JDClapper Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Currently 30.4F here with a DP of 27. We've had such a low snow winter I'm very interested to see what form precip falls. Normally by now I'm ready to move off the hill. 36 with DP 24 here. So, wetbulbing at this moment would get us close to freezing, but we have a few more hours before precip arrives here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I think 12k NAM is a tad closer to reality on the H8 temps now with the 12z run, than from what I was seeing earlier of MJ posting. Maybe reality is a few miles colder, but it's close. 3k NAM too, maybe a little overdone with the warmth in SWPA. Agreed. We have frozen radar returns much further south than progged. Has to be a side effect of more strength on the coast. Edited January 22, 2023 by MDBlueridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: 36 with DP 24 here. So, wetbulbing at this moment would get us close to freezing, but we have a few more hours before precip arrives here. If she gets her butt in gear tho you may have good snow falling with 33-34F ground temps. Still could be fun. We're usually the reverse, WAA goes above and the ridges stay below freezing after wetbulb. I'm not so sure this time. Even my wife said, it would be nice to see more snow. Not words typically uttered in late January here lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: If she gets her butt in gear tho you may have good snow falling with 33-34F ground temps. Still could be fun. We're usually the reverse, WAA goes above and the ridges stay below freezing after wetbulb. I'm not so sure this time. Even my wife said, it would be nice to see more snow. Not words typically uttered in late January here lol Yeah, definitely going to be a gloopy snow.. might struggle to affect the roads much, which is fine. Just hope the grass, deck and snowboard take it on pretty easily. Sun should be very low horizon/getting dark by the time precip gets going here. 3:30-4:30ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: If she gets her butt in gear tho you may have good snow falling with 33-34F ground temps. Still could be fun. We're usually the reverse, WAA goes above and the ridges stay below freezing after wetbulb. I'm not so sure this time. Even my wife said, it would be nice to see more snow. Not words typically uttered in late January here lol Some snow on the ground really helps make it brighter outside, helps offset the fewer hours of daylight. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, definitely going to be a gloopy snow.. might struggle to affect the roads much, which is fine. Just hope the grass, deck and snowboard take it on pretty easily. Sun should be very low horizon/getting dark by the time precip gets going here. 3:30-4:30ish. I'll bite today. Sunday morning with my weather friends. Below PA turnpike super elevation dependent. Find a hill 1500' or over. But temps between 30-34F with Dp's in the mid to high 20's and rain? Nope. I don't buy it. Coastal strengthens but warm push at coast changes ridges over to plain rain? Hard sell for me. Someone above the PA turnpike is gonna have a pretty fun paste job. Dinner plate flakes. Coastal reflection continues to look better. Moving NE is not my area at all. Thats why we have MJ. Edited January 22, 2023 by MDBlueridge 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I'll bite today. Sunday morning with my weather friends. Below PA turnpike super elevation dependent. Find a hill 1500' or over. But temps between 30-34F with Dp's in the mid to high 20's and rain? Nope. I don't buy it. Coastal strengthens but warm push at coast changes ridges over to plain rain? Hard sell for me. Someone above the PA turnpike is gonna have a pretty fun paste job. Dinner plate flakes. Coastal reflection continues to look better. Moving NE is not my area at all. Thats why we have MJ. It’s still just 34 in Chambersburg.. heavier clouds have rolled in. Forecasted to be 41 today. I like where I’m at currently.. at least for something on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z suite not disappointing for mby so far...interested to see if we get upgraded to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Penn State said: It’s still just 34 in Chambersburg.. heavier clouds have rolled in. Forecasted to be 41 today. I like where I’m at currently.. at least for something on the front end. Agree completely. Cumberland Valley can also provide a surprise or two. We've gotten frozen returns well south of Charlottesville, VA currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Lord please just keep us on the colder side 🙏. A 2 degree difference would go a long way for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: I just asked them why the overpeformer. Do you know why, was it colder or low more southeast or just more moisture etc? I think there was concern about warm ground, and it seems the snow came down and stuck immediately, that probably set the stage. Then a combination of factors involving, lift, temps, and moisture all, or at least mostly, leaned positive for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22, 2023 Need that precipitation field to start intensifying in the middle.. digital precipitation is entering SCPA, and it’s only 36.5. There’s a chance! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) From the overnight. New one will come out this afternoon. 39 and partly sunny now. Wider view Edited January 22, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 22, 2023 Norton's perspective - high winds, power outages, heavy wet snow.... might expand advisories Spoiler .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Highlights * Strong coastal storm impacts southern New England. Heavy wet snow especially across NW MA into Worcester county may result in power outages. Accumulating snow will bring impacts to the Monday AM and PM commute. * Gusty winds and high astronomical tides will result in minor coastal flooding across portions of eastern MA. See the coastal flood section for more details. A positively tilted trough will extend from the Great Lakes into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this evening. The trough lifts into the OH Valley/eastern Great Lakes by early Monday and is roughly neutrally tilted. The trough lifts into and through much of New England by late Monday. A broad low will develop across the SC/NC/VA region late today. The low deepens as it moves toward the southern New England coast tonight. The low continues to deepen as it lifts into the Gulf of Maine early on Monday and Nova Scotia by late in the day. Confidence has