January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Indygirl]

Wow!! Watches are really going up fast, as are the predicted snow totals for Indy/north! 
 

[Grace]

15z RAP

 

 

6z HRRR

Edited January 23, 2023 by Grace

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Hour 60 of the 3km is similar with the dry slot vs rain

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Iceresistance]

This is no longer a speculation

[Hiramite]

0Z Low Party Tracker:

Since yesterday’s 12Z, the GFS has held steady, the Euro and CMC ticked west, the Ukie ticked east.

[Grace]

27 minutes ago, Grace said:

15z RAP

 

 

6z HRRR

 

BTW, I did not post these because I think they're correct. Just throwing it out there. 

If 12z HRRR is that far south then it will have my attention. 

[Hiramite]

Question for the group.  For this storm, starting with today's 12Z, what models do you want to see on the Low Party Tracker:

1. The same 4 (GFS, CMC, Euro, Ukie)

2.  RGEM/RDPS, NAM and latest available RAP

3.  None of the above

[Grace]

6z EPS

0Z EPS

[Grace]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Question for the group.  For this storm, starting with today's 12Z, what models do you want to see on the Low Party Tracker:

1. The same 4 (GFS, CMC, Euro, Ukie)

2.  RGEM/RDPS, NAM and latest available RAP

3.  None of the above

 

Lol...duh, for me & I'm sure I'm alone, I'd live to see RAP & HRRR not change. Not expecting it but absolutely that's what I'm pulling for. 😀

[Hiramite]

 Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion.....for us in the warm sector, see bold at bottom.

 

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

359 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...Lower Great Lakes, northern Mid-Atlantic, & Northeast... Days 2-3... This textbook (from a synoptic and mesoscale standpoint) winter storm makes its way into the Mid-South Tuesday night with a large shield of precipitation running out ahead of it along the warm front, as well as on its north and west flank where the deformation axis sets up. At 250mb, diffluent regions of two jet streaks (one over West Texas, the other over the northern Great Lakes) will provide excellent vertical ascent aloft to strengthen a surface low tracking north and east. In addition, a robust 850mb jet is supplying the necessary moisture, while coinciding with strong 290K isentropic glide and strong frontogenetical forcing at 850-700mb along the warm front. Dynamic cooling from the heavy precipitation rates and strogn omega aloft will result in periods of heavy snow throughout the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Areas on the northwest track of the 850mb low are likely to witness the best snowfall rates with a sufficiently cold thermal layer and very saturated DGZs. NAEFS shows >90th climatological percentile values of mean specific humidity in the 500mb layer throughout the region by 06Z Wednesday and within the deformation axis, and this only continues to grow in size into the day on Wednesday as heavy snowfall moves into eastern IL, central IN, and into southern MI and northwest OH. Latest WPC PWPF shows 50-70% probabilities for >6" of snowfall in these areas between Wednesday 00Z - Thursday 00Z. Farther east, the initial front end "thump" of heavy snow via intense WAA will give way to a 700-300mb dry slot racing through the Upper Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This area is among the lowest in confidence regarding snowfall amounts due to what should be a heavy initial band of snow, followed by warmer/drier mid-level air rushing in and shutting off the ability to produce heavy snow.

[BuckeyeGal]

13 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Question for the group.  For this storm, starting with today's 12Z, what models do you want to see on the Low Party Tracker:

1. The same 4 (GFS, CMC, Euro, Ukie)

2.  RGEM/RDPS, NAM and latest available RAP

3.  None of the above

I would love to see the short-rangers added in, too! 

[Hiramite]

20 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Lol...duh, for me & I'm sure I'm alone, I'd live to see RAP & HRRR not change. Not expecting it but absolutely that's what I'm pulling for. 😀

I was referring to the map of the low tracks that I've been posting...what models to show.

 

9 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I would love to see the short-rangers added in, too! 

"Adding" wasn't an option, lol.   Maybe I can make a second map with the short/mid range models.

I'm heading out for a bit....

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hiramite

[BuckeyeGal]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I was referring to the map of the low tracks that I've been posting...what models to show.

 

"Adding" wasn't an option, lol.   Maybe I can make a second map with the short/mid range models.

I'm heading out for a bit....

Whoops. I need more coffee. 😄

[Wnwniner]

5 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I was referring to the map of the low tracks that I've been posting...what models to show.

 

"Adding" wasn't an option, lol.   Maybe I can make a second map with the short/mid range models.

I'm heading out for a bit....

Please only show the ones that are good for me lol.

