January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[BuckeyeGal]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Depends on model of choice, I was just taking a look at that, looks like early morning through midday for front end on GFS. Timing keeps getting pushed back with a slower progression 

Well dangit. I thought it was like 1a.. need to go back and look.

[BuckeyeGal]

Me like the Canadian.

[beaver56]

55 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Icon is struggling to pull in cold air as it did 00z and 06z

The Germans know nothing about weather.  They did a bang up job bombing Pearl Harbor though. 

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

What could go wrong here? 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Shrinking

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Razor sharp cutoff

[SOMOSnow]

Hoping the GFS is on right track with snow amounts. Didn't like seeing drop from Canadian. Euro will ve interesting. Seem to be sitting in good spot for any NW shift. 👇 Black dot is me. 👇

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Razor sharp cutoff

It was massively better (again for our area) than its 0Z though.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

It was massively better (again for our area) than its 0Z though.

Indeed

[Mulaman984]

1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

It was massively better (again for our area) than its 0Z though.

Agree (for our area). Just looking at trends. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Mulaman984 said:

Agree (for our area). Just looking at trends. 

Yep. To me.. it moved in a good direction. 🙂

[SOMOSnow]

12z GFS 4 day snowfall through Thursday night. 👇

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[FortySixAnd32]

I hate to bring up the WAA battle that ALWAYS seems to take place around I-70 and I-71. I swear it's a curse and not a weather phenomenon......🤷‍♂️

[easton229]

9 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z GFS 4 day snowfall through Thursday night. 👇

Woof. Starting to look like a general 1-3” for me here in MI unless we get a significant NW shift that likely won’t happen. Another disappointment in this horrible winter. Hoping the Canadien can come out victorious.

[SOMOSnow]

12 Canadian ensemble mean through Thursday night. 👇

[junior]

The polar vortex makes an appearance end of the month on the GFs. Typical time too. 

[NKYSnowLover]

I hope several of us get snow as this winter outside of a 4 day period in December has been terrible.

That said, I do think there needs to be caution in this type of setup. Lurking in the background, we are posting all of the 10:1 snow maps only. The problem is that that will represent the best case scenario in this setup.

To illustrate this, I'll use the hot off the press 12z GFS through hour 120, but every model shows the same thing.

First, the 10:1 map over the 4 day period. No surprise, it matches many of the maps posted before this one.

Now let's look at the Kuchera map. Notice how the amounts are LESS on the Kuchera map. This suggests ratios in the 7-8:1 area vs the standard 10:1. Given how marginal the temps are within the entire column of air (even above freezing in some spots), this makes a lot of sense. Melting snow while falling compacts into wet cement on the ground.

Now, both the 10:1 snow map AND the Kuchera snow map are translations of QPF to the appropriate ratio to estimate the amount of snowfall that will fall. Keyword: "fall" , but not necessarily "accumulate". To see accumulation, we should be looking at positive depth change. The positive depth change will tell you how much the ground depth will increase, but doesn't factor in ground melting after it's fallen. Looking at this map, you'll see that marginal air temps + marginal ground temps creates an uphill battle for snow to accumulate. It can happen, but it has to be falling heavy and for an extended period of time.

Long story short, the answer to what's coming is always told through multiple data cuts, it is rarely told in one cut.

Edited January 21, 2023 by NKYSnowLover

[beaver56]

3 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

I hope several of us get snow as this winter outside of a 4 day period in December has been terrible.

That said, I do think there needs to be caution in this type of setup. Lurking in the background, we are posting all of the 10:1 snow maps only. The problem is that that will represent the best case scenario in this setup.

To illustrate this, I'll use the hot off the press 12z GFS through hour 120, but every model shows the same thing.

First, the 10:1 map over the 4 day period. No surprise, it matches many of the maps posted before this one.

Now let's look at the Kuchera map. Notice how the amounts are LESS on the Kuchera map. This suggests ratios in the 7-8:1 area vs the standard 10:1. Given how marginal the temps are within the entire column of air (even above freezing in some spots), this makes a lot of sense. Melting snow while falling compacts into wet cement on the ground.

Now, both the 10:1 snow map AND the Kuchera snow map are translations of QPF to the appropriate ratio to estimate the amount of snowfall that will fall. Keyword: "fall" , but not necessarily "accumulate". To see accumulation, we should be looking at positive depth change. The positive depth change will tell you how much the ground depth will increase, but doesn't factor in ground melting after it's fallen. Looking at this map, you'll see that marginal air temps + marginal ground temps creates an uphill battle for snow to accumulate. It can happen, but it has to be falling heavy and for an extended period of time.

Good post. 

[beaver56]

3 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

I hope several of us get snow as this winter outside of a 4 day period in December has been terrible.

That said, I do think there needs to be caution in this type of setup. Lurking in the background, we are posting all of the 10:1 snow maps only. The problem is that that will represent the best case scenario in this setup.

To illustrate this, I'll use the hot off the press 12z GFS through hour 120, but every model shows the same thing.

First, the 10:1 map over the 4 day period. No surprise, it matches many of the maps posted before this one.

Now let's look at the Kuchera map. Notice how the amounts are LESS on the Kuchera map. This suggests ratios in the 7-8:1 area vs the standard 10:1. Given how marginal the temps are within the entire column of air (even above freezing in some spots), this makes a lot of sense. Melting snow while falling compacts into wet cement on the ground.

Now, both the 10:1 snow map AND the Kuchera snow map are translations of QPF to the appropriate ratio to estimate the amount of snowfall that will fall. Keyword: "fall" , but not necessarily "accumulate". To see accumulation, we should be looking at positive depth change. The positive depth change will tell you how much the ground depth will increase, but doesn't factor in ground melting after it's fallen. Looking at this map, you'll see that marginal air temps + marginal ground temps creates an uphill battle for snow to accumulate. It can happen, but it has to be falling heavy and for an extended period of time.

Good post. 

[RobB]

4 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

I hope several of us get snow as this winter outside of a 4 day period in December has been terrible.

That said, I do think there needs to be caution in this type of setup. Lurking in the background, we are posting all of the 10:1 snow maps only. The problem is that that will represent the best case scenario in this setup.

To illustrate this, I'll use the hot off the press 12z GFS through hour 120, but every model shows the same thing.

First, the 10:1 map over the 4 day period. No surprise, it matches many of the maps posted before this one.

Now let's look at the Kuchera map. Notice how the amounts are LESS on the Kuchera map. This suggests ratios in the 7-8:1 area vs the standard 10:1. Given how marginal the temps are within the entire column of air (even above freezing in some spots), this makes a lot of sense. Melting snow while falling compacts into wet cement on the ground.

Now, both the 10:1 snow map AND the Kuchera snow map are translations of QPF to the appropriate ratio to estimate the amount of snowfall that will fall. Keyword: "fall" , but not necessarily "accumulate". To see accumulation, we should be looking at positive depth change. The positive depth change will tell you how much the ground depth will increase, but doesn't factor in ground melting after it's fallen. Looking at this map, you'll see that marginal air temps + marginal ground temps creates an uphill battle for snow to accumulate. It can happen, but it has to be falling heavy and for an extended period of time.

Long story short, the answer to what's coming is always told through multiple data cuts, it is rarely told in one cut.

Yep yep! That's why I've been looking at snow depth maps myself. Not posting many though as I don't want to be too negative. We can all hope to see snows falling then enjoy accumulations that do occur 👍

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS

[Ohiobuckeye45]

UK is way SE (compared to other models)

Edited January 21, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

The big difference is really where it starts to pull north (out of NE MS VS. NW MS)

Edited January 21, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Hiramite]

Just issued at noon.

[Iceresistance]

BAMWX has mentioned that Indy is more likely to have snow than Chicago