increased in accumulating snowfall across northwestern MA into portions of central MA. Guidance has trended a further southeast for precip tonight and we are also seeing more snow get squeezed out on the backside of the system within the comma head. Have hoisted Winter Storm Warnings across northwestern MA into portions of central MA where am anticipating 4-8 inches of snowfall accumulation. Given there will be a prolonged period of isothermal profiles as precip is over our region tonight should see a wet heavy snowfall across much of the warning area, so am thinking there could be snow load issues especially once winds pick up on Monday. Elsewhere did opt to expand the Winter Weather Advisory a bit further S/E as we are anticipating a bit more accumulation with the comma head on the backside of the system. This makes sense as we see a northeasterly 20-40 kt jet in place at 925 hPa for later on Monday. With this setup am also seeing some low probabilities (10-30 percent chance) of snowfall rates of up to 1" per hour Monday afternoon. Anticipate that this will make the Monday commutes difficult across the region. Not out of the question that the Advisory needs to be expanded further, especially if guidance continues to trend upward with the afternoon burst of snow. At this point have just hoisted the Warning and Advisories where am most confident forecast wise. Should initially see a good burst of rain/snow across the region tonight as PWATs increase to 0.6 to 1.25 inches and as it deepens over the Cape/Islands into early Monday. Will see PWATs lower later on Monday as the low lifts offshore into the 0.4-0.6 inch range. However, am seeing a fairly potent comma head in place and we remain within the poleward exit region of the jet lifting through. Think we will have a more widespread area where there are impacts to the Monday PM commute given the timing of the afternoon burst of snow. The only question at this point is the exact location/extent of the afternoon precip. Deterministic/ensemble guidance still a bit spread on where this activity sets up. Synoptic scale guidance slides it through southern New England, whereas the ARW/NAM12 confines it more to northern portions of the CWA. Something we will have to hone in on a bit more in future updates. Will have increasing NE to N winds late tonight as the low deepens as it lifts into the Cape/Islands. Expect the warm sector to remain offshore, so am not anticipating us to tap into the 30-60+ kt southerly jet. Have more confidence in the stronger winds/gusts as flow turns to the N/NW later on Monday. Will see 925 hPa winds of 20- 40+ kts which will not be difficult to mix down. Did bump up the wind speeds/gusts toward the NBM90th percentile during this timeframe. Given portions of the region will have heavy wet snow, the snow nature in combination with the wind could exacerbate potential power outage issues especially where warnings are currently located. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 33.9F we started with flurries/sneet about an hour ago Light precip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 22, 2023 25.5° DP 22° There's actually a little bit of microscopic frozen precip wafting around in the air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22, 2023 Well.. It’s precipitating. Unfortunately, rain and sleet. 36.5 F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Penn State said: Well.. It’s precipitating. Unfortunately, rain and sleet. 36.5 F. Same boat here now. Temp has dropped to 32.2F. I'm hoping for the "show" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 22, 2023 The Euro giveth, the Euro taketh away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 22, 2023 Watching that radar down in MS/AL, NAM doesn't see it. Not sure the implications. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 22, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Same boat here now. Temp has dropped to 32.2F. I'm hoping for the "show" tonight. If that coastal low and potential deformation band gets its act together.. could be some brief entertainment. Our temp is starting to back off.. got up to 37, back to 36.3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, telejunkie said: 12z suite not disappointing for mby so far...interested to see if we get upgraded to a warning. I bet you get upgraded. BTV sounds more bullish this afternoon on this event. Quote NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...Forecast remains largely on track. Quiet weather this afternoon. Stubborn 2000-3000 ft cloud deck remains draped across much of our area thanks to an inversion layer right above that. We could see a slight thinning/lifting of the cloud deck towards late afternoon/sunset but clouds will once again thicken/lower shortly after sundown. National mosaic radar shows two distinct bands of precipitation, one over the Ohio valley associated with the sfc low near Mackinac Bridge and the other over the Carolinas/southern VA associated with a sfc low near the SC/NC border. Noted that SPC Day 1 convective outlook has general thunder all the way up to Norfolk, VA. While the calendar might say mid/late January, the observed PWATs across the eastern seaboard depicts another story. SPC mesoanalysis shows up to 1.7 inches PWATs associated with the developing coastal low over the Carolinas. While our forecast PWATs will not get quite nearly as high, it will get into the 90th percentile range, from the perspective of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. Generally 0.5-0.6 inch PWATs for much of VT, except 0.7 to 1.0 inch for southern VT, southern NH into southern New England. Temperatures wise, pretty much the entire area remains at or below freezing with 925mb temps at around -6C. This will set the stage for an all snow event as the anomalous, almost early spring like moisture encounters the seasonably cold air mass with a low level jet enhancement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 It seems there is a lot of nowcasting to be done with this storm. Seems the models may not have grasped all the intricasies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) After seeing the entire 12z suite, surprised Burlington still has me in Advisory mode. Excito-meter is up pretty high right now....this one has some juice. Oops...I see @TheRex agrees with me. Edited January 22, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 22, 2023 Thinking we'll get an IPT report from our guy in the field soon. Looks like some bright banding or sleet near the PA/MD border? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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