January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

What happened?  They didn’t believe the GFS track. 😁

[CIWeather]

Ok, can I just say this is not really on topic specifically for this storm but I was reading nearby AFDs from this morning. This is the one from Chicago. Can I just point out the last name of the person who wrote this? Expand and I bolded it at the bottom 😂

Quote

Friday evening, our low levels dry out as well keeping things quiet
through the night and into Saturday morning. In fact, we may be able
to actually sneak in a little morning sunshine on Saturday. Even if
we do though, it will be short-lived. Another plume of low level
moisture will be moving in ahead of our next system. That being a
broad area of surface low pressure underneath an elongated positively-
tilted low level trough with a stout LLJ surging up into the
Midwest. This system looks to be a tricky one regarding P-type given
a potent warm front forecast to move through the southern CWA as
well as a lack of saturation above -10C. I`m still awfully impressed
how well models are agreeing on the track and layout of this storm.
Impressed, but none-too-pleased since just about all model solutions
point toward a messy system. In addition to P-type fun, models are
also resolving a great deal of forcing through the low level
saturation. Specifically, we`re looking at a good amount of synoptic-
scale lift under the left exit region of the low-mid level jet max,
a pronounced vort signature, and, perhaps most notably, an
exceptional baroclinic zone with strong deformation along a tight
theta-e gradient leading to distinct f-gen banding. This leads to
concerns regarding heavy, banded precip including a potential for
snow squalls. While it`s not wise to get too excited about such a
thing this far out, there is considerable consistency among
guidance. This is all to say that we`ll be keeping a close eye on
this system through the rest of the week. As it stands, most
guidance is throwing up everything from snow to rain to widespread
freezing rain, all of which appear very attainable looking at
forecast soundings. For now, I once again opted to go with all snow
for the time being, though I`m sure that will change as we approach
the weekend. The most likely timeframe for precip looks to be
Saturday afternoon through night. Behind this system, a frigid
airmass looks to bring much cooler conditions to the area early next
week. Single digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chills are looking
likely.

Doom

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by CIWeather

[junior]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

What happened?  They didn’t believe the GFS track. 😁

Yea the GFS did really well with this. Pretty much unchanged for days on low position. 

[NWOhioChaser]

Looks like Toledo flirting with the dry slot if this doesn’t fill in and the banding doesn’t pivot more east…

[Hiramite]

1 minute ago, junior said:

Yea the GFS did really well with this. Pretty much unchanged for days on low position. 

I’ll post the last Low Trackers along with the actual path once the storm is over.

[Hiramite]

Both thermometers still reading 33°. at 1:30. Warm air is sometimes slow making it up over the Hiram “hills”.  But, eventually it does, just like on TDAT movie last night. 

[Shiver Me Timbers]

This is the first year I've spent in the midwest. It appears the situation doesn't change just because of geographic location:  without a cold air mass in place, snowstorms will underperform. Big snows don't come with the cold air. They come from the south and override entrenched cold air masses. Exceptions being intense clippers and lake effect. 

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

Ok, can I just say this is not really on topic specifically for this storm but I was reading nearby AFDs from this morning. This is the one from Chicago. Can I just point out the last name of the person who wrote this? Expand and I bolded it at the bottom 😂

 

I'd imagine that someone else is going to say either "Heat Miser" or "Snow Miser" soon.

[cperry29]

2 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

This is the first year I've spent in the midwest. It appears the situation doesn't change just because of geographic location:  without a cold air mass in place, snowstorms will underperform. Big snows don't come with the cold air. They come from the south and override entrenched cold air masses. Exceptions being intense clippers and lake effect. 

That’s pretty spot on! 😂

[Jpfalcon]

8 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Looks like Toledo flirting with the dry slot if this doesn’t fill in and the banding doesn’t pivot more east…

Seems all but guaranteed at this juncture. Further north track of the low means the heavier modeled precip will shift along with it. I've measured about 2-2.5" at work. Really nothing to get excited about. Maybe squeeze out another inch before things are done. My in-laws up in Brooklyn cashed in.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

No. There was a lot more to it than that. As I've said a few times here, even in Indiana where Ptype was not an issue the storm failed to put down even half of what was expected. If the only issue was a shift to the north, my area would have had 8-10" but instead nobody received anything even approaching those numbers. 

[SOMOSnow]

Did everyone beyond Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas pretty much strike out with this storm? I'm just trying to catch up.

[SNOWBOB11]

Storm outer bands started to move in around 10am to my area (east of Toronto) but was generally light up until around 20 minutes ago. Moderate to heavy snow is now currently coming down and accumulating quickly. Radar looks good from the south. Looking at 6-10”. We’ll see what we can get to.

Edited January 25, 2023 by SNOWBOB11

[cperry29]

2 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

No. There was a lot more to it than that. As I've said a few times here, even in Indiana where Ptype was not an issue the storm failed to put down even half of what was expected. If the only issue was a shift to the north, my area would have had 8-10" but instead nobody received anything even approaching those numbers. 

