January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

12Z Low Party Tracker.

Very little change over the last 24 hours. The Euro, CMC and Ukie are on the exact same track once again. Pressures are pretty darn close too.

 

[mafa]

3 minutes ago, RobB said:

Euro FWIW

It’s worth everything! 😛

[Hiramite]

IMO, not the snowfall one would expect with such a track.  Lots of front end snow then the snow shield weakens once the storm moves into NE OH.  But as the say in sports...."that's why you play the game".  Time will tell.

[FortySixAnd32]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

IMO, not the snowfall one would expect with such a track.  Lots of front end snow then the snow shield weakens once the storm moves into NE OH.  But as the say in sports...."that's why you play the game".  Time will tell.

 

Why you gotta draw the red line right over my house??? 

[FortySixAnd32]

Does anyone have a handle on the wind dynamics for this event???

[Hiramite]

1 minute ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Why you gotta draw the red line right over my house??? 

 

[RobB]

63 hour SREF FWIW

[FortySixAnd32]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

 

Brilliant sir. Brilliant I say!!

[Hiramite]

21 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

South east trend starting?

Not to my eyes.  Actually in our neck of the woods, the low doesn't move from the 0Z run, pretty amazing to watch.

 

[Hiramite]

23 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Does anyone have a handle on the wind dynamics for this event???

Since I had the Euro up, I used it.  Doesn’t appear to be too windy….

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hiramite

[NWOhioChaser]

31 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

12Z Low Party Tracker.

Very little change over the last 24 hours. The Euro, CMC and Ukie are on the exact same track once again. Pressures are pretty darn close too.

 

Spilt the difference between GFS and Euro and call it a day? Seems like a good bet to me. Would be quite the spread the wealth event if that panned out. At least it would make the I-71 folks feel a bit safer with the mixing issue. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[RobB]

Canadian ensemble mean snows

[Central Illinois]

15z SREF 10:1 Mean

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

this is the frame where the spread is still the greatest and probably affects the biggest % of posters (IL,IN,OH,MI)

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MesoscaleBanding]

6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

this is the frame where the spread is still the greatest and probably affects the biggest % of posters

 

Just eyeballing, but that's still like a 200-250 mile spread...big time implications - long way to go with this one even though we're within 36 hours of snow falling here.

[Jpfalcon]

Watches up for NW Ohio, 4-7" with mentions of a light glaze of ice.

[MesoscaleBanding]

FWIW - very little, if any melting, has occurred here today. Temp still hasn't gotten above 32 with thick cloud cover. Solid, compacted blanket of 3-5" of high water content snow - it's not going to melt much Tuesday either if the low 30s & mostly cloudy skies verify. Still think this might have an impact on temperatures & maybe even influence the SLP track once it gets up this way. 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Warning in effect for my area! 4-6 inches of snow, locally higher.

[Cheezemm2]

2 hours ago, Hiramite said:

First mid-range map.

12z NAM and RGEM, 15Z RAP.

Still no royal blue, -2 points, B+  (still want to see the NAM on the long rangers since it usually scores in the 48 hour range and then see if the CMC/Ukie/Euro/GFS correct to it!

Edited January 23, 2023 by Cheezemm2

[Mulaman984]

4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

FWIW - very little, if any melting, has occurred here today. Temp still hasn't gotten above 32 with thick cloud cover. Solid, compacted blanket of 3-5" of high water content snow - it's not going to melt much Tuesday either if the low 30s & mostly cloudy skies verify. Still think this might have an impact on temperatures & maybe even influence the SLP track once it gets up this way. 

 

Very similar. I’m interested in what it looks like in NKY @NKYSnowLover, but across the river in cincy area, it’s been overcast with flurries, low to mid 30’s with a 2-4” snow pack. 

[Cheezemm2]

13 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

Here's to hoping the Euro isn't sniffing glue.  Still feels like a I7I slop zone storm to me, per usual.

[Blitz]

14 minutes ago, Cheezemm2 said:

Here's to hoping the Euro isn't sniffing glue.  Still feels like a I7I slop zone storm to me, per usual.

If I recall, the Euro nailed the Christmas Eve storm last month from 3-4 days out….at least for the OHV. Is that correct?

[Hiramite]

18 minutes ago, Cheezemm2 said:

Still no royal blue, -2 points, B+  (still want to see the NAM on the long rangers since it usually scores in the 48 hour range and then see if the CMC/Ukie/Euro/GFS correct to it!

So many lines and dots...

For now, we'll go with a play-by-play.....the 12Z NAM is currently just west of the 12Z GFS for the entire track.