 

Short rangers over long rangers pls. Especially since the last 2 It seems like they did better in this time frame.

[BuckeyeGal]

Come. On. Snowcover. I'm cheerleading you on to push this suck ever-so-slightly to the East! PUH-LEASE.

[Jeffro]

I’m so used to being on the rain/snow line that it doesn’t even phase me any more 😭. 
 

I wish our northern and western posters the best with this system. 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I'm not really in to the whole front end thing if rain comes in and washes it out within hours....however if I knew it was going to be front end and the WAA was going to be a dry slot that allowed the snow to cling to life and stick around I'll be more excited. That's pretty well depicted by the GFS 👎vs. NAM👍

The front end thump ending with drizzle coinciding with the warm push is a common occurrence way over here in wound up storms. I can remember shoveling many a storms in my t shirt once the dry slot moves in.  

 

[Cheezemm2]

30 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Question for the group.  For this storm, starting with today's 12Z, what models do you want to see on the Low Party Tracker:

1. The same 4 (GFS, CMC, Euro, Ukie)

2.  RGEM/RDPS, NAM and latest available RAP

3.  None of the above

I would like the Ukie in green or royal blue instead. 😆

Seriously think it might be cool to keep the ones you have and add the NAM once in the 48-60 hour range so not only do we get NAM'd but the other models do too.

 

[RobB]

2 minutes ago, Cheezemm2 said:

I would like the Ukie in green or royal blue instead. 😆

Seriously think it might be cool to keep the ones you have and add the NAM once in the 48-60 hour range so not only do we get NAM'd but the other models do too.

 

I second this suggestion.  This would work for me! 👍

[Indygirl]

10 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Come. On. Snowcover. I'm cheerleading you on to push this suck ever-so-slightly to the East! PUH-LEASE.

I think I’d fall DOWN if Indy actually got 9”!! Lol!

 

[NWsnowhio]

Riding the line here in NW Ohio. Long write-up in the AFD from Cleveland this morning in spoiler. 

Of note:

- Current thinking is low moves from Marion to Sandusky. 
- Current snowpack could lead to longer period of frozen precipitation vs switch to all rain in warm sector. 
- Not pulling trigger on any headlines for a couple more cycles because even as small as a 20-mile shift would be difference between warning and advisory criteria for the area. Want to avoid “any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations.”

Probably all good calls at this point for this area. 
 

Spoiler

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A potent low pressure system and winter storm will impact the central United States on Tuesday night and this system will move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing a wide range of weather and possible impacts for the middle of the week. This forecast for our area is extremely tricky as the exact track of the low will determine precipitation type and areas on the typical northwest side of the system will have likely winter storm levels of snow accumulations. This morning, the low track still appears to be across the western third of the forecast area through North Central Ohio. The 00z deterministic GFS appears to be the furthest west with the low track through Toledo and into SE Michigan, while the other solutions are further east. For now, have a forecast that would represent the low moving through a rough Marion-Sandusky line to be in the mean of guidance and perhaps a bit further west than yesterday`s suite. With that track, for Tuesday night into Wednesday, the warm front will enter the region from the south and expect widespread snow across the area. All areas will get at least 2 to 3+ inches of snow right in time for or during the Wednesday morning commute and suspect that a winter headline will be needed for everyone just for that impact. The warm front will push further north into the forecast area and precipitation will change from snow to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and rain for most areas with the warm nose aloft. A healthy snowpack that has developed across the region from yesterday`s snow may bias for a longer duration of frozen precipitation with cold surface temperatures and perhaps even more mix is needed than what is in this morning`s forecast. Eventually, rain will be the dominant p-type for portions of the forecast area as temperatures at the surface exceed 32 degrees in the warm sector of the low. Have biased high temperatures lower than guidance given the area`s snowpack, but still think much of the area gets above 32 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. The area that will not see a change over to the wintry mix will be the areas northwest of the low track where thermal profiles will stay below freezing, and the mostly likely candidate in our forecast area is the Toledo metro. This area would then get another round of 2 to 3+ inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Will acknowledge that some neighboring forecast offices have hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for portions of Northwest Ohio, given the current mean forecast blend for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The concern that exists for our area is that it would not take too much of a shift west in the low track (even just 20-50 miles) for higher snow amounts in our NW Ohio counties to be axed in half or more and the event to just stay an advisory worthy event. One thing evident in the setup of the event is that while a broader neutrally-tilted trough will support the system through the duration of the event, a shortwave aloft will move through the flow with the surface low and try to make this trough more negatively-tilted in our region. This may allow for the low track to drift west just enough for the whole forecast area to see other p-types than snow. There is still plenty of time to gain more confidence in the forecast track and p-type changes as precipitation is still about 48 hours away. With that, have passed on any headline issuance for now to avoid any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations. Believe that some winter headline will be needed for the area at some point, but will let another forecast cycle or two occur to see if better consensus can exist for our area to message the weather appropriately.
The cold front with the low will sweep across the area on Wednesday night as the low departs to the northeast. Any non-snow will switch back to snow with widespread light snow accumulations expected. 

