January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

all my Ohioans trying to withstand the body blows right now lol, can we hang on for 24 more hours

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

ok wait a minute, this has me questioning the entire integrity of pivotals members maps

 

 

I'm very distraught over this lol.....I see now that pivotal uses a grid to plot the members.....where as WM.com plots them as is. I'm stunned by how this is done and completely skews how the data is viewed. Its no wonder it appeared the ensembles didn't match the OP on pivotal....they actually do

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

haha!!!!!! thats fantastic

 

Sref: MNN

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[CIWeather]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I'm very distraught over this lol.....I see now that pivotal uses a grid to plot the members.....where as WM.com plots them as is. I'm stunned by how this is done and completely skews how the data is viewed. Its no wonder it appeared the ensembles didn't match the OP on pivotal....they actually do

Yeah, but I can completely understand your frustration. That definitely depicts an inaccurate picture of what is being shown.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS

 

[BuckeyeGal]

14 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

Love it. ☃️

I am on the southern edge of Delaware county. There isn’t one that matches me exactly so the one you use for Columbus is cool. 😊

[cperry29]

Even if this storm doesn’t pan out for some people, we have this behemoth next week 🙂

[junior]

Morning commute Wednesday will be fun 

[RadioWX]

IND AFD from this afternoon:

Spoiler

WINTER STORM WATCH across most of central Indiana from Late Tuesday
Night Through Wednesday Afternoon

- Heavy snow, 3-7 inches expected.
- Highest snow amounts along north and west of Indianapolis
- Warm ground temperatures and rain mixing in will limit the overall
snow depth by the end of the event

*****************
Synoptic Pattern:
*****************

Confidence continues to increase in a deepening low pressure system
tracking from northern Texas into the Midwest with that will
continue to go cyclogenesis as it tracks to the northeast.  Morning
ensemble runs have a tight cluster for the low that passes along the
Ohio River during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The trend has been
a slightly further south track which may move the deformation axis
of higher snow a bit further southeast. The exact strength of the
low remains somewhat uncertain with a wider model spread on the
strength.

The biggest uncertainty with this system will be how the warm air
ahead of the system is eroded and where the rain/snow line sets up.
Model surface temperatures are right around the 32 degree point with
a steady state temperature spread from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday.  Temperatures aloft will be subfreezing with ice
nucleation present and keep precipitation type just rain and snow.

Much of the snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday will form
outside of the dendritic growth layer which will cut snow ratios
before colder air arrives Wednesday morning.  Will gradually
increase the snow ratios from around 8:1 during the overnight hours
to 10:1 by mid morning on Wednesday.

The precipitation will likely set up in two different waves.  The
initial wave will be focused south and east of Indianapolis with the
main nose of warmer air.  Snow will be the more likely precipitation
type with some rain mixed in, especially further southeast but with
low snow ratios.  The deformation band with slightly higher snow
ratios will then settle in after daybreak with the focus for higher
snow amounts across the northwestern counties.

***********
Impacts:
***********

The period of most intense impacts currently looks to be the morning
hours Wednesday as colder air arrives in the mid levels and brings
the dendritic growth zone into play. Snow will be falling on roads
that will be generally in the low to mid 30 degree range which will
allow for some melting as it falls and limit the overall snow depth
even if 6-8 inches of snow falls.  Intense rates are likely at times
Wednesday which will help to overcome the warmer temperatures, but
think that the axis of heavier snow will be in the 4-6 inch range
when it is all said and done with 3-5 inches in the areas outside of
the axis.  Areas further to the south where the snow will be earlier
in the morning and mixed with rain are likely to see closer to 1-3
inches

***********
Conclusion:
***********

A deepening low pressure system is expected to progress through the
Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will provide
widespread precipitation over central Indiana.  Rain is likely to
mix in with snow south of Indianapolis with better confidence for
snow to the north. The highest snow accumulations currently look to
be along the I-69 corridor north of Indianapolis, but relatively
warm temperatures and the rain mix will limit the final snow depth
even with impressive accumulations.  Snow amounts of 4-7 inches are
possible in the heaviest axis with 3-5 inches outside of that area.
Areas south of Indianapolis may only see 1-3 inches.

Regarding headlines; plan on maintaining the Winter Storm Watch with
no major changes for now.  When confidence increases in the
rain/snow line and axis of higher snow, Winter Storm
Warnings/Advisories will be issued accordingly.

 

[Pghsnow]

Just now, cperry29 said:

Even if this storm doesn’t pan out for some people, we have this behemoth next week 🙂

 

Yea it will either end up suppressed and too far east or come west and run right over WPa... 😂

[cperry29]

2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Yea it will either end up suppressed and too far east or come west and run right over WPa... 😂

Never know…. Gotta keep chopping away as @Hiramite posted lol

[RobB]

Sorry if this has already been posted.