I think @Jpfalcon posted on the last page a met from Indy explaining his thoughts on lower totals. This is the norm living in the Midwest. You win some, you often lose some. 

[Jpfalcon]

2 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

No. There was a lot more to it than that. As I've said a few times here, even in Indiana where Ptype was not an issue the storm failed to put down even half of what was expected. If the only issue was a shift to the north, my area would have had 8-10" but instead nobody received anything even approaching those numbers. 

Marginal temps = low ratios. QPF was there but it just couldn't accumulate well enough. I'm not sure how well models still grasp this concept given Kuchera outputs usually don't verify.

[Hiramite]

Keep in mind that graphic that OhioBuckeye posted was an explanation for the general public for ILN forecast area. 

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Northern Indiana received exactly one half inch in the hours following the SPC statement warning about several hours of heavy snowfall rates. The statement was the only reason I hadn't thrown in the towel. How the heck could they have been so foolish? The rates weren't high. The temperatures were. The radar was already showing the back end approaching. And they issued a dire-sounding warning. Makes zero sense in retrospect. Someone should be on the hot seat for this. Is there any accountability in these agencies? Just being curious. I mean, if you warn everyone that dangerous weather is imminent and it doesn't even come close to verifying -- are there consequences? There should be. We are no better at forecasting than we were 30 years ago. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Shiver Me Timbers

[OSUWx2]

Can’t say I ever shoveled water before, but that’s essentially what I did on my back patio. 2” remained in the shade from Sunday’s snow and was completely waterlogged. It was just as bad as shoveling (the precipitation type that shall not be named) the last 2 winters. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Shiver Me Timbers said:

Northern Indiana received exactly one half inch in the hours following the SPC statement warning about several hours of heavy snowfall rates. The statement was the only reason I hadn't thrown in the towel. How the heck could they have been so foolish? The rates weren't high. The temperatures were. The radar was already showing the back end approaching. And they issued a dire-sounding warning. Makes zero sense in retrospect. Someone should be on the hot seat for this. Is there any accountability in these agencies? Just being curious. I mean, if you warn someone that dangerous weather is imminent and it doesn't even come close to verifying -- are there consequences? There should be. We are no better at forecasting than we were 30 years ago. 

I understand your disappointment, and I absolutely believe we have the right to ask questions.. but I'll ask that you tone down the negativity toward mets and those in NWS offices/agencies. We have a lot of posters who are mets themselves, and we don't allow the slander. Thanks!

[Shiver Me Timbers]

6 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Marginal temps = low ratios. QPF was there but it just couldn't accumulate well enough. I'm not sure how well models still grasp this concept given Kuchera outputs usually don't verify.

I could be wrong but I don't believe QPF was anywhere near predicted levels in Indiana

[Jpfalcon]

This chart is always handy for systems like this. Thermal profiles have a lot to do with it. Unfortunately this storm just didn't have enough of the ingredients to follow a good snowmaking recipe...

Edited January 25, 2023 by Jpfalcon

[Shiver Me Timbers]

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I understand your disappointment, and I absolutely believe we have the right to ask questions.. but I'll ask that you tone down the negativity toward mets and those in NWS offices/agencies. We have a lot of posters who are mets themselves, and we don't allow the slander. Thanks!

I thought I toned it exactly the way it should have been. I'm literally just wondering if there is pressure to improve... that's all. I know we're only human...  but this is a really really bad forecast. And we're not talking about the 24 or 48 hour forecast. It was essentially a nowcast. And it wasn't anything like what was really happening

[Ohiobuckeye45]

33 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Additional snow correct?

correct

25 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Looks like Toledo flirting with the dry slot if this doesn’t fill in and the banding doesn’t pivot more east…

part of this related to the above, slow pivot 

20 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Both thermometers still reading 33°. at 1:30. Warm air is sometimes slow making it up over the Hiram “hills”.  But, eventually it does, just like on TDAT movie last night. 

complete rager up to 41.5 out of no where now....induced by a brief thinning of clouds the "eye" if you will...clouding back up now. The race to sunset is real.

9 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Marginal temps = low ratios. QPF was there but it just couldn't accumulate well enough. I'm not sure how well models still grasp this concept given Kuchera outputs usually don't verify.

Kuchera busted big time LOW on the weekend storm and now busted big time HIGH on this storm. 10:1 also didnt work with the weekend storm (at least here because we were closer to 12:1) so someone needs to do some work on ratios for events like this

11 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Did everyone beyond Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas pretty much strike out with this storm? I'm just trying to catch up.

N IN and SEMI are doing well 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

I could be wrong but I don't believe QPF was anywhere near predicted levels in Indiana

obs maps will confirm in the 7 AM update tomorrow 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=stageiv&p=stageiv_qpe_072h_p&r=us_mw

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

N IN and SEMI are doing well 

no, we aren't. Few slushy inches is all.

South Bend: