January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Grace]

46 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

The 18z Euro wobbled NW, too. Not feeling great. Hoping the 0z runs improve.

Wobble NW in Ohio but SE for west ky. Just to be clear. 😀

Edited January 25, 2023 by Grace

[Hiramite]

Last SREF Update for this storm....

Meh.  As always, there will be a SREF vs Actual comparison at the end of this event.

Reading taken @ 1-27 12Z

15z & 21Z SREF update.(also includes 3Z, 9Z, 15z, 21Z) 

Toledo (TOL)- 4.1/4.2/5.6/4.9   Cleveland (CLE)- 3.4/4.0/3.7/3.0     

Youngstown (YNG)- 2.7/3.3/3.0/3.1  

Findlay (FDY)- 3.8/3.8/4.5/3.3     Marion, OH (MNN)- 3.2/3.4/3.3/2.6     

Sidney, OH (ROD)- 3.6/3.4/4.2/3.3         

Dayton-S (MGY)- 2.6/2.3/2.6/2.2    Hamilton, OH (HAO)- 1.6/1.3/2.0/1.5   

Covington (CVG)- 1.4/0.9/1.2/0.8    

Columbus (CMH)- 1.9/1.6/1.9/1.5      Mt. Vernon, OH- 3.1/2.5/2.6/1.9     

Zanesville (ZZV)- 1.7/1.2/1.4/0.9       

Flint (FNT)- 4.3/4.9/5.4/4.6      Detroit (DTW)- 4.1/4.5/5.5/5.4          

Indy (IND)- 4.3/4.5/6.5/5.8     Decatur IL (DEC)- 6.2/7.8/6.2/5.1     

Edited January 25, 2023 by Hiramite

[CleLakeEffect]

CLE not impressed for NE OH. High end amounts not too high.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Speaking to my Ohio brethren...

File this away in your memory banks...this is what the NAM showed us this afternoon with less than 18 hours til showtime...

AKA - this is why I struggle to take the NAM seriously until its final run before precip is falling from the sky.

Edited January 25, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Hiramite]

Forgive me if this has been posted already.  Between the SREFs and the Day After Tomorrow starting at 8:00, I haven't made it thru all the posts yet.

[BuckeyeGal]

6 minutes ago, Grace said:

Wobble NW in Ohio but SE for west ky. Just to be clear. 😀

Sorry, I thought the low pressure itself wobbled NW, too.. must've looked incorrectly.

[cperry29]

3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Speaking to my Ohio brethren...

File this away in your memory banks...this is what the NAM showed us this afternoon with less than 18 hours til showtime...

Seems like so long ago. 😂 Now I’m looking at pale shades of blue 🥴

[easton229]

Man the HRRR continues to paint 8-10” for SEMI. Would be amazing if that came true. A few more warnings definitely would be needed.

Edited January 25, 2023 by easton229

[BuckeyeGal]

Congrats to NW Ohio, Indiana and Michigan, it looks like. 😊 The 0z RAP and HRRR were painful for my area. Keep chopping, I guess.

[Blitz]

14 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Speaking to my Ohio brethren...

File this away in your memory banks...this is what the NAM showed us this afternoon with less than 18 hours til showtime...

AKA - this is why I struggle to take the NAM seriously until it's final run before precip is falling from the sky.

I'd seen the NAM crap the bed too many times to get my hopes up. I was more optimistic when the Euro kept Columbus in the 4 inch range and now that appears to be diminishing.

I'm feeling fairly confident we get 2-3 inches followed by a rain out in Central Ohio. To be honest, that's been my take for 2-3 days now.

[Snow____]

RAP was painful for sure lol. I need a break (but I won’t take one 😂😂)

[easton229]

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Congrats to NW Ohio, Indiana and Michigan, it looks like. 😊 The 0z RAP and HRRR were painful for my area. Keep chopping, I guess.

This has been quite the roller coaster ride, and I’m sure there’s one more twist or turn to come. There always is.

[Hiramite]

Alrighty then, sounds like we need a pick-me-up.  I'm somewhat surprised at this map, but I don't make, I just copy and paste 'em.  This includes some late week snows as well.

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

0z NAM has initialized....

Prepare to watch the gloriously embarrassing cave to reality 🤡

[Gerb131]

at least we won’t have to watch virga eat away for 3hrs. column is saturated. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Alrighty then, sounds like we need a pick-me-up.  I'm somewhat surprised at this map, but I don't make, I just copy and paste 'em.  This includes some late week snows as well.

 

 

[Hiramite]

8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

I was expecting Frank, but Jed is good too!!!!

Edited January 25, 2023 by Hiramite

[FortySixAnd32]

6 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Alrighty then, sounds like we need a pick-me-up.  I'm somewhat surprised at this map, but I don't make, I just copy and paste 'em.  This includes some late week snows as well.

 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

🤦‍♂️

[MesoscaleBanding]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I was expected Frank, but Jed is good too!!!!

I'm saving Frank - soon...

[Hiramite]

As we await the NambinOz...

Interesting weather stuff along the Lake shore.  

From CLE:

In particular, slightly later arrival and downslope flow may lead to a local minimum in snowfall amounts along the lakeshore from Cleveland to Erie.

From the 0Z HRRRRRRRRR:

Edited January 25, 2023 by Hiramite

[Snow____]

12 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

0z NAM has initialized....

Prepare to watch the gloriously embarrassing cave to reality 🤡

You called it 😂😂

[mafa]

HRW FV3 please for the central Ohio peeps 🙏

[RobB]

Current look

[Snow____]

13 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

0z NAM has initialized....

Prepare to watch the gloriously embarrassing cave to reality 🤡

And then the FV3 which has been favorable at all to me just gave me 4 inches 🤦🏽‍♂️