 

[easton229]

9 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

Riding the line here in NW Ohio. Long write-up in the AFD from Cleveland this morning in spoiler. 

Of note:

- Current thinking is low moves from Marion to Sandusky. 
- Current snowpack could lead to longer period of frozen precipitation vs switch to all rain in warm sector. 
- Not pulling trigger on any headlines for a couple more cycles because even as small as a 20-mile shift would be difference between warning and advisory criteria for the area. Want to avoid “any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations.”

Probably all good calls at this point for this area. 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A potent low pressure system and winter storm will impact the central United States on Tuesday night and this system will move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing a wide range of weather and possible impacts for the middle of the week. This forecast for our area is extremely tricky as the exact track of the low will determine precipitation type and areas on the typical northwest side of the system will have likely winter storm levels of snow accumulations. This morning, the low track still appears to be across the western third of the forecast area through North Central Ohio. The 00z deterministic GFS appears to be the furthest west with the low track through Toledo and into SE Michigan, while the other solutions are further east. For now, have a forecast that would represent the low moving through a rough Marion-Sandusky line to be in the mean of guidance and perhaps a bit further west than yesterday`s suite. With that track, for Tuesday night into Wednesday, the warm front will enter the region from the south and expect widespread snow across the area. All areas will get at least 2 to 3+ inches of snow right in time for or during the Wednesday morning commute and suspect that a winter headline will be needed for everyone just for that impact. The warm front will push further north into the forecast area and precipitation will change from snow to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and rain for most areas with the warm nose aloft. A healthy snowpack that has developed across the region from yesterday`s snow may bias for a longer duration of frozen precipitation with cold surface temperatures and perhaps even more mix is needed than what is in this morning`s forecast. Eventually, rain will be the dominant p-type for portions of the forecast area as temperatures at the surface exceed 32 degrees in the warm sector of the low. Have biased high temperatures lower than guidance given the area`s snowpack, but still think much of the area gets above 32 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. The area that will not see a change over to the wintry mix will be the areas northwest of the low track where thermal profiles will stay below freezing, and the mostly likely candidate in our forecast area is the Toledo metro. This area would then get another round of 2 to 3+ inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Will acknowledge that some neighboring forecast offices have hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for portions of Northwest Ohio, given the current mean forecast blend for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The concern that exists for our area is that it would not take too much of a shift west in the low track (even just 20-50 miles) for higher snow amounts in our NW Ohio counties to be axed in half or more and the event to just stay an advisory worthy event. One thing evident in the setup of the event is that while a broader neutrally-tilted trough will support the system through the duration of the event, a shortwave aloft will move through the flow with the surface low and try to make this trough more negatively-tilted in our region. This may allow for the low track to drift west just enough for the whole forecast area to see other p-types than snow. There is still plenty of time to gain more confidence in the forecast track and p-type changes as precipitation is still about 48 hours away. With that, have passed on any headline issuance for now to avoid any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations. Believe that some winter headline will be needed for the area at some point, but will let another forecast cycle or two occur to see if better consensus can exist for our area to message the weather appropriately.
The cold front with the low will sweep across the area on Wednesday night as the low departs to the northeast. Any non-snow will switch back to snow with widespread light snow accumulations expected. 

 

Snow will be falling before DTX issues any headlines lol

[Pros3lyte]

6 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Snow will be falling before DTX issues any headlines lol

Looks like my neck of the woods is gonna catch the northern edge of the shield. Need this thing to move west/north!

[Pros3lyte]

DTX discussion say 4-7 inches south of 69 and 2-4 north.

Ugh. Such a disappointment. That’s not even WWA criteria for us I’m pretty sure.

[NWOhioChaser]

13ABC’s Ross Ellet’s early thoughts on amounts as of this morning. He mentions mixing will be prevalent for the eastern portion of the area and track can still change with time( and a few models have the rain/snow line further NW)

Don’t want to jinx it but I think we’ll see some wobbles north today…

Edited January 23, 2023 by NWOhioChaser