January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Grace]

19z RAP compared to 18z 3km NAM

 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Grace said:

19z RAP compared to 18z 3km NAM

 

Wow. That looks like a massive difference.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3km shift 

[Hiramite]

19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

The NAM just went even further NW lol tracks to S. IL now

I don't see too much difference in the track in that area, but the precip shield has definitely shifted north...edit....which is the important part, lol.

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hiramite

[Jpfalcon]

NAM is starting to enter its useful time period so can't entirely throw it out even if it really only has GFS support. Probably start to see some clarity from some models on the 0z runs this evening and almost certainly by the 12z tomorrow morning.

[beaver56]

I don't like what I am seeing for all of us on the south and east sides of the track.  Just a gut feeling.  Still time though and nothing is near definite.

Edited January 23, 2023 by beaver56

[CleLakeEffect]

3 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

I don't like what I am seeing for all of us on the south and east sides of the track.  Just a gut feeling.

I hate where I'm sitting in NE OH this time around. Not expecting much and hoping for a pleasant surprise. 

[Cheezemm2]

11 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I don't see too much difference in the track in that area, but the precip shield has definitely shifted north...edit....which is the important part, lol.

 

Snowpack still on the ground and warm air with stubborn surface temps, seeing the red/orange flare up had to show up at some point.

[Jpfalcon]

Watches out for extreme SE MI from DTX. Lenawee, Monroe, and Wayne counties. 5-8" total.

[ncinthenext3]

Just now, Jpfalcon said:

Watches out for extreme SE MI from DTX. Lenawee, Monroe, and Wayne counties. 5-8" total.

Looks like the evening crew said OK, I'll post it.

[junior]

WSW for 2-4” and some sleet here. 

[easton229]

2 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Watches out for extreme SE MI from DTX. Lenawee, Monroe, and Wayne counties. 5-8" total.

Well that sucks for me in Oakland county.

[Hiramite]

This appears to be the latest/up to date...maybe.

 

[Hiramite]

As of 3:55PM:

 

[Hiramite]

Refresher for WSWarning Criteria in the Central Region.  You guys in MI have a "high bar".

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hiramite

[easton229]

3 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Well that sucks for me in Oakland county.

The AFD mentions that there could be expansion of the watch area before the line is drawn on WSW and WWA.

[Pghsnow]

My profile pic has come to fruition. Maybe time for a change...

[Jpfalcon]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Refresher for WSWarning Criteria.  You guys in MI have a "high bar".

Not gospel though. WSW here for the pre-Christmas event that was pretty much nothing snow wise. DTX/GRR typically consider other factors (wind, temps, etc.) when issuing these. Most of us can agree on here though that DTX is probably one of the most conservative NWS offices when it comes to winter storms.

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Not gospel though. WSW here for the pre-Christmas event that was pretty much nothing snow wise. DTX/GRR typically consider other factors (wind, temps, etc.) when issuing these. Most of us can agree on here though that DTX is probably one of the most conservative NWS offices when it comes to winter storms.

True on the "not gospel" part.  We had some brief discussion here during that pre-Christmas storm regarding the other factors.

[MesoscaleBanding]

18z NAM vs. 18z RGEM 🤣

[Hiramite]

CLE AFD out....its a long one.

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

18z NAM vs. 18z RGEM 🤣

 

[beaver56]

1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

Definitely would be good with the NAM being off its rocker!

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just now, beaver56 said:

Definitely would be good with the NAM being off its rocker!

NAM has proven untrustworthy more times than I can count when it's outside of the 12-24 hour range...and even then, it's had some epic fails. Interesting times ahead.

[cperry29]

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

18z NAM vs. 18z RGEM 🤣

It’s always those 18z runs… the model craps itself for some reason.