January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[MesoscaleBanding]

Hey central Ohio - should we lock this up? 🤣

[MesoscaleBanding]

Would be nice to see a bit more cold air involvement with both this storm & the 21-23rd system. So marginal, even with a decent track.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Pghsnow]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Oh sweet baby Jesus 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

[junior]

Lock that Euro run in thanks. I noticed the 06z GFS had a significant difference at h5 compared to previous runs. Looks like some type of sampling or change among the structure occurred. We’ll see at 12z if that is confirmed. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by junior

[Grace]

This is starting to look like a sloppy mess. I kind of envisioned colder slamming in with this. Need that cold air advertised by Euro to get involved earlier.

[BuckeyeGal]

And.. again.. it's the Canadian & Euro against the GFS (though if my amateur eyes didn't deceive me, the GFS shifted slightly toward them at 6z). 

[MaineJay]

Looks like 2 shortwaves sliding down the front range. GFS brings them in tandem, already phased, so it looks more like one shortwave over the CONUS.  All these are 0z runs.

 

Ukie keeps them quite separated.

 

ECMWF appears to be a middle ground.

 

[BuckeyeGal]

7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks like 2 shortwaves sliding down the front range. GFS brings them in tandem, already phased, so it looks more like one shortwave over the CONUS.  All these are 0z runs.

 

Ukie keeps them quite separated.

 

ECMWF appears to be a middle ground.

 

I hope the middle ground is right, lol. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

wrong thread. it was only a matter of time

Edited January 18, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

just an observation until we get to the 12z, but this is probably driving the difference between the ECM and others we saw last night. I want to believe the ECM is leading the pack, but the clustering shows there would be less of a neutral PNA  and thus *could* validate the further west tracks. Although the 6z GFS flipped again back east so we'll see

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

the "mean" was definitely west on the 00z EPS

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[BuckeyeGal]

12z GFS looks like a transfer again (with my amateur eyes). Did not scoot south this time, though. Seemed to “catch” better.

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[easton229]

10 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Well now that’s something I could get behind especially with the snow map that is in its wake.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Grace]

18 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

If the Arctic air is faster this would be a major winter storm. We still have time. That's my hope. If not...then the hope is a heavy wet snow thump. 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

the "mean" was definitely west on the 00z EPS

 

 If it trends West this early it'll trend East later.