 

ILN AFD:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Quiet weather during the day Tuesday as strong shortwave trough
digs through the base of the longer wave trough to the west and
begins to rapidly eject out into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday
morning. Surface low to slowly deepen as the wave moves through
the Ohio Valley.

Primary concern is the development of an WNW-ESE oriented band
of heavy precipitation on Tuesday night after midnight moving
quickly northeast across the forecast area through Wednesday
morning. This is on the nose of strong low level jet, with
accompanied very strong frontogenetical response and lateral
banding. Forecast soundings suggest that despite tremendous low
level warm advection, that this will be offset by the degree of
vertical motion. Dynamic cooling of arriving warm nose seems to
suggest a 3-5 hour period of heavy snow is likely to cross much
of the forecast area centered on the morning commute. This is
concerning for travel/impacts. This signal right now seems most
centered on southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana, but there is a
trend to involving more of Kentucky with successive receipt of
ensemble and deterministic runs. Have expanded the Winter Storm
Watch collaboratively southward with this forecast cycle, but
starting to feel strongly with late arriving ensemble
information this afternoon that more expansion - and
significantly so - is perhaps needed. While there is some
concern with warm nose walking right up to the 0C line in
forecast soundings that overall warm advection becomes so strong
that sleet/mix may dominate in northern Kentucky which would
greatly limit totals, but regardless, this would still make for
a treacherous morning commute so further shifts will need to
consider an expansion of the watch south into more of the Ohio
River area if ensemble trends hold. This is much less about
criteria - and much more about heavy />1" hour/ rates of
snow/sleet arriving right before and during the morning commute
for a large portion of the forecast area.

So not only do we have some uncertainty about the
magnitude of the warm advection and how this impacts
rates/amounts in this warm advection band, but there is
uncertainty on the path of the low moving through the forecast
area. A track up the west side of the forecast area would mean a
faster transition to rain and warming boundary layer from south
to north on Wednesday, while a track across southern Ohio would
slow this warming and delay improvement especially along/west of
I-71. A very complex storm and forecast adjustments to snow
totals and watch / warning alignments should be expected.

With the main deformation/comma head snows remaining /mostly/
west of the forecast area (west central Ohio and southeast
Indiana will get in on some of this), the primary concern with
this system for our forecast area is centered on this band of
heavy precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
especially as it relates to impacts surrounding the morning
commute.

[Pros3lyte]

19 minutes ago, junior said:

Morning commute Wednesday will be fun 

Ugh. My wife is flying out of Flint with my 9 month old Wednesday morning at 7am. It’s about an hour drive to get there so she’ll be leaving around 430/5am. 
 

I’m thinking if the roads don’t stop them, the airline might, with a delay or cancellation!

[CleLakeEffect]

44 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

CGF or CLE if the first isn’t possible. Thank you!

[ak9971]

46 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

Cincinnati please! Northern Warren county technically but Cincinnati/Mason is closest big city. 

[snowlover2]

26 minutes ago, junior said:

Morning commute Wednesday will be fun 

Don't remind me.

[Hiramite]

6 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

Cincinnati please! Northern Warren county technically but Cincinnati/Mason is closest big city. 

I'll put you down for Hamilton as that appears to be the closest SREF station location.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hiramite

[Pros3lyte]

54 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I used to go to the Lumberjack competitions down in Nelsonville years ago.  They had an expression that I use a lot.  "Sometimes you get the pumpkin, sometimes you get the bone".  That is, sometimes the wood is soft (things go your way), sometimes the wood hard (things don't go your way).  All you can do is keep chopping away.

I don't know how applicable this is, lol, but it was what came to mind for these types of events.

 

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

My brother in law works as a foreman for a tree service and goes to these all the time- he says they’re a blast!

[Hiramite]

11 minutes ago, CleLakeEffect said:

CGF or CLE if the first isn’t possible. Thank you!

CLE is the only SREF  location in Cuyahoga County so that's what it will be.

[Kerbs]

1 hour ago, Hiramite said:

Meanwhile, don't forget your SREF orders!!  Only 2 so far.

 

ROD please!

[BuckeyeGal]

Okay, y'all. I went to look at the different approaching energies for this weekend.. and I'm wondering if we just do one thread for both of them? The clipper for Fri-Sat is quickly followed by a larger system. Should I keep them separate or combine? What say you?

[Snow____]

23 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I'll put you down for Hamilton as that appears to be the closest SREF station location.

I’m Cincy as well. But I think the closest for me is Covington from the past of you posting them.  But if they have a Cincy one sign me up.

[JayPSU]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

Okay, y'all. I went to look at the different approaching energies for this weekend.. and I'm wondering if we just do one thread for both of them? The clipper for Fri-Sat is quickly followed by a larger system. Should I keep them separate or combine? What say you?

Together, please.  😀   So much easier!

[Snow____]

RAP going North was a body blow I wasn’t anticipating lol. Still looking at the front end thump.. RAP actually took me to 40 degrees after the snow 🤦🏽‍♂️.

[TheBlizzardOf1978]