January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

ALRIGHT WHO KILLED THE EURO. Hasn't even initialized 

Cold Miser

[Pros3lyte]

9 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Ugh the typical SEMI dry slot 🤦‍♂️

I was gonna say, Look at that stinking donut hole!

[BuckeyeGal]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

No but seriously....euro. Need. Lets Go.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

don't want to spoil the SREF tracker but I'll say SREF was really far NW to begin with so its 15z isn't that surprising 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

I forgot he mentioned he would be away until this evening, so here you go haha

 

 

[Pros3lyte]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I forgot he mentioned he would be away until this evening, so here you go haha

 

 

Yikes!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CMC ENS pretty much unchanged, maybe banding slightly SE in IN

Edited January 24, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[mafa]

I want to know what model he is using

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, mafa said:

I want to know what model he is using

00z euro for sure, possibly 6z but definitely Euro

Edited January 24, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[RobB]

Current radar/OBS

[Harberr62]

From IND:

Key Points:

WINTER STORM WARNING across much of central Indiana from Late
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Afternoon

* Generally 6-9 inches with highest amounts north and west of
  Indianapolis, and less amounts further south and east

* Significant impacts to travel expected Wednesday morning

Discussion:

A significant winter storm remains on track to impact central
Indiana Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Finer grid spaced
models are continuing the idea of a two phased low pressure system,
with greater detail on the timing of each.

Tonight, a closed surface low will approach from the southwest. To
its east, the combination of a strong high over the Atlantic will
create a robust LLJ, topping out around 75kts within its core. This
strong LLJ will provide intense WAA over the Ohio Valley, deepening
the surface pressure out ahead of the already developed surface
cyclone. This region of deepening low pressure, along with strong
vertical ascent will be the primary focus of the initial wave of
precipitation.

Temperatures this afternoon will get into the mid 40s over south
central Indiana, quickly cooling off around dusk. A rapidly
expanding cloud deck will act to limit diurnal cooling however,
creating some uncertainty on temperatures as precipitation enters
Indiana from the SW/S. The current expectation is for temperatures
to be around 36-38 degrees initially, leading to a rain/snow mix.
Temperatures should begin to fall towards freezing with wetbulb
temperatures around 34, aiding in the maintenance of snowflakes as
the fall to the surface. Soundings during this initial wave show a
near isothermal layer well above the ideal DGZ temperatures, of
which will lower SLRs significantly (3-5:1). This should result in a
very dense 1-3 inches south of I-70, with lesser amounts to the
northeast. Timing for this initial wave looks to be between 12am and
6am EST.

The second wave of precipitation will be more associated with the
aforementioned established surface cyclone. This system will be
dynamically aligned with the surface low just to the SE of the 850mb
and 750mb closed lows respectively. This should create an optimal
zone for vertical lift along and north of I-70 where high snowfall
rates are likely during the Wednesday morning hours. The 0C isotherm
should be just south I-70, and will create a rain snow mix,
decreasing SLRs and lowering totals for this region. In far SE
central Indiana, p-type will eventually transition to all rain in
the late morning to afternoon.

High resolution model input has added some clarity to the timing of
heaviest snowfall rates for central Indiana tomorrow. Around 8-9am,
deepening of the 700mb low along with intense isentropic lift out
ahead of the low will create very strong vertical lift, most of which
in a saturated DGZ. This should lead to a prolonged period of at
least 0.5"/hr snowfall rates, along with some locations reaching
1"/hr. This is expected to continue til around 12-1pm, with less
intense snow continuing through the afternoon. In total, the second
wave will proved an additional inch or two over south central
Indiana, with an additional 5-7" likely along and north of the I-70
corridor. Locally higher amounts are also likely within mesoscale
banding within north central Indiana. South central Indiana will
have some snow, but will compact quickly as rain becomes more
predominant. This area is expected to see 0.5"-2" with the second
wave.


Summary:

Snow will begin around midnight Wednesday morning / Late Tuesday
night. Snow ratios will be a bit lower with dense wet snow during
the night. Snow quickly accumulating on the road surfaces is
expected as higher rates / lack of solar radiation will overcome any
residual ground warmth. A couple of inches will likely already be on
the ground by sunrise Wednesday, leading to hazardous driving
conditions. Rain may mix in temporarily near and just south of the
surface low, which will most likely pass just south of I-70. Higher
snowfall rates are likely during the late morning hours on Wednesday
as deformation banding on the northwest side of the low begins to
take shape. Snow begins to wind down late in the afternoon, after 4-
6 PM or so. In totality, Snow totals of 6 to 9 inches are expected,
with the highest amounts north and west of Indianapolis. Lesser
amounts further to the southeast.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

no idea who this is nor the validity but how many people are really talking about the weather model euro on a regular basis so seems legit 😄

 

[Snow____]

1 hour ago, Wnwniner said:

My first shot at drawing a snow map. What do you guys think?

A little too far west for my liking🤪

[beaver56]

4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

no idea who this is nor the validity but how many people are really talking about the weather model euro on a regular basis so seems legit 😄

 

 

What a horrible time for this.  The White Death is coming.  

[NWsnowhio]

3 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

What a horrible time for this.  The White Death is coming.  

EURO maintenance team strolling into work today...

[BuckeyeGal]

Looks like major delays with the release of the Euro. 

[RobB]

10 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Looks like major delays with the release of the Euro. 

I would hope at this lead time that there is less of a need for the Euro.  One would hope a combo of all the others would be good.  I do want me some Euro either way.

Edited January 24, 2023 by RobB

[RobB]

40 degrees at the ole house.

[Indygirl]

3 minutes ago, RobB said:

40 degrees at the ole house.

Same here. And sunny! Actually it’s a really nice day 🙂

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Indygirl said:

Same here. And sunny! Actually it’s a really nice day 🙂

Sun here also.  Is a comfortable day though melty snow is yucky.  Wetwet...

[RobB]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[JayPSU]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Here's hoping the HRRR is right and the RAP is wrong...