January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

8 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

But boy is that sucker determined to cut up into Indiana.

Will have to see if it's still disconnected from its ensembles or not

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hate to mention this but severe weather is expected along the Gulf coast. This'll rob moisture from areas to the north. 

Winter weather advisory here. Threshold is only an inch here and I think that's a pretty safe floor with this event. We're currently expecting 2-4 inches of snow but I'm skeptical about getting the upper-end there because convection is expected in southeast Texas when it's supposed to snow here. But we've only had a trace of QPF here since November, and snow total is sitting at 0.3" for the winter. So anything would be great.

Edited January 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Hiramite]

15 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

18z RDPS..

That cut-off from SW to NE thru OH has been exceedingly the last few years. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Will have to see if it's still disconnected from its ensembles or not

I'd put $$$ on that being the case

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ooh, 18z GFS with a jog north for me. We definitely have this system sampled so any jump could be the beginning of something.

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[NWOhioChaser]

23 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

18z GFS has a 995 over indy tracking in to NW OH

Oh boy here we go again…wants to tease a dry slot party coming through Toledo.

Edited January 22, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[SNOWBOB11]

Weather office has issued special weather statement already for this system which is really early. GFS has been super consistent in putting me in the bullseye with 10” or so but of course it’s still a few days out.

[Harberr62]

From Chicago:

Quote

The 12z operational runs and their respective ensembles really didn`t depict any changes that graduate from the noise level to something that is noteworthy with the mid-week system. The 12z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are actually in remarkably good agreement with each other through 12z Wednesday. Later Wednesday into Wednesday night, the operational GFS does bend the surface low track back a bit farther west than most of its ensemble members and the ECMWF and EPS. As far as sensible weather conditions go, really no meaningful differences between these models, both have the swath of heavier snow just to the south and east of our CWA. However, both also have a broader area of lighter snow blanketing most of our CWA farther to the north and west of the band of heavier snow than is typical with most of these mid-latitude cyclones. This is likely a result of constructive interaction with the aforementioned northern stream shortwave trough digging south just to the northwest of the southern stream cyclone to our southeast. Current model QPF for late Tuesday night into Wednesday combined with the somewhat marginal thermal profiles, looks to favor a 1-3 or 2-4 inch type snow along and north of I-80. Farther south, particularly across northwest Indiana, if current runs were to verify, accums would get solidly into advisory level criteria. Some guidance is showing some enhanced QPF over northeast IL associated with some lake enhancement, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Guidance is in good agreement that air temps will probably be a hair above freezing by then, and if today is any indication, snow may struggle to accumulate much during the afternoon. In addition, lake effect parameters appear quite marginal for lake enhancement with shallow tops to the lake induced convective layer and weak instability owing to the lack of any strong push of cold air. This makes me somewhat skeptical of the models showing significant enhancement to the QPF as a result of the lake. Finally, while there is (and has been for a couple runs) pretty solid model and ensemble agreement in the handling of this system, it is still quite plausible that guidance could change. While guidance never really truly phased that northern stream shortwave with the cut off low over the southwest, there certainly seems to be some interaction with the northern stream wave perhaps pulling the southern stream wave a bit farther north, and this certainly seems to be resulting in a broader snow area on the NW side of this cyclone. Models are notorious for struggling both with the movement and timing of cut off lows (like the one digging into the southwest) and also can struggle at times handling the interaction of northern and southern stream waves, like is progged mid-week. All of this to say, that current strong model agreement doesn`t necessarily equate with high confidence in the forecast. If the timing or amplitude of either wave changes much, then the degree of interaction could change. Less interaction could result in a sharper cut off to the snow on the northwest flank of the system, or a track farther south could lessen our snow amounts. Conversely, more interaction/phasing and the heavier snow with the TROWAL could result in higher impact accumulations farther north into our CWA. Beyond this southern stream wave`s snow, maintained/nudged up pops Wednesday night into Thursday associated with the northern stream shortwave. Combination of forcing with this trough and instability resulting from the very cold air aloft (-33C at 500mb), should result in a pretty favorable set up for at least scattered snow showers. Some indication that we could see a brief break in the snow shower chances (at least in these latest runs) Thursday night, before the next northern stream trough moves across the region Friday. Guidance remains rather inconsistent with the handling of the individual waves, and to an extent, with the overall pattern by Friday into next weekend. Given the lower confidence, made no changes to NBM, which does have snow shower chances with the shortwave Friday then potentially another more impressive system later in the weekend or early next week.

 

[Grace]

18z GEFS...small wobble east

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

23 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Will have to see if it's still disconnected from its ensembles or not

 

16 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I'd put $$$ on that being the case

Lol not a single member

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS mean

[JayPSU]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GEFS mean

I’ll take that all day every day.

[Hiramite]

I know how much we all love these.  From around 3PM today.

 

[Hiramite]

The WPC's Heavy Snow Discussion mentions one of our forum members.

Quote

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...Ozarks to the central Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast... Days 2-3... The upper trough swinging across the southern Plains will continue to take a negative-tilt, supporting the intensification of a surface low as it tracks northeast from eastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid South Tuesday night. There is a growing signal for banded moderate to heavy snow developing on the northwest side of the low. Here also, favorable upper forcing in concert with low-to-mid level frontogenesis are expected to contribute to the potential for mesoscale banding and heavy rates beginning across eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks starting Tuesday night, before lifting northeast across southern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley. WPC probabilities indicate that accumulations of 4 inches or more likely from the Ozarks across southern Missouri, with amounts of 8 inches or more possible, especially in the higher elevations of the Ozarks. On Wednesday, the system is forecast to track progressively to the northeast into the Great Lakes, supporting a stripe of at least a few inches of snow from southern Illinois to southern Michigan. Within this stripe, mesocale banding is likely to contribute to areas of heavier totals. Latest WPC guidance indicates a greater threat for higher amounts centered across central to northeastern Indiana Wednesday morning.

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Hiramite

[Hiramite]

And from the "if you ain't first you're last" department, an EARLY regional snowfall map.

[CIWeather]

ILX...

[Jeffro]

15 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

And from the "if you ain't first you're last" department, an EARLY regional snowfall map.

Boy that looks familiar....

[Hiramite]

1 minute ago, Jeffro said:

Boy that looks familiar....

I'll bite...which storm was it?

You gonna be ready with your webcam??

[junior]

Satellite is going to be really cool when it gets going. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by junior

[easton229]

Graphic from DTX. Time stamp on it is odd since this is the first time today I saw this graphic. Lines up fairly well I think with the regional map that@Hiramiteposted.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just had to go look for chap stick for the first time this winter. Found it... it's called tropical lip balm. My chap stick is going to will the models toward more moisture.

Edited January 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[NWOhioChaser]

48 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

And from the "if you ain't first you're last" department, an EARLY regional snowfall map.

 

[GRR]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Just had to go look for chap stick for the first time this winter. Found it... it's called tropical lip balm. My chap stick is going to will the models toward more moisture.

Buy ChopSaver...on Amazon.  The best btw!!

[Jeffro]

57 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I'll bite...which storm was it?

You gonna be ready with your webcam??

Looks like the pre-Christmas storm maps about 2 days out. 
 

As for the webcam, Probably. I need to get some reliability issues worked out. Ive been using a wyze cam v3 with an android emulator but there is firmware that allows for an trap connection which I think wi be much more reliable. 

We’ll see if I can get to it tomorrow. 

 

 

[Ingyball]

Wow, how does one lock in the 21z SREF? I'd take that run in a heartbeat.