January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[CIWeather]

3 minutes ago, Grace said:

Last 3 runs

 

Mine has steadily increased. Hopefully that trend continues.

[SNOWBOB11]

The GEFS looks more SE than the operational runs. I think we will see a shift SE with the GFS op tomorrow at some point. Interested to see what the euro says.

[StormfanaticInd]

❄️ 

[SNOWBOB11]

Pretty nice run on the euro for several locations.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Eps

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

First system needs excluded 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Wow, so long GFS 👋 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[junior]

Team Euro all day until it’s not. 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It's wrong. From LOT office:

Things look pretty quiet Sunday night into Tuesday as high
pressure transits the region. The next time period of interest
appears to be Tuesday night into Wednesday night or thereabouts
with global guidance indicating a deeper/stronger and more
moisture-laden southern stream disturbance potentially making a
close enough pass to produce another period of snow across the
region. While agreement across the extended guidance is actually
very good for a 120+ hour forecast, still noting plenty of spread
in the expected surface low track across the ensemble envelope,
with ensemble mean tracks already far enough south that any
slightly later arrival of the northern stream piece of the puzzle
will result in another miss south. Blended offering of higher-
end chance PoPs looked good for this forecast cycle.

Carlaw

[Cary67]

And the 6Z GFS track is great for me

[Hiramite]

Still not much confidence from the WPC in our neck of the woods.

[Grace]

3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

First system needs excluded 

 

Thanks!!!

One more look. OV would love this track 

 

0z Members

[Hiramite]

GEFS trend last two runs.  High up north is a tad stronger.

[Grace]

6z GEFS loop

[BuckeyeGal]

The GFS is handling the low much differently than the other main models as it progresses. Time will tell which one is right. (You all know I hope the GFS ends up looking like a clown with pie on its face, but yeah, lol.)

[SNOWBOB11]

With the EPS and GEFS mean track looking further east than the op I think like I said earlier we see a farther east track. GFS op seems to be wrapping the system up and not transferring the energy east fast enough compared to other model runs.

At this points it’s just good to see models keeping with the stronger low setup.

[Hiramite]

Granted there won't be much time left after Sunday's system departs, but hopefully having that system out of the way "clears things up" for the models.

[Grace]

6z EPS...snow maps. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

EPS low clustering strongly suggests it's locked onto the idea of a low near Paducah, KY Wednesday morning. Since this is a closed low moving across the mountainous west, it's probably wise to filter out the faster/farther east solutions in favor of the slower/western solutions. Either way the energy should be mostly sampled for the 00z Sunday model suite in just over 36 hours ... 

Edited January 20, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[StLweatherjunkie]

11 minutes ago, Grace said:

6z EPS...snow maps. 

Looks brutally close for you, careful with the icing potential ...

[StormfanaticInd]

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said:

The GFS is handling the low much differently than the other main models as it progresses. Time will tell which one is right. (You all know I hope the GFS ends up looking like a clown with pie on its face, but yeah, lol.)

Seems like the GFS has advertised extreme solutions for almost every system this winter only to cave toward other guidance as the storm approaches. Calling the GFS a clown is being too nice this year.

[BuckeyeGal]

11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm ordering number 8.