January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

I believe GFS is the only one showing temps getting that cold here in a week though.

Yeah its been off and on between all models, even the ensembles. The runs where thay lobe of the PV drops in have been bitter but the runs where the SE ridge flexes keep it bottled up in Canada 

[Hiramite]

12Z Low Party Tracker:

As compared to 0Z, the Canadian and GFS crept east, the Euro a bit west on its northern end.

I added the Ukie in pencil, no dots or pressures (too cluttered already.)   I'm also including the 0Z to compare.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Hiramite

[MesoscaleBanding]

Geez - that entire Euro run was uninspiring from start to finish - full on torch by late next weekend into next Monday...Kiss any snowpack goodbye if the Euro is correct. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Mulaman984]

EPS looks better than the euro OP

[MesoscaleBanding]

Canadian Ens. mean track is pretty far SE...

 

[SOMOSnow]

12z Euro Control 

[SNOWBOB11]

41 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Geez - that entire Euro run was uninspiring from start to finish - full on torch by late next weekend into next Monday...Kiss any snowpack goodbye if the Euro is correct. 

A lot different to the GFS that’s for sure. Looked a bit odd with the follow up systems track which I think pulled in warm air.

[SOMOSnow]

When is full sampling likely for this system? I'm guessing by tomorrow night but not certain. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[easton229]

20 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z Euro Control 

That is a nice hit for just about everyone here. I could live with that.

[Grace]

Not sure if anyone posted the 12z Canadian Ensemble mean...but good grief did it go south!

Last 3 runs. 

 

[SOMOSnow]

6 minutes ago, Grace said:

Not sure if anyone posted the 12z Canadian Ensemble mean...but good grief did it go south!

Last 3 runs. 

 

I posted it on page 20 

[Ingyball]

Likely what screws me with this system is that the models do a costal transfer to either just off or a little west of the Texas coast with the surface low, which sends everything south. If that surface low that starts to form in the western panhandle were to move northeast or even east-northeast, I'd be sitting pretty. 

 

[SOMOSnow]

1 minute ago, Ingyball said:

Likely what screws me with this system is that the models do a costal transfer to either just off or a little west of the Texas coast with the surface low, which sends everything south. If that surface low that starts to form in the western panhandle were to move northeast or even east-northeast, I'd be sitting pretty. 

 

No reason it can't. Not sampled yet. Runs yesterday were close to that. 

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

No reason it can't. Not sampled yet. Runs yesterday were close to that. 

Coastal transfers are definitely tricky, especially down in Texas, much more rare than on the East Coast. They still do happen, though. Sampling probably won't give us our answer, though. Might not have that until 24 hours out lol.

 

 

 

 

[Grace]

5 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Coastal transfers are definitely tricky, especially down in Texas, much more rare than on the East Coast. They still do happen, though. Sampling probably won't give us our answer, though. Might not have that until 24 hours out lol.

 

 

 

 

 

My area does well when new lows develop on Gulf. But it all depends. Still early with this. Monday is more note worthy 

[junior]

Windshield wiper in full effect with these models. We have seen a weakening trend with most storms past few winters which tends to be correct however QPF increases as we head into showtime. Seen it many times.

[SOMOSnow]

18z NAM has this thing going robust early like yesterday's runs were showing. It's in its long range now tho so it's a fwiw. I tend to believe we will get the typical NW shift late if this storm trends strong and with some new snowpack to North. Not a major shift imo.Time will tell the tale, tho..

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[snowlover2]

Last frame of 18z NAM.

[SOMOSnow]

👇 18z NAM 2 day snowfall totals through end of run. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[BuckeyeGal]

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Last frame of 18z NAM.

Look at that comma-shape.

[easton229]

Hope for at least one long range NAM run that is completely off the walls 

[Ingyball]

Let's see if this random 18z NAM run can be the start of a good trend here like that 6z GFS run in December started the extreme dry trend lol. Or, it's typical hour 84 18z NAM nonsense and we continue with the weak and southeast trends.

[Central Illinois]

3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

But it's very clear, the 2022 trend of weaker is playing out. We've gone from 985 ish to it never goes sub 1000mb

Yep its happened every storm so far this year were gonna be lucky to see a inch by the time this starts!

Edited January 21, 2023 by Central Illinois

[Central Illinois]

2 hours ago, Hiramite said:

12Z Low Party Tracker:

As compared to 0Z, the Canadian and GFS crept east, the Euro a bit west on its northern end.

I added the Ukie in pencil, no dots or pressures (too cluttered already.)   I'm also including the 0Z to compare.

Normally a track like that would be big time snow here IN and NW half of OH not this year lol

[Ingyball]

ICON has actually not been bad for me Precip wise. Just too warm for snow.