with no HP to anchor and very little cold air and well... I would think this is an inland runner or a cutter. 

I can definitely see that unfolding unfortunately.. I mentioned that lack of high in the initial post as well. I sense that we are in a progression of storms sinking a little more S and E with each pass as the cold pushes a little more each time. Gives me more confidence for the 25-26th event, but I’m hoping to pleasantly surprised with this one, even if it’s just some front end snow and ice and a change to rain. 

[JDClapper]

Saw these online.. p10,p90 ensemble 850 temp means at 1am Monday.

[JDClapper]

0z ICON with the 70/40 benchmark

[Penn State]

Somewhat off-topic.. but relevant.. Looking for feedback on the thread title. Would a NE/Mid-Atl designation in the title be more recognizable and effective? I can add that if there’s somewhat universal agreement that it would be useful. 

[JDClapper]

For 7am Sunday, 0z GFS is just a tad more positive tilt and a tad lower heights out front from 12z/18z.  Only a few miles, nothing earth shattering.

[JDClapper]

Such a nice track, but as we already knew, marginal 850s/2m for south of NY interior.  NE does extremely well on GFS.

[JDClapper]

Added 0z CMC ... compare to 12z suite.  See ya in the morning!

[HVSNOWSTORM]

0z Euro snow cut back still has the southern fringe on play ill take my 3-6"ish and run. 

 

[PA road DAWG]

WNEP for the Scranton area 

 

[MaineJay]

You just need this shortwave to get out ahead a little bit more. It will alter the track, shifting it east, and get a little more cold.  Keep it positively tilted for another could hours, then phase.

 It would come at the expense of the strength, but a weaker system will also pull up less warmth.

[MaineJay]

Oz GEFS

[MaineJay]

Last 72 hours of GFS. As mentioned before, is like to see the effect of the previous storms snowfall on this one.

[MaineJay]

EPS shift of tails.  

Ukie track.

[Wtkidz]

Sterling’s thoughts for us in r the southern Mid Atlantic.

 

Spoiler

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term forecast looks to be active as two large weather systems impact the region, first Sunday into Monday, then Tuesday night into Wednesday. A large mid-level trough develops in the Central Plains on Saturday as two shortwaves phase together, with a third shortwave noted in the models ahead of the main trough. At the same time, a broad surface low develops in the Deep South and lifts north toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday into Monday. Models are in better agreement, indicating the surface low tracks across the NC/VA Piedmont region toward the Delmarva, then lifts northeast to southern New England by Monday morning. Widespread rain is likely to be ongoing across the entire area by Sunday afternoon. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow is possible along and west of the Blue Ridge Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. For those east of the Blue Ridge, precip is likely to be rain throughout the entire event, with a small chance for a brief period of wintry mix. One factor that will make a big difference in the p-type west of the Blue Ridge is the position/strength of the surface low, and how much cold air is in place before precip begins. There`s still a good amount of uncertainty, so stay tuned for further updates. As the surface low deepens and moves away from the area, upslope snow is likely along/west of the Allegheny Front Monday into Monday night. Precip comes to an end elsewhere by late morning to early afternoon Monday. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds directly overhead. However, the quiet weather is short-lived as a second mid/upper trough moves through the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday night, bringing widespread rain and possibly a wintry mix.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Wtkidz

[StLweatherjunkie]

21 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

EPS shift of tails.  

Ukie track.

EFI favors inland locations ... Seems like the kind of system where being too close to the ocean hurts. Hopefully you're far enough north and inland to cash in, you're due!

[HVSNOWSTORM]

 

Euro ens;

[HVSNOWSTORM]

GFS ticked SE with snowfall extent towards the Euro and Cmc looks.

[MaineJay]

8 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

EFI favors inland locations ... Seems like the kind of system where being too close to the ocean hurts. Hopefully you're far enough north and inland to cash in, you're due!

 15 miles from the ocean, as the crow flies, could be considered the base of the foothills.

Might get double digits tonight, I also have some elevation to help out.  I'm okay with missing out, as long as the ski areas can cash in, been a tough season for them, same for the snowmobilers, but cautiously optimistic.

  The big drawback is the ice on the lakes, super sketchy, and the snow on thin ice is no bueno. Every life flight I see go overhead, I assume it's a person who went through the ice.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

As just alluded to, the next system is on tap in the Sunday evening
through Monday timeframe with models perhaps trending just a smidge
slower but overall remaining in relatively good agreement on a
deepening coastal storm, bringing widespread precipitation and
strong winds to the area, perhaps coastal flooding during the Monday
morning high tide cycle depending on the eventual track. The track
of the low will also determine the dominant precip type with the
latest operational ECWMF and ensemble mean taking the low more into
the Gulf of Maine with the operational GFS closer to the coast. The
Ensemble Mean of the GFS is also over the Gulf of Maine, but the
individual members aren`t as tightly clustered with plenty still
closer to the coast and several farther to the south and east. We`ll
see how trends go over the coming days, but for right now the best
chance of accumulating snow will be farther north toward the
mountains and foothills. However, should the trend be for the low to
track across the Gulf of Maine, there will be more potential for
accumulating snow across southern areas as well.

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

 15 miles from the ocean, as the crow flies, could be considered the base of the foothills.

Might get double digits tonight, I also have some elevation to help out.  I'm okay with missing out, as long as the ski areas can cash in, been a tough season for them, same for the snowmobilers, but cautiously optimistic.

  The big drawback is the ice on the lakes, super sketchy, and the snow on thin ice is no bueno. Every life flight I see go overhead, I assume it's a person who went through the ice.

Pretty amazing how not cold January has been. I think the UP was cold enough in December for the inland lakes to freeze pretty solid, but geez that sounds sketchy out your way. Stay safe!

[JDClapper]

Tightening up.