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January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

MesoscaleBanding

By MesoscaleBanding
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Posted by Ingyball,

10 minutes ago, OSUWx2 said: Are we trusting 10:1 snow maps over Kuchera?    Kuchera does horrible with heavy snow when your DGZ depth is otherwise good (2500 feet or higher). When you have heavy snow falling, there isn't a ton of melting that occurs, especially when you start talking about 2" per hour rates. For those of us who will be getting heavy snow at night, 10:1 may actually be too low. Dodge City had 17:1 ratios despite surface temps hovering in the 30 to 34 range. Obviou

Excellent discussion re: ratios for this event.

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Wxwatchman
Wxwatchman

Actual future zoomed in footage of me on that run... Life on the edge 😄

SOMOSnow
SOMOSnow

Some of you all probably wondered where I went. Got busy with things. Ended up with near 6 inches here. Higher elevations generally got 6+. Some spots in region got up to a foot. Most locations in cor

easton229
easton229

Measured just shy of 5.5” and still coming down at an inch an hour clip for another couple hours. 7” should be attainable.

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NWOhioChaser Mentor

NWOhioChaser

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, beaver56 said:

Sorry, but trusting the GFS is very hard to do.  I think most of the models are pretty inconsistent.  The CMC could be very legit on the narrow band aspect as temps are going to be a major factor for sure.  I will wake up Wednesday, God willing, and go about business either way.

GFS has been terrible this winter IMO. Wants to amplify too soon. It did this with the pre-Christmas storm even with a near record HP in place. I agree with you that the CMC has a good idea that heavier amounts will be in a much narrower swath than what most models show. My worry overall lies in the combination of marginal temps with the potential storms down south.
 

 I think IceRisistance mentioned earlier that models were underestimating the cold in the storm. Personally, I don’t see that to be the case. But perhaps that a downsignal that I’ve yet to experience. Temps forecasted are right on par with recorded temps. (36 forecasted, 36.4 observerd)

Personally I think ground temps is what is going to kill us most in the end. 

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Cheezemm2 Contributor

Cheezemm2

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2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

So many lines and dots...

For now, we'll go with a play-by-play.....the 12Z NAM is currently just west of the 12Z GFS for the entire track. 

I really like those maps, you'll have some cool storm history after you're done with them!  I'm just being needy.

As much as models drive me nuts, I do like when there's a "winner" and the rest cave.  That has to feel good to model author(s)!

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Hiramite Grand Master

Hiramite

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FWIW, in looking back over the Low Trackers, I started with the 1-21-23 0Z run (2.5 days ago) and here are my observations.  (I believe this was prior to 'sampling' ?)

The Euro essentially hasn't moved.  The Canadian has moved east about 100 miles early and since held pretty steady.  The GFS has moved west about 100 miles after Day 1 and held its ground.  Who will be correct, if any???

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Central Illinois Mentor

Central Illinois

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4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

FWIW, in looking back over the Low Trackers, I started with the 1-21-23 0Z run (2.5 days ago) and here are my observations.  (I believe this was prior to 'sampling' ?)

The Euro essentially hasn't moved.  The Canadian has moved east about 100 miles early and since held pretty steady.  The GFS has moved west about 100 miles after Day 1 and held its ground.  Who will be correct, if any???

NAM also on the west track FWIW

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Pros3lyte Collaborator

Pros3lyte

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4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

FWIW, in looking back over the Low Trackers, I started with the 1-21-23 0Z run (2.5 days ago) and here are my observations.  (I believe this was prior to 'sampling' ?)

The Euro essentially hasn't moved.  The Canadian has moved east about 100 miles early and since held pretty steady.  The GFS has moved west about 100 miles after Day 1 and held its ground.  Who will be correct, if any???

Basing this off of no specific knowlege or wisdom other than the feeling that The Euro is more often the winner on the track, I feel like its probably going to be the Euro with the correct track this time around. It just feels like its generally more accurate on the track for most storms. 

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NWOhioChaser Mentor

NWOhioChaser

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8 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

FWIW, in looking back over the Low Trackers, I started with the 1-21-23 0Z run (2.5 days ago) and here are my observations.  (I believe this was prior to 'sampling' ?)

The Euro essentially hasn't moved.  The Canadian has moved east about 100 miles early and since held pretty steady.  The GFS has moved west about 100 miles after Day 1 and held its ground.  Who will be correct, if any???

I never gave you credit before but thank you for providing this very detailed information on how models behave. 
 

Your observations and knowledge is one of the ways that I personally learn as an enthusiast.

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CleLakeEffect Contributor

CleLakeEffect

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1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said:

I never gave you credit before but thank you for providing this very detailed information on how models behave. 
 

Your observations and knowledge is one of the ways that I personally learn as an enthusiast.

SREF tracker too. Hiramite for MVP

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Hiramite Grand Master

Hiramite

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Point & click bumped up the snow a tad here in NE OH before going to rain.  CLE's 3:00 Expected Snow Map update still a work in progress although High & Low are completed.

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Hiramite Grand Master

Hiramite

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7 minutes ago, CleLakeEffect said:

SREF tracker too. Hiramite for MVP

I kind of put the SREF's on the back burner with the Pivotal SREF 10:1 snow maps available.  Maybe do them by request only instead of having so many locations???

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