January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

seems Ironic these are the 2 paths between the GFS/NAM and RGEM

 

[Iceresistance]

 

[Nanigator]

Watching here in Eastern MO near the St Chas / Warren / Franklin County lines. Looks like we're in for 3-5" depending on the temp!

[Snow____]

Again. I’ll take the GFS. I would love a good 3-6 inch dump even if it washes away. I would love that dry slot after the snow to happen though 😂

[Ohiobuckeye45]

ICON

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GFS

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CMC

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[RobB]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

CMC

 

Definitely one of those rare occasions where much of the thread area will see snows.  Obviously, highest totals will be limited but hard to complain overall.  Assuming this is how things work out.

[Hiramite]

9 minutes ago, Nanigator said:

Watching here in Eastern MO near the St Chas / Warren / Franklin County lines. Looks like we're in for 3-5" depending on the temp!

Welcome to the forum!

[JayPSU]

4 minutes ago, RobB said:

Definitely one of those rare occasions where much of the thread area will see snows.  Obviously, highest totals will be limited but hard to complain overall.  Assuming this is how things work out.

I’m very curious to see how the specific amounts of the front end thump evolve in future short range runs…

[Snow____]

All I gotta say is if the RAP ends up being right I’d be happy 😂😂

Edited January 23, 2023 by Snow____

[Wnwniner]

Just now, JayPSU said:

I’m very curious to see how the specific amounts of the front end thump evolve in future short range runs…

At what point in time do we start putting more stock in the short range models rather than the long range models?  18z runs tonight?

[Grace]

[RobB]

Just now, JayPSU said:

I’m very curious to see how the specific amounts of the front end thump evolve in future short range runs…

Totally agree.  I definitely will be following the short rangers for that particular aspect.  Good luck!

[Nanigator]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Welcome to the forum!

Thank you! I could have swore I posted here last year but I guess I haven't yet. I was on WxDisco for years and left when most others did. I then followed thru the discord, and then after this site was thankfully created! I love the weather and all you all on this forum and hope this little system gets us our first frozen precip of '23!  Best of luck to everyone! 🙂

[JayPSU]

1 minute ago, RobB said:

Totally agree.  I definitely will be following the short rangers for that particular aspect.  Good luck!

You too!

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Nanigator said:

Thank you! I could have swore I posted here last year but I guess I haven't yet. I was on WxDisco for years and left when most others did. I then followed thru the discord, and then after this site was thankfully created! I love the weather and all you all on this forum and hope this little system gets us our first frozen precip of '23!  Best of luck to everyone! 🙂

Maybe you were on WXDisco previously?

[NWOhioChaser]

Juicy runs so far today. I have to wonder how much moisture this storm will initially have and how much of an affect the southern storms will have as it progresses.

[BuckeyeGal]

How did the RAP do with yesterday’s insanity?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Hiramite]

I like Scott, but his labeling of snow maps leaves a bit to be desired.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS, thumbs down here

[Grace]

9 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Another big take away from the 15z is that the energy associated with the ULL trended east. Whatever truly occurs with the ULL is the wildcard in all of this. 

One variable that leads to the 3km, ARW, HRRR, & RAP to have the solutions they do is that they track the ULL further SE. Now it's just one factor, there are other factors out ahead on front end of system that leads to tHat outcome as well. 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Grace

[Wnwniner]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Is it me or does that spread get worse/wider in 12z?  I would think it would be getting a tighter spread at this point.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

Is it me or does that spread get worse/wider in 12z?  I would think it would be getting a tighter spread at this point.

well oddity of it is, the GFS for several runs was way west of the ENS, the ENS have since started coming west to the OP, which its usually the opposite. So I could see why the spread is still a little disbursed