January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[snowlover2]

[OSUWx2]

Just now, OSUWx2 said:

Snowmap going to look identical to RGEM too. Which is to be expected

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS

Edited January 24, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Maybe we will shift SE. I don’t think a shift big enough this late in the game will keep it all snow/not warm up… (for me at least) but it may make the heaviest thump shift. Will be interesting to see where that will be. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Snow____

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, Snow____ said:

Maybe we will shift SE. I don’t think a shift big enough this late in the game will keep it all snow/not warm up… (for me at least) but it may make the heaviest thump shift. Will be interesting to see where that will be. 

Less time spent in the WAA dry slot at minimum, thats how I'm looking at it. With hope still the euro/eps is correct

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Small SE bump, especially if your on the western or eastern edge of 2 rows of counties

[Grace]

I just got home in time to check 0z GEFS. Just when you think it's all set in stone mean trends east. 

 

[OSUWx2]

FWIW, here’s the HRDPS (or 2.5k Canadian)

[Grace]

12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GEFS

 

I just posted the same. My bad. Oh well everyone can see both looks. 😀

[Ingyball]

Models are definitely still playing catchup with the precipitation shield. It's likely still being underdone. The GFS has very little in the way of precipitation in eastern New Mexico and the panhandle at 06z. It's ~0430z and we're already looking at robust precipitation in this area.

[Ingyball]

11 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

This post and your other post about early robust precip shield would tend to likely favor more nw track later?

No, not necessarily. Those would only favor a healthier precip shield, essentially softening the gradient some. 

 

Where a northwest shift would stem from is that the models continue to correct slightly west when their 0 hour analysis comes in. 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Models are definitely still playing catchup with the precipitation shield. It's likely still being underdone. The GFS has very little in the way of precipitation in eastern New Mexico and the panhandle at 06z. It's ~0430z and we're already looking at robust precipitation in this area.

I always knew that this has more moisture than expected

[snowlover2]

0z Ukie

[Grace]

Tonight's 0z GFS might be the best model run of the winter from beginning to end. 

[Snow____]

14 minutes ago, Grace said:

Tonight's 0z GFS might be the best model run of the winter from beginning to end. 

If only it could play out exactly like that 😂😂😂

[Grace]

Just now, Snow____ said:

If only it could play out exactly like that 😂😂😂

Will probably be better. I'm going full hype. 😃

[Snow____]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

Will probably be better. I'm going full hype. 😃

If you’re in I’m in! 

[snowlover2]

[Central Illinois]

 

[RadioWX]

IND goes Winter Storm Warning for 4-8 inches for majority of their CWA.  

[Central Illinois]

6z NAM

[Central Illinois]

6z 3km NAM

Edited January 24, 2023 by Central Illinois

[Central Illinois]

Interesting article from ILX on how they use certain models (Ensemble/short range) to forecast when it comes to these winter weather events...im guessing other offices also forecast this way or pretty close https://www.weather.gov/ilx/about_models

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Eps, gfs, rgem

[Central Illinois]