January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

How did the RAP do with yesterday’s insanity?

Here the RAP from the night before (Saturday).

Here's the observed as per Pivotal.

[Iceresistance]

Guess who's getting the Oklahoma Bullseye on the 12z CMC? 😆

[Jeffro]

20 minutes ago, Grace said:

8 inches with an hour or two of backside sprinkles? I’d take it 😛. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Just now, Jeffro said:

8 inches with an hour or two of backside sprinkles? I’d take it 😛. 

yeah I've never been rooting for a dry slot before but I really hope these NAM/RAP dryslot solutions verify

[beaver56]

Sorry, but trusting the GFS is very hard to do.  I think most of the models are pretty inconsistent.  The CMC could be very legit on the narrow band aspect as temps are going to be a major factor for sure.  I will wake up Wednesday, God willing, and go about business either way.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

A little late on the 6z EPS post but, trying to set my expectations and do see  support for the GFS OP track now. Then you've got your "so your tellin me theres a chance" handful of members in KY/WV border

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Hiramite]

First mid-range map.

12z NAM and RGEM, 15Z RAP.

[Grace]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

A little late on the 6z EPS post but, trying to set my expectations and do see  support for the GFS OP track now. Then you've got your "so your tellin me theres a chance" handful of members in KY/WV border

 

That 2nd cluster is interesting...over WV, Oh, ky

[RobB]

UKMet FWIW

[Snow____]

8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

A little late on the 6z EPS post but, trying to set my expectations and do see  support for the GFS OP track now. Then you've got your "so your tellin me theres a chance" handful of members in KY/WV border

 

That’s a pretty strong cluster. I’m interested in that. 

[Hiramite]

Just now, Snow____ said:

That’s a pretty strong cluster. I’m interested in that. 

I wonder if voting on it will matter? 🤔

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, RobB said:

UKMet FWIW

That’s a far cry from last night.

[Snow____]

Just now, Hiramite said:

I wonder if voting on it will matter? 🤔

I cast my ballot 5 minutes ago 😂😂

[Ohiobuckeye45]

the track of the UK seems to be aligned with 50% consensus but the QPF lacks

[PowellWX]

6 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

That’s a pretty strong cluster. I’m interested in that. 

Maybe the 6z is the start of jumping ship to the southeast!

[Indygirl]

9 minutes ago, PowellWX said:

Maybe the 6z is the start of jumping ship to the southeast!

Which would mean higher snow totals. Right? 

[PowellWX]

Just now, Indygirl said:

Which would mean higher snow totals. Right? 

Yes, higher totals further southeast than what the medium range models are showing.

[Hiramite]

6 minutes ago, Indygirl said:

Which would mean higher snow totals. Right? 

Probably not for you though as you're in the bullseye right now.  No need to panic though, it's just wishful thinking at this point.

[Hiramite]

1 hour ago, Wnwniner said:

At what point in time do we start putting more stock in the short range models rather than the long range models?  18z runs tonight?

I don't think anyone answered this yet.

IMO, I don't think there's a cut-off time and it's probably a matter of personal preference.  I think one kind of gradually weans oneself from the long range towards the mid then short range as the storm approaches. 

Others feel free to chime in.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Hmmm - not sure what to think yet. I'm inclined to toss every single global run as they will generally suck with important details (such as exact temperatures). I'll lean on the higher-res, short-range models from here on out. This is a big storm - no way these models have a solid handle on things yet. There will be surprises with QPF, front-end snows, the ULL snowfall as well as the general track over the next 36 hours. Just my $.02 for now

[RadioWX]

Read a good AFD from Indy yesterday.   Few factors we have to remember, especially for Central IL and Central IN.  Ratios in their opinion will be more like 7 or 8 to 1 and not 10 to 1.  Ground temps are still warm, which will hurt accumulation..  No snowpack like many of our Ohio folks have.  Could honestly see these 7-10 inch model outputs in reality be more 4-6 inch.   Still a great snow for our area.

[Pghsnow]

After a very disappointing storm for my area yesterday, NWS is not very enthused

 

[RobB]

Euro FWIW

[Hassaywx1223]

1 minute ago, RobB said:

Euro FWIW

South east trend starting?

[BuckeyeGal]

1 minute ago, RobB said:

Euro FWIW

Yes, it had some nice banding on the southern edge this time around.. and it also matched the dry slot idea more.