January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NKYSnowLover]

Watches now up over AR, MO, IL

[NeXrad]

19 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This weekend into next week has my attention. The ingredients are definitely there for maybe a huge overrunning(ice?) event especially if we lay down this snow pack this week

I hope not ..it would probably mean ice and I already got an ice dam from the Xmas storm that showed itself on a small portion of one of my walls ..the problem of having cathedral ceilings ..probably will never be replicated again so they are hard to fix other than a paint over or drywall repair

Edited January 22, 2023 by NeXrad

[MesoscaleBanding]

3km NAM keeps afternoon highs on Mon./Tues. in the low 30s for areas that built snowpack today....You'd think those areas would be starting with a ~2" compacted base when the new snow moves in on Wed. morning. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Very healthy 6-8" front end thumping for the I-70 corridor on the 18z NAM

[Harberr62]

Nws Indy:

Quote

A significant winter storm is likely across central Indiana through
the mid-week.  Following the eventually-supporting short wave`s
recent sampling by western CONUS upper air observations (as it
currently dives southward along the Nevada/Utah border)...latest
guidance is now predicting a possibly even more-potent H500 short
wave progressing across Texas and up to near the mouth of the Ohio
River by dawn Wednesday.  Surface cyclogenesis is expected to
meanwhile advance north-northeastward from Louisiana to the Ohio
Valley. Appears the potential for the system to occlude near our
region`s southeastern zones is also increasing, with exact surface
low track perhaps dependent on how the main H500 vort max interacts
with another, interior short wave along the Red River of the North
as the system first enters our CWA.  Latest model trends are also
suggesting a strengthening H700 low tracking near northwestern
counties during the day Wednesday...and perhaps a rather brief low-
level warm nose closer to the Ohio Valley as the surface low first
approaches early on Wednesday.  Higher confidence in the system
evolving amid these features as it enters/crosses central Indiana
Wednesday...less certainty so far in exactly when and where
resultant p-type and precip-rate changes will occur.

It does appear that at least the southeastern half of the region may
be dealing with some snow/rain/snow changes and/or mixtures through
the early portions of the event...and that snow will become the
predominant precipitation type for at least the majority of the
region during the storm`s later portion. Any potentially broader
region of rain/snow mix early on...should tighten while sliding
eastward as the system occludes and the H700 low crosses Indiana...
bringing potentially heavy snowfall rates with it.  Suspect any
antecedent warm/wet ground will not significantly limit snowfall
accumulation once all-snow takes over given solid forcing...as well
as given the potential for better snow to liquid ratios with
forecast soundings showing a saturated DGZ during best forcing
around the Wednesday morning/daytime period.  Sleet and freezing do
are not expected to be major players in this rather quick and potent
system, yet cannot be ruled out, especially across southern counties
where an any elevated warm layer is more likely.

This forecast update is providing out first glimpse at NBM snowfall
grids which appear in reasonable agreement with ensemble means...
showing an axis of greatest snowfall near/north of the I-70 corridor.
The values (totals through 00z Wednesday evening) increase along
this axis to the northeast, which follows the storm`s
intensification and arrival of colder air as the entire system
slides northeastward.  Wednesday night should feature remnant
flurries and snow showers as the departing and further-occluding
low`s trough axis lingers over the region...and the secondary/
interior short wave spins across Missouri and into the Midwest.
Temperatures should hold around 32F through much of the event...
before readings drop after dark Wednesday night, into the 25-30F
range by dawn Thursday. Any still-wet surfaces would certain re-
freeze through the Wednesday night period.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Hiramite

[Grace]

8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

3km NAM keeps afternoon highs on Mon./Tues. in the low 30s for areas that built snowpack today....You'd think those areas would be starting with a ~2" compacted base when the new snow moves in on Wed. morning. 

 

 

[Central Illinois]

18z NAM

 

1-2" in Ohio is from today's snow

Edited January 22, 2023 by Central Illinois

[MesoscaleBanding]

Models continue to hammer a zone from eastern OK to NW Arkansas to southern Mizzou as the big winners with this system. With ample moisture available, I think there's going to be a 20" total down in that area somewhere.

[Hassaywx1223]

4 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

18z NAM

I’ll take it in a heart beat 

[Ingyball]

I'm putting all my stock into the NAM. 🚀 NAM coin to the moon! 🚀 💎🤲

[CIWeather]

Just now, Hassaywx1223 said:

I’ll take it in a heart beat 

You and me both. Give me around 6" and I'll be happy.

[CIWeather]

This is from DVN (Davenport's) AFD update. Found the bolded part to be interesting...

Focus will be with a system at the start of the period in the
Southwest (vicinity of NM/W TX/N Old Mexico), which the models
eject east-northeastward reaching the TN/OH valleys mid-week
then lifting into the Northeast. General consensus of the
determinstic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest the
system and greatest impacts likely just south of the area. That
being said, from the preponderance of the guidance it would
appear as though at least south/east portions of the area are
likely to be brushed by the northern edge of the deformation
zone and the potential for some accumulating snow. Still too
early to say exactly how much snow, as this will depend
on the track, which is still uncertain. I do have some concern
that the system could end up tracking a little further north, and
this is a result of the dprog/dt of the GFS and ECMWF, which are
trending further southwest and stronger with a northern stream
wave. If this trend were to continue the interaction could bring
the southwest system a bit further north and precipitation amounts
would subsequently go up. For now though, not seeing too many
hints of this and as such accumulations in the guidance are
generally light, but any shift in track will impact amounts and so
this will continue to bear watching.

[NeXrad]

Louisville's NWS afternoon discussion mentions the dreaded dry slot again...if there is a dry slot Louisville will experience it ...it's totally a running joke with another weather geek friend of mine....maybe I should change my name to Dry Slot

[junior]

30 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

3km NAM keeps afternoon highs on Mon./Tues. in the low 30s for areas that built snowpack today....You'd think those areas would be starting with a ~2" compacted base when the new snow moves in on Wed. morning. 

Yea we've already compacted alot today. We'll see but I doubt much is left Wednesday to affect anything..

[CIWeather]

1 minute ago, NeXrad said:

Louisville's NWS afternoon discussion mentions the dreaded dry slot again...if there is a dry slot Louisville will experience it ...it's totally a running joke with another weather geek friend of mine....maybe I should change my name to Dry Slot

Yeah, the dreaded dry slot. I remember one year that we had a WSWarning here and we were supposed to get like 10" overnight. Woke up the next morning and there was nothing on the ground; got completely dry-slotted.

[BuckeyeGal]

2 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

Yeah, the dreaded dry slot. I remember one year that we had a WSWarning here and we were supposed to get like 10" overnight. Woke up the next morning and there was nothing on the ground; got completely dry-slotted.

I would have cried. 

[CIWeather]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

I would have cried. 

Oh, I about flipped a table lol

[Snow____]

4 minutes ago, junior said:

Yea we've already compacted alot today. We'll see but I doubt much is left Wednesday to affect anything..

As do I. It’s already melting and with 2 days off above freezing it will be gone 

[ceciliaky]

5 minutes ago, NeXrad said:

Louisville's NWS afternoon discussion mentions the dreaded dry slot again...if there is a dry slot Louisville will experience it ...it's totally a running joke with another weather geek friend of mine....maybe I should change my name to Dry Slot

keep that nonsense out of E'town, please and thank you. LOL

 

[easton229]

Looks like we will prolly end up with a WWA type event here in MI. Hope Ohio gets their big one here and we can cash in big on the next one.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Slight shift east on the ICON

[MesoscaleBanding]

ICON:

[MesoscaleBanding]

3 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

As do I. It’s already melting and with 2 days off above freezing it will be gone 

Down your way further south I guess that's possible since you got warmer today, but I have a hard time seeing 4-5" of high water content snow completely disappearing in January with highs in the low 30s. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[BuckeyeGal]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Slight shift east on the ICON

Just that subtle nudge had big implications for Ohio. Yeesh.

[Crowbar]

6 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

Yeah, the dreaded dry slot. I remember one year that we had a WSWarning here and we were supposed to get like 10" overnight. Woke up the next morning and there was nothing on the ground; got completely dry-slotted.

That reminds me of an event in I think 2005 - went to the office (I'm in a profession where Feb-April is a busy time of year, and back then wasn't set up to work from home), and there was a WSW calling for around 10" or so.  Worked a few hours, looked out the window, and nothing.  Checked the NWS website, got downgraded to a WWA.  Worked a few more hours, looked outside, and nothing.  NWS site had no warnings or advisories.   Not sure if it was a dry slot, forecast fail, or what, but it was disappointing.