January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Okay, y'all. I went to look at the different approaching energies for this weekend.. and I'm wondering if we just do one thread for both of them? The clipper for Fri-Sat is quickly followed by a larger system. Should I keep them separate or combine? What say you?

Together is fine with me.

[Snow____]

Just now, TheBlizzardOf1978 said:

I didn’t expect to be added to the watch. That’s pretty good and the right move. They can always go WWA if lower amounts look to prevail.

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, Kerbs said:

ROD please!

First post!  🙌 

[Wnwniner]

39 minutes ago, RobB said:

Sorry if this has already been posted.

 

ILN AFD:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Quiet weather during the day Tuesday as strong shortwave trough
digs through the base of the longer wave trough to the west and
begins to rapidly eject out into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday
morning. Surface low to slowly deepen as the wave moves through
the Ohio Valley.

Primary concern is the development of an WNW-ESE oriented band
of heavy precipitation on Tuesday night after midnight moving
quickly northeast across the forecast area through Wednesday
morning. This is on the nose of strong low level jet, with
accompanied very strong frontogenetical response and lateral
banding. Forecast soundings suggest that despite tremendous low
level warm advection, that this will be offset by the degree of
vertical motion. Dynamic cooling of arriving warm nose seems to
suggest a 3-5 hour period of heavy snow is likely to cross much
of the forecast area centered on the morning commute. This is
concerning for travel/impacts. This signal right now seems most
centered on southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana, but there is a
trend to involving more of Kentucky with successive receipt of
ensemble and deterministic runs. Have expanded the Winter Storm
Watch collaboratively southward with this forecast cycle, but
starting to feel strongly with late arriving ensemble
information this afternoon that more expansion - and
significantly so - is perhaps needed. While there is some
concern with warm nose walking right up to the 0C line in
forecast soundings that overall warm advection becomes so strong
that sleet/mix may dominate in northern Kentucky which would
greatly limit totals, but regardless, this would still make for
a treacherous morning commute so further shifts will need to
consider an expansion of the watch south into more of the Ohio
River area if ensemble trends hold. This is much less about
criteria - and much more about heavy />1" hour/ rates of
snow/sleet arriving right before and during the morning commute
for a large portion of the forecast area.

So not only do we have some uncertainty about the
magnitude of the warm advection and how this impacts
rates/amounts in this warm advection band, but there is
uncertainty on the path of the low moving through the forecast
area. A track up the west side of the forecast area would mean a
faster transition to rain and warming boundary layer from south
to north on Wednesday, while a track across southern Ohio would
slow this warming and delay improvement especially along/west of
I-71. A very complex storm and forecast adjustments to snow
totals and watch / warning alignments should be expected.

With the main deformation/comma head snows remaining /mostly/
west of the forecast area (west central Ohio and southeast
Indiana will get in on some of this), the primary concern with
this system for our forecast area is centered on this band of
heavy precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
especially as it relates to impacts surrounding the morning
commute.

I read that and all I see is waa waa waa. Warm air always wins around here. I remember a storm from 2 or so years ago that was forecasted w rain snow line about 75 miles south of me just 6 hours prior and I got all rain.

[Central Illinois]

interesting graphic for snowfall to date...

[Snow____]

5 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

I read that and all I see is waa waa waa. Warm air always wins around here. I remember a storm from 2 or so years ago that was forecasted w rain snow line about 75 miles south of me just 6 hours prior and I got all rain.

This is different as we know the warm air is coming. Nearly Everyone is predicted to get above freezing. I think it’s about how much snow we can get before that happens really. I mean forecast high here from NWS is 43 so we know we will get warm.

[Snow____]

Just now, Central Illinois said:

interesting graphic for snowfall to date...

Thanks for this. I always struggle to find how much snow we’ve gotten during the season.

[Hiramite]

Keep chopping SE 3/4 OH.

[easton229]

2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

interesting graphic for snowfall to date...

That’s a lot of pain in one photo.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

17 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

Thanks for this. I always struggle to find how much snow we’ve gotten during the season.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?data_type=obs&r=us_ov&p=nohrsc_seasnow&ds=nohrsc

Edited January 24, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[ClicheVortex2014]

Solid event even for Ohio

[Ohiobuckeye45]

total snow graphics always come before the "how" on weathermodels, so spoiler alert lol

 

[Hiramite]

The lazy man's, or is it the start man's, 21Z 10:1 SREF  is out:😀

The SREF Tracker will be out shortly after 8:00.

[NWOhioChaser]

6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

total snow graphics always come before the "how" on weathermodels, so spoiler alert lol

 

 

That seems just slightly more SE than this morning.

[BuckeyeGal]

[NWsnowhio]

@Hiramite Could please add Findlay to the SREF tracker for this one? Thank ya kindly!

[mafa]

2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Still holding pretty steady!

[Gerb131]

@Hiramite kzzv if you would please 

[Central Illinois]

7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

The lazy man's, or is it the start man's, 21Z 10:1 SREF  is out:😀

The SREF Tracker will be out shortly after 8:00.

Looks like MO really wins that run!

[Pghsnow]

Looks like one of my local news uses the IBM 4k model. 

https://www.ibm.com/weather/industries/cross-industry/graf

Edited January 24, 2023 by Pghsnow

[Ingyball]

SREF and NAM continue to show a bigger deal here. If that plays out, it'll be a nice coup for both models. The SREF does tend to be on the warmer side, but for this setup, I think that's okay. We warmed up a bit more than expected today, so that's something to note. I do expect most areas to radiate out again tonight so that could help with accumulations.

[Jpfalcon]

Ohio Spectrum News.

 

[Iceresistance]

KTWV has 4-8 inches of snow for my area, locally 10

[Hiramite]

Ok, the first SREF Tracker update:

15 and 21Z included.  I'll include the standard yada yada for any newcomers. The (XYZ) is the SREF station.

3.3" is a popular number with the first 4 locations.  Remember, these will be totals different than the 10:1 maps.  Any errors or omission, please let me know.

AND that's it for me tonight.  See you all in the AM.

 

SREF Plume Tracker®, the mean snow amount of the short range ensembles of various weather models.  Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay.

The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE   This link is for Cleveland, click on the dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.)

15z & 21Z SREF update.(also includes 15z, 21Z, 3Z, 9Z) 

Toledo (TOL)- 3.5/3.3/x/x   Cleveland (CLE)- 2.6/3.3/x/x     

Youngstown (YNG)- 2.8/3.3/x/x   

Findlay (FDY)- 3.2/3.3/x/x     Marion, OH (MNN)- 3.3/2.9/x/x     

Sidney, OH (ROD)- 3.7/3.6/x/x         

Dayton-S (MGY)- 2.5/2.7/x/x    Hamilton, OH (HAO)- 2.3/2.1/x/x   

Covington (CVG)- 2.0/1.7/x/x    

Columbus (CMH)- 2.2/2.4/x/x      Mt. Vernon, OH- 3.1/3.1/x/x     

Zanesville (ZZV)- 1.6/1.9/x/x       

Flint (FNT)- 3.5/4.7/x/x      Detroit (DTW)- 3.8/4.0/x/x          

Indy (IND)- 4.7/5.1/x/x     Decatur IL (DEC)- 5.0/6.0/x/x     

Shawnee OK (SNL)- 8.0/7.8/x/x

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Hiramite said:

Ok, the first SREF Tracker update:

15 and 21Z included.  I'll include the standard yada yada for any newcomers. The (XYZ) is the SREF station.

3.3" is a popular number with the first 4 locations.  Remember, these will be totals different than the 10:1 maps.  Any errors or omission, please let me know.

AND that's it for me tonight.  See you all in the AM.

 

SREF Plume Tracker®, the mean snow amount of the short range ensembles of various weather models.  Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay.

 

The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE   This link is for Cleveland, click on the dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.)

 

15z & 21Z SREF update.(also includes 15z, 21Z, 3Z, 9Z) 

 

Toledo (TOL)- 3.5/3.3/x/x   Cleveland (CLE)- 2.6/3.3/x/x     

Youngstown (YNG)- 2.8/3.3/x/x   

 

Findlay (FDY)- 3.2/3.3/x/x     Marion, OH (MNN)- 3.3/2.9/x/x     

Sidney, OH (ROD)- 3.7/3.6/x/x         

 

Dayton-S (MGY)- 2.5/2.7/x/x    Hamilton, OH (HAO)- 2.3/2.1/x/x   

Covington (CVG)- 2.0/1.7/x/x    

 

Columbus (CMH)- 2.2/2.4/x/x      Mt. Vernon, OH- 3.1/3.1/x/x     

Zanesville (ZZV)- 1.6/1.9/x/x       

 

Flint (FNT)- 3.5/4.7/x/x      Detroit (DTW)- 3.8/4.0/x/x          

 

Indy (IND)- 4.7/5.1/x/x     Decatur IL (DEC)- 5.0/6.0/x/x     

Shawnee OK (SNL)- 8.0/7.8/x/x

 

My area has gone down slightly, but that was expected given slight deviation.

 

Shawnee works fine since it has a OK Mesonet station